Pat Beck II

Assistant Professor CamEd Business School | @LSEEI Msc | @SciencesPo - Paris M.A. | @Cal BA |Tireless Academic | World Traveler | #Foodie | #ASEAN SEZs | #BRI

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

#PanamaPapers Pandemonium: Why even #Eurosceptics need the #ECB and #bankingunion. @MLP_officiel @OliverNorgrove https://t.co/XXvu2jw9ME

[Deepanshu Mohan @Deepanshu_1810]

Part II column Link: https://t.co/8uXlUpZaQr

This is the second column in the series on China with Prof Kent Deng (@LSEEcHist @LSEnews) diagnosing the current landscape for China’s growth position in extension of its long term model (first part here: https://t.co/TnVMVLL6Rt).

This part explains how China’s credit and debt-driven growth model is nearing its limits. The convergence of demographic, geopolitical and financial conditions that enabled its industrialisation and rapid transformation no longer exist in the same form.

China’s total non-financial debt has now climbed to well above 300% of GDP, up from roughly 135% in 2008. That trajectory is not merely a story of rising leverage. It reflects an economy that increasingly substituted debt and investment for organic household demand… via @thewire_in

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@Deepanshu_1810 @LSEEcHist @JindalGlobalUNI @EACtoPM This sounds similar to @michaelxpettis take on how rebalancing the Chinese economy would mean a boon to Chinese consumers but cost many exporters and SOEs.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@Deepanshu_1810 @UniofOxford Congrats Deepanshu!

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

Thanks to @michaelxpettis for a great lecture on trade and growth at #CamEd Business School today with collaboration with @KAScambodia. Basic takeaways: KH needs to focus on increasing productivity over all else.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@CEP_LSE @andres_bafer @ChrisANeilson So they do both? Where is the trade off?

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@icon_ic Doubtful, me thinks

[Oda Nedregård @NedregardOda]

Very proud and honored to be part of this initiative!

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Oh boy and oh well… I mean they have to if they are to contain the trade deficit which by the way is now back to 2006 levels (as a % of GDP for goods ex-O&G). But this is a very fraught path and chances are high Trump geniuses will actually deliver a good 70s redux playing with this

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline Sorry, definitely not ECON 1

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline https://t.co/aW2VIPZfP3 for teaching the theory. You would have to provide the case study for application and to measure how well it fits.

[Danielle K-O @DanielleRose84]

With a lot of help of some researchers who did not want to reveal themselves for this one, I dipped my toe into the underground world of USDT use in Cambodia. It seems very likely that some is tied to the cybercrime industry https://t.co/Us93ZxwDCm

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@ritthyou He will be busy. It seems like a nice legacy project for Hun Sen.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline I would need to know if it is upper or lower div and a major requirement to better suppose.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline A sometimes scattered but my insightful take on the situation: https://t.co/j32UzpjQBh

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@ALogins You send remarks? Wow.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline interesting paper

[Nathaniel Hendren @nhendren82]

New Paper Alert 🚨

We estimate the returns to IRS tax audits across the income distribution. We find $1 of IRS spending on audits of top earners delivers more than $12 of tax revenue. Along the way, we provide new evidence of the strong specific deterrence effects of audits. 1/:

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline @delong @cafreiman The commodity limitation is falty though and seems to break down when use/exchange value run into the commons. How is conservation of (or doing nothing to) a forest to be valued?

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@battleforeurope The difference here seems to boil down to interests vs values. Corporations are devoid of values and Nation-states often sacrifice interests to maintain values.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@DanielleRose84 Based on the most recent GNI/cap data, to reach upper middle income by 2030 Cambodia needs either a 12% CAGR until then or a fundamental revaluation of GDP and GNI that includes the informal economy. The Middle income trap is already apparent in footwear and garment.

[Pat Beck II @PatBeckII]

@postdiscipline @delong @cafreiman The smile curve in global value chains demonstrates that the LTV starts to erode the further a product moves away from the commodity. So, limiting to commodities does allow the theory to retain validity.