Patrick Ruffini

Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨

@StateNavigate knocked it out of the park this year. We only missed two state legislative chambers this year and got 93-94% of all contested state legislative seat winners right.

We improved upon 2024, too.

https://t.co/r566hvSp7X

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

@CarrollDoherty I used likely voters

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

From the NORC CH&EP poll in Michigan

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Much of this shift came from differential turnout. Young Republicans just... didn't really vote.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

You can feel the vibe shift, before last week airline employees were touting Starlink on flights, this week announcements for anyone who *identifies* with a disability

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

@LawAmericanX This is how I know I’m on the right track!

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

The K-Shaped Republican Party

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

And in fact, has Hispanics cared more about immigration, Republicans would have won more of them.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

The fantasy that Hispanic voters are primarily motivated by immigration rather than economic issues is convenient for other members of the coalition, but it’s clearly untrue.

https://t.co/2Q7eNqzO43

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

The worst turnout environments in the country for Republicans, measured by gap between theoretical 100% Trump vs. Harris counties in turnout vs. '24.

MS -34%
ME -30%
IA -30%
NC -28%
TX -28%
SC -26%
KS -24%
GA -22%
MN -22%
OH -22%
NH -16%
FL -6%
NE +4%

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

If all had broken their way, 5 states would have been decided by less than a point for Republicans.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

If polls had been right on the nose and the generic had ended up at D+8.4, the Senate would have been kind of a bust for Dems, 50-50 or 51-49.

Shifting every state right by 5, Rs win AK, IA, OH (by 0.1), MS, SC. KS is a tie.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

Obviously, that's a wild counterfactual, but it did show why people were saying you could have a D+8 wave in the popular vote and a seat gain bust.

It also would have meant the Midwest holding for Rs while Ds still beat their polls in the Sun Belt.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

Texas compares unfavorably to Florida for Republican turnout but it wasn’t as bad as GA/NC or the Midwest because turnout was sky high.

That means more of the 26 point Paxton underperformance was persuasion and voters were punishing the rest of the GOP ticket for Paxton.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

@DanRosenheck The funny thing is if we shifted everything back to a D+8 generic it’s a regional split screen—polls too D in the Midwest and too R in the Sun Belt

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

@daveweigel Even realer ones will remember Bill Owens vs. Doug Hoffman vs. Dede Scozzafava

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

Apropos of nothing, I asked AI to draft a presidential campaign plan if price was no object.

It suggested $10 billion on field, $3 billion on TV.

[Evan Barker @evanwch]

In this interview I hear Trump talk a lot about how good the stock market is, how good people’s 401ks are doing. The problem is a lot of working class white and Latino people who voted for Trump in 2024 and flipped this election don’t have 401ks. A lot of young people don’t have them. Boomers do. It reads to me like someone who is still not fully understanding the realignment of working class people from the democrats to the republicans over the last ten years, and how things like gas prices, inflation, healthcare, and housing hit them them harder than it does financially secure boomers

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

You just got pasted in an election decided mostly on turnout.

Time to plumb the depths of the 2010s organizer lore.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

@lennybronner About how many of these new voters who were voters who skipped ‘24 vs being completely new to the electorate?