Patrick Ceresna📈📉

Founder of Big Picture Trading, co-host of the MacroVoices and Market Huddle podcasts and options instructor for the TMX Montreal Exchange

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

@CynicistChud @TheMarketHuddle @kevinmuir goochered 100%

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

The dollar trade is hiding in the crosses.
Euro gross shorts jumped by 41,000. Aussie positioning fell to zero. Yet DXY positioning barely changed.
Dollar bulls are shorting currencies—not buying DXY.

read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/phfOFhfEo4

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Oil rallied again—and the longs still didn’t show up.
WTI gross longs fell by 24,600, while Brent’s improvement came mainly from short covering.
The price trend is bullish. Futures sponsorship isn’t.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/PMJY3EljMA

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

@tanney9 @TheMarketHuddle @kevinmuir Having drinks with her now and she smiled at your tweet ))

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Copper’s one-year positioning score collapsed from 87 to 58 as large specs dumped 14,500 longs.
Yet copper gained roughly 2% and held near record highs.
Healthy reset—or warning shot?

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/BSs9UrbCrR

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Large specs added 45,000 sugar longs in one week, pushing both large and small specs to a 100 positioning score—even as price fell.
Everyone just bought the dip.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/90WUgQgBfW

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Nasdaq positioning score: 100.
Russell positioning score: 0.
The S&P and Russell remain net short while Nasdaq reaches record highs.
This isn’t broad equity conviction. It’s concentrated conviction.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/FRpbludyWS

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Natural gas large specs are now 236,000 contracts net short, with 509,000 gross shorts.
Positioning sits at zero across every COTSignal horizon.
The fuel for a squeeze is there.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/lLoiybN5Uu

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Treasury large specs just made a violent curve rotation:
30-year positioning improved by 67,000 contracts—while five-year positioning deteriorated by 168,000.
This is a major curve bet, not a blanket bond call.

read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/3NCEN8djNh

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

The Biggest Red Flag in the AI Boom Just Appeared https://t.co/QBSSyl9RzU

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

CPI Comes In Hot.. What Happens Next? https://t.co/MLxZ6CRGjo

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

What’s Stopping Oil Going to $200? https://t.co/yPEthTVw9S

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Large specs pushed soybean-meal positioning to the 100th percentile—just as small specs headed for the exits.
Same market. Completely opposite conviction.

read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/QBcWmFb0x0

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

The Nasdaq is the only major U.S. equity index large specs truly want.
Positioning sits at the 93rd percentile as the index reaches record highs—while the S&P 500 and Russell remain net short.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/UsnFwmpYbe

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

@profitsplusid That only depends on what information you are looking to attain from the data. Of course commericals will almost always be short, but what is valuable is knowing when they are most motivated to add to the hedges or when they are willing to have more exposure.

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

The precious-metals washout is broadening.
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium positioning all weakened silver and palladium are now near one-year extremes.

See the chart for yourself: https://t.co/gxfjAnweOh

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Natural gas hit a five-year positioning low—not because shorts surged, but because more than 30,000 longs walked away.
The bulls are capitulating.

Read the chart for yourself: https://t.co/lLoiybN5Uu

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Natural gas positioning just hit 0 on the 3-year score.
Copper is at 94.
WTI is at 25.
Three major markets. Three completely different positioning extremes.
The interesting part? One of these crowds may be very early and another may be dangerously late.

read it for yourself: https://t.co/pqkp2vClhJ

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

The Most Surprising Thing About This S&P 500 Rally https://t.co/8UejKTX5pZ

[Patrick Ceresna📈📉 @PatrickCeresna]

Why This Oil Breakdown May Not Be What It Looks Like https://t.co/FqC7OihuRd