Patrick Shaw Stewart

1) Chilling/colds (2) WhyC19 became mild (3)Sex/mutations (4) Pandemics

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

My allegorical fable⬇️seems to be confusing some people

There are actually three main points

1. sex is a great way to spread innovation to lineages that never evolved them

That's understood. But what many evolutionary biologists don't get is:

2. Mutation speeds up when a population is under strong selective pressure

3. Sexual selection - focusing on particular traits such as peacocks' tails, birdsong in songbirds, migration, or (in humans) beautiful faces, athleticism and cleverness - can restore accurate replication

Those traits need to be complex - ie the product of many genes - and everyone needs to agree on what is important, so that recent mutations can be picked up
_____________________

At the end of the last ice age, sea levels rose by 120 meters.

As the water rose, about 1,000 humans were marooned on the Fantasian Islands, about 40 miles off the coast of West Africa (at least, I feel that’s where they ought to be). Within decades, people had wiped out all the large mammals on the islands, and they lived on gourds, fruit, and the eggs of blue-footed boobies. However, there was a kind of bean on the islands that could be eaten in small quantities – in larger quantities, it was toxic. There was one family on the island that was particularly stupid and ugly, avoided by the other islanders. This was because both parents had high mutation rates – they had DNA polymerases that couldn’t replicate DNA quite as accurately as others could - their polymerases made slightly more mistakes. Instead of about 100 new mutations per child (mutations the parents didn’t have, that is), their children had about 800. By the third generation, there were a lot of illnesses in the family, but there was one boy who could eat the beans without any ill effects (scientists now believe he had three new mutations that allowed him to tolerate both tannins and lectins). All his siblings died at young ages, but he and his children were strong - although stupid - and his sons mated with the most beautiful girls on the island. These girls had DNA polymerases with very low error rates, so fidelity was restored. After 300 years, everyone on the island was descended from this particular individual, and they were all perfectly healthy and intelligent, with beans forming 60% of their diet.

By the way, it was crucial that the young men sought out the most beautiful girls - as we still do today.

That’s because they were subconsciously looking for accurate polymerases. The story is allegorical, but I think this kind of thing happens all the time with animals, plants, fungi, and microbes – whenever a species is subjected to strong natural selection. For example, when they invade new terrain, an ice age begins, or they infect a new host. That’s why sexual reproduction is so universal – scientists don’t have a good explanation right now for why it’s so popular (check out the Wikipedia article).

I think sexual reproduction a general adaptation to unstable environments and a mechanism to restore replicative fidelity – which is often lost.

Prokaryotes have similar mechanisms, but sex is the most complex and effective

Preprint: https://t.co/tKg3b3xWru (I've since changed the name back to The Everest Hypothesis btw)

[Matt Ridley @mattwridley]

Great new site for calculating cost-benefit net zero policies.

UK policies are terrifyingly bad value for money: for every pound of cost we get approx 11p of benefit.

Cop 31 please note.

https://t.co/HYljiqh5CO

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@danielaaass You think it's OK for a large country to invade and take over a small neighbor?

[Daniel Hannan @DanielJHannan]

We are not even pretending to protect property any more.

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

Read what I said ⬇️

It's dishonest for scientists to point to coral bleaching as evidence of global warming

It is caused by temperature FLUCTUATIONS which have always occurred, and were far greater during the ice ages
_________

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great Barrier Reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@andrw100 @Blueback1 @afneil Bleaching is caused by an evolutionary process that makes corals sensitive to temperature rises in the short-term, see below

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is very ignorant

> Global temperature rises, tick

Starting from a point where temperatures were at a record low in the last 10,000 years

> Ice and glacier loss, tick

Glaciers were much more extensive 7,000 years ago. We know this because when they retreat, piles of logs and tree stumps are revealed. This is seen all over the world.

> Extreme weather occurrences, tick

There is no evidence that extreme weather events have increased, but humans have a strange amnesia about these events, with poor record keeping until recently

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great barrier reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

This propaganda is irresponsible and ignorant.

> Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

Agreed

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@Floatymcfloater @Blueback1 @afneil See below

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is very ignorant

> Global temperature rises, tick

Starting from a point where temperatures were at a record low in the last 10,000 years

> Ice and glacier loss, tick

Glaciers were much more extensive 7,000 years ago. We know this because when they retreat, piles of logs and tree stumps are revealed. This is seen all over the world.

> Extreme weather occurrences, tick

There is no evidence that extreme weather events have increased, but humans have a strange amnesia about these events, with poor record keeping until recently

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great barrier reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

This propaganda is irresponsible and ignorant.

> Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

Agreed

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@Blueback1 @afneil ⬇️

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is very ignorant

> Global temperature rises, tick

Starting from a point where temperatures were at a record low in the last 10,000 years

> Ice and glacier loss, tick

Glaciers were much more extensive 7,000 years ago. We know this because when they retreat, piles of logs and tree stumps are revealed. This is seen all over the world.

> Extreme weather occurrences, tick

There is no evidence that extreme weather events have increased, but humans have a strange amnesia about these events, with poor record keeping until recently

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great barrier reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

This propaganda is irresponsible and ignorant.

> Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

Agreed

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@bell00david @Blueback1 @afneil I agree

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is very ignorant

> Global temperature rises, tick

Starting from a point where temperatures were at a record low in the last 10,000 years

> Ice and glacier loss, tick

Glaciers were much more extensive 7,000 years ago. We know this because when they retreat, piles of logs and tree stumps are revealed. This is seen all over the world.

> Extreme weather occurrences, tick

There is no evidence that extreme weather events have increased, but humans have a strange amnesia about these events, with poor record keeping until recently

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great barrier reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

This propaganda is irresponsible and ignorant.

> Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

Agreed

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is very ignorant

> Global temperature rises, tick

Starting from a point where temperatures were at a record low in the last 10,000 years

> Ice and glacier loss, tick

Glaciers were much more extensive 7,000 years ago. We know this because when they retreat, piles of logs and tree stumps are revealed. This is seen all over the world.

> Extreme weather occurrences, tick

There is no evidence that extreme weather events have increased, but humans have a strange amnesia about these events, with poor record keeping until recently

> Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

This is the most infuriating claim. You get coral bleaching in the south of, for example, the Great barrier reef, when obviously it's far warmer in the north of the reef, where coral can still thrive. What's going on? Well, what happens is that coral lineages can outcompete other lineages by making use of more aggressive algae that photosynthesize faster. This allows them to grow faster, but if the temperature rises a little, the algae produce toxic free radicals and oxidants, which can kill the corals. This does NOT show that temperatures have generally risen. It's a result of temperature fluctuations, which have been going on for millions of years - and were far greater during the ice ages.

This propaganda is irresponsible and ignorant.

> Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

Agreed

[David Barrett @Blueback1]

@afneil Global temperature rises, tick
Ice and glacier loss, tick
Extreme weather occurrences, tick
Entire death of coral beds due to bleaching, tick

Rising sea levels, no tick, called too early.

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

I see what he means

(It's actually on the extreme right of the share option)

[Matt Ridley @mattwridley]

As there's still no upward trend in global droughts, floods, tornados, storms, cyclones...

It looks like we can have global warming without climate change.

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

This is why the US is successful - when one state does something stupid, another provides an alternative

[Handre @Handre]

There exists a better way to govern, but your local despot isn't willing to give up his turn at the trough to make it happen.

Decentralization is an institutional technology for producing better governance, and history proves it.

Switzerland offers the clearest running experiment. The Swiss canton system, which predates the 1848 federal constitution by centuries, gave each canton genuine fiscal and legal autonomy. Cantons compete. Appenzell Innerrhoden ran its affairs differently from Zurich, and both had to live with the consequences of their own choices. Tax policy, spending, local regulation: all accountable to populations small enough to hold officials personally responsible. When a canton governor failed, residents noticed immediately. Exit was real and cheap. Cross the border, pay lower taxes, keep your capital. That threat disciplines governments in a way that no constitutional clause ever manages.

Pre-unification Germany made the same point, often uncomfortably for German nationalists. The patchwork of hundreds of principalities, free cities, and minor kingdoms that made up the Holy Roman Empire and later the German Confederation produced fierce jurisdictional competition. Hamburg grew wealthy as a free city because it kept commercial law light and bureaucratic interference minimal. Frankfurt became the financial center of continental Europe for the same reason. Bismarck's 1871 unification consolidated power upward and, within a generation, Berlin was micromanaging what Hamburg had run perfectly well on its own.

Smaller jurisdictions cannot hide fiscal failure behind monetary expansion or transfers from distant taxpayers. A canton that overspends runs visibly short. A German principality that harassed merchants watched them relocate. The feedback loop is tight and fast. Large centralized states break that loop. Washington, Brussels, and Berlin all collect taxes from populations too dispersed and too diverse to coordinate effective pushback. The spending continues, and the bureaucracy expands, insulated from consequence.

You end up paying the price of centralization every time a uniform federal regulation destroys a local arrangement that worked. The canton system worked because Appenzell could not impose its preferences on Zurich.

Brussels hasn't learned that lesson yet, and Europeans are paying the tuition.

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

I've just flown on your nightmare airline

You obviously want to get rid of your customers as quickly as possible

You've just charged me over 700 Swedish krona to bring a small backpack on board that easily fits under the seat in front of me

Your assistants showed me tiny box that they insisted my bag should fit into

Why?

Is it your objective to make life as difficult as possible for your customers?

What possible harm can it do for me to bring a backpack on board with the things I need that fits under the seat in front of me? I had a laptop, a book, a few cables and an emergency fold-up raincoat.

Your check-in staff didn't warn me, or I would have put various things into my checked-in bag which I'd already paid for

The box you showed me was about 4 inches deep

What's the idea? Why would you do this?

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@BrusselAirlines is a nightmare

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

I've just flown on your nightmare airline

You obviously want to get rid of your customers

You've just charged me over 700 Swedish krona to bring a small backpack on board that easily fits under the seat in front of me

Your assistants showed me tiny box that they insisted my bag should fit into

Why?

Is it your objective to make life as difficult as possible for your customers?

What possible harm can it do for me to bring a backpack on board with the things I need that fits under the seat in front of me? I had a laptop, a book, a few cables and an emergency fold-up raincoat.

Your check-in staff didn't warn me, or I would have put various things into my checked-in bag which I'd already paid for

The box you showed me was about 4 inches deep

What's the idea? Why would you do this?

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

I've just flown on your nightmare airline

You obviously want to get rid of your customers

You've just charged me over 700 Swedish krona to bring a small backpack on board that easily fits under the seat in front of me

Your assistants showed me tiny box that they insisted my bag should fit into

Why?

Is it your objective to make life as difficult as possible for your customers?

What possible harm can it do for me to bring a backpack on board with the things I need that fits under the seat in front of me? I had a laptop, a book, a few cables and an emergency fold-up raincoat.

Your check-in staff didn't warn me, or I would have put various things into my checked-in bag which I'd already paid for

The box you showed me was about 4 inches deep

What's the idea? Why would you do this?

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

Thoughts?

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

Well I would say that male homosexuality is still a mystery. My hypothesis is that gay men in the evolutionary past still had children because there was a strong prejudice against homosexuality, but they had an advantage because they were less inclined to fight and compete with other males over the most beautiful females

I have in mind lethal conflicts

Our seemingly never-ending quest for beauty, especially female, is in my opinion about conserving accurate DNA replication

A beautiful woman may not have particularly good genes, but she probably has accurate polymerases, which can recombine with the billionaire's excellent genotype and so conserve it

I'm working on a paper on this hypothesis right now re flowers, peacocks, salmon, Monarch butterflies, etc

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

Well I would say that male homosexuality is still a mystery. My hypothesis is that gay men in the evolutionary past still had children because there was a strong prejudice against homosexuality, but they had an advantage because they were less inclined to fight and compete with other males over the most beautiful females

I have in mind lethal conflicts

Our seemingly never-ending quest for beauty, especially female, is in my opinion about conserving accurate DNA replication

A beautiful woman may not have particularly good genes, but she probably has accurate polymerases, which can recombine with the billionaire's excellent genotype and so conserve it

I'm working on a paper on this hypothesis right now re flowers, peacocks, salmon, Monarch butterflies, etc

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

The commitment is not just to the tribe. It's to the narrative

It's a very unhelpful fashion

[Matt Ridley @mattwridley]

“People whose commitment to truth is subordinate to their commitment to tribe. And I believe this duality explains a great deal about the state of the western world.”

Excellent column from @matthewsyed

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@angoffinet @mattwridley I don't think it is reciprocal. At least, @grok says it isn't

I travel to the EU dozens of times every year and I've never heard of this rule

Maybe some kind airline person would have told me if I had that kind of passport

[Patrick Shaw Stewart @PatrickSSte]

@sylmontalban @JeremyWesthead @mattwridley Clearly, the EU is a nightmare