Paddington Short

My account, not work. Opinions my own. Not soliciting any service & this is not investment advice or inducement to deal in any investment No financial promotion

[Paddington Short @PaddingtonShort]

Occam's Investment: The investment reliant on the least number of assumptions is most likely to be best

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@John_Hempton @kkmaway @DanielSLoeb1 @BillAckman I believe the term is sex workers

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@John_Hempton @SanderRegter This looks a little bit more than 0.3% of GDP

And certainly think this could get much worse.

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@haveigotnews @JulianClary @jemimajoanna That’s amazing @jemimajoanna
Look forward to watching it and hope you win - of course that will be frustratingly unlikely if you’re on Ian’s team.

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@Parody_PM The Four Twerps

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@RealJimChanos So his car sales are through the floor.
Solar Tiles never happened.
Full self driving seems unlikely without lidar, & nigh on impossible without uber.
Robots seen as highly competitive (and better competitors out there).
So what’s the next big thing to bullshit the market with?

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@TheNorfolkLion

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@TheNorfolkLion Am sure the people in Camden are glad of that

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@SpencerHakimian And republicans are hardly incentivised to fix that if they want to keep people voting for them!

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@xizhang2 @maewald @blickblockwock @BillAckman The problem is both with the system and with Trump.
The US deficit can’t continue forever; at some point it needs to be addressed.
But Trump decided to do so in such an aggressive way that it will massively hurt America and the world. And has destroyed all trust in America.

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@BillAckman For Europe and Japan to do a deal with the US would necessitate a lot of trust - do you see where this is going?

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@BrentAWilliams2 But he’s not saying that you shouldn’t read to your kids.

He is saying every so often be aware that your kids will be advantaged because of it.

ie - realise how fortunate you are and empathise with those less fortunate.

[Paddington Short @PaddingtonShort]

@hassankhan I takes about ten years to spec in a new material and part for an airplane - I used to cover $VCT (victrex - they make PEEK)

So either it takes well over ten years (and that ignores the time taken to acquire the IP and know how) OR they lower safety standards…

[Paddington Short @PaddingtonShort]

@RestIsPolitics @RoryStewartUK @campbellclaret I believe there is a significant probability (25%?) of WW3 in 3 years
Russia v Europe
China v Taiwan (&USA)
USA v Greenland (&maybe Europe)

Economic >>Cold >>Hot War
Never seen this much hatred whipped up
These things have never ended well.

Please tell me I’m wrong (and why!)

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@MinotaurStock @dieworkwear If we decide to place a tariff on US jeans of 10% then I would have to pay 100 for the US jeans, 10 for the tariff and then 22 for the VAT.

So my choice would be 132 or 120 - to buy a £100 pair of jeans

This the tariff would incentivise me to buy British

[Paddington Short @PaddingtonShort]

@MinotaurStock @dieworkwear The big distinction is that VAT does not give a competitive advantage to the domestic manufacturer as the consumer pays the same VAT or Sales Tax.

If I want to buy a pair of £100 jeans from RL (whether made in China or USA) or from Blackhorse Lane Ateliers I pay 20 of VAT.

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@Scaramucci Too good

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@RoryStewartUK Not all “finance people”

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@Scaramucci Can you imagine how much the live will own the republicans if Soros starts shorting the dollar😂

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@Scaramucci Foreign ownership of US equities at ATH; of treasuries above average (but falling over last few years)

A mean reversion of both leads to stock market collapse, lower dollar, higher US interest rates (likely).

What trump is doing could lead to worse - short US the obvious trade

[Paddington Short @PaddingtonShort]

@RoryStewartUK @elonmusk Like all self-declared deities - he made it in his own image.
(Likely after too much special K and an accident in his pants)