Par Value

Daily market news, trade ideas & options. Macro + technicals. Not financial advice.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Let's be clear about what this actually is.
Index providers didn't change their rules out of goodwill. They changed them because SpaceX is too big and too politically connected to exclude. A $1.5 trillion company going public and not landing in passive funds immediately would be embarrassing for the index industry.
But the consequence is real: $30 trillion in retirement money gets forced into SpaceX at whatever valuation Elon and the bankers set. No price discovery. No earnings track record requirement. No seasoning period to let the market find fair value.
The rules that protected passive investors since 2002 were waived in weeks.
If SpaceX is overvalued at IPO, every 401k in America owns it at the top.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Buying some Walmart here, more of a hedge than anything. Walmart is a staple and with the increasing possibility of a recession/ AI bubble I think its smart to get into a business that is not only super solid but thrives when people are running low on cash. Coca-cola is another good one if you are looking for something different, it's very resistant. $WMT $KO

[Par Value @ParValue26]

ISM Services Prices at 71.3. highest since August 2022. not a single commodity reported down in price in May.
Bessent called inflation a short term blip two days ago.
the data disagrees. services prices lead CPI by roughly three months. if the historical relationship holds, CPI could be pushing above 5% by late summer from 3.8% today.
the Fed cut narrative was already on life support. this chart is the plug being pulled.
jobs report tomorrow at 8:30. if payrolls come in hot on top of this, the rate cut conversation doesn't just get delayed — it gets replaced by a hike conversation.
the market is not pricing any of this.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@unusual_whales Great to hear

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

SpaceX will reportedly not be fast-tracked into the S&P 500, per the S&P DJI

[Par Value @ParValue26]

$ORCL quietly getting upgraded while everyone watches $AVGO sell off.
Citi raised Oracle's price target to $330, calling it one of the strongest revenue and EPS acceleration stories in tech as AI contracts ramp.
this is the part of the AI trade most people are sleeping on. everyone chases the chip names. Oracle is the database and cloud infrastructure layer that actually has to store, process, and serve all of that AI workload.
$AVGO gets the headline. $ORCL gets the contract.
worth paying attention to before the crowd catches up.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Oil was at $95 two days ago. that number is about to move.
energy names that ran on Hormuz risk are going to give some of it back. $XLE, $OXY, $CVX worth watching into the close.
the geopolitical premium that built up all week just got partially unwound in one sentence at a House hearing.
markets reprice fast when the headline changes. this is one of those moments

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@unusual_whales I can't imagine what number the stock will be trading at when the end of the day comes.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

That's not a projection. that's a narrative being handed to retail investors the week of the IPO.
$1.75 trillion valuation. $75 billion raise. roadshow starts today. and now Goldman is publishing 100x revenue forecasts.
the timing is not a coincidence.
SpaceX may well be a generational company. Starlink is real. the launch business is real. but 100x revenue projections published during an IPO roadshow are marketing, not analysis.
buy the business if you believe in it. just know what you're reading and who's saying it.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Karp is right about the moat and most people still don't understand it.
AI models are becoming commodities. GPT, Claude, Gemini — the gap between them is narrowing. access is cheap. that layer is not where the value accrues long term.
the scarce resource is the data layer underneath. Palantir's Ontology maps a company's entire operational logic into something AI can actually act on. that takes years to build and is nearly impossible to rip out once it's in.
the sales secret isn't the demo. it's that once a customer sees what their own data can do inside Palantir, the competition becomes irrelevant.
$PLTR isn't selling software. it's selling infrastructure that makes everything else work.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

The S&P is at all-time highs. the Dow just set a record. and corporate America is quietly cutting headcount at the fastest pace since the pandemic.
the market is pricing a soft landing. the labor market data is pricing something else.
jobs report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. 93,000 jobs expected. that number just got a lot more interesting.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Breaking:
Jane Street Plans New Data Center As Compute Power Runs Scarce - Bloomberg News

[Par Value @ParValue26]

The world's most advanced semiconductor manufacturer, running $56 billion in capex, still can't keep up with what hyperscalers are ordering.
this is the most important data point in the entire AI trade. demand isn't slowing. the constraint is physical. you can't print leading-edge chips faster than the fabs can build them.
$AVGO down 13% today on a guidance miss. $TSM is telling you the underlying demand that feeds that guidance isn't going anywhere.
the market is repricing valuation. not the cycle.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@boondockmillion @Polymarket Well of course he would, more liquidity for him as well as higher prices.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@StockMKTNewz He's not wrong, everything will be overshadowed by Spacex, OpenAI and Anthropic.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

$UNH up over 5% today while the Nasdaq struggled.
Bank of America upgraded UNH to Buy and raised its price target to $450, citing improving medical cost trends and a favorable Q2 setup. Morgan Stanley followed, raising their target to $453 and maintaining Overweight.
The backstory matters here. UNH lost over $200 billion in market cap across 16 months of compounding crises — a federal criminal investigation, the fatal shooting of CEO Brian Thompson, two earnings disappointments, and a Medicare reimbursement squeeze.
The recovery has been driven by a Q1 EPS beat, improving medical cost ratios, and a Medicare Advantage payment rate increase of 2.48% for 2027 — far better than the near-flat proposal that crushed the stock earlier this year.
Today the Dow hit a record high because of $UNH, $JPM, and $WMT.
the rotation is real. and today it had a name.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

Mid-day checkin, Dow up 827 points to a fresh record. Nasdaq flat. S&P up 0.4%. the rotation out of chips into non-tech is the defining move today.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@unusual_whales I don't think people realize how helpful yet dangerous this is for small retail traders.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

@YodaStockInvest This.

[Par Value @ParValue26]

$CPSH if you look at the price just a few months ago you realize this is actually a pretty good spot, I’m happy with this price up until next earnings. It will go higher once spacex IPO launches, mark my words.