PayoffBetsMLB

Home run picks from a full-game simulation engine. Statcast, park & weather, 3 seasons of history. Every pick graded publicly the next morning.

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

We taught a computer to play baseball. ⚾

It plays every MLB game thousands of times before first pitch — real Statcast contact quality, pitch-by-pitch matchups, park factors, live weather.

Then it tells us who’s going deep.

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

Full sheet, every reason, every receipt:

https://t.co/WFuf02j8im

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

⚾ HR Report — Tue, Sep 1

15 games, 10,000 sims apiece.

The bats the model keeps landing on 🧵

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

🎯 = team's best bat · 🌙 = the longshot · 🔄 = the pivot
Prices = our break-even. Beat them at the book and you have value.

Full breakdowns free, link below 👇
Graded publicly at 7:20 tomorrow. Receipts or it didn’t happen.

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

Receipts — Aug 31 ⚾

🎯 7/25 best bats homered
🌙 0/8 longshots

✅ Rafael Devers
✅ Michael Harris II
✅ Jarren Duran
✅ Cal Raleigh
✅ Daylen Lile
✅ Seiya Suzuki
✅ Kody Clemens
✅ Nelson Velázquez

Every pick, graded: https://t.co/WFuf02j8im

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

⚾ HR Report — Mon, Aug 31

12 games, 10,000 sims apiece.

The bats the model keeps landing on 🧵

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

Also last night

🏃 Chandler Simpson 1 · Cody Freeman 1 · Jake McCarthy 1
🧮 Alex Bregman 4 RBI · Daylen Lile 4 RBI · Randy Arozarena 4 RBI
🔥 Ian Seymour 10 K · Taj Bradley 9 K · Clay Holmes 8 K

Full board, every night: https://t.co/WFuf02j8im

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

⚾ Monday, Aug 31 — the night in numbers

💣 31 home runs
🏃 6 stolen bases
🏟️ 111 runs across 12 games

📏 Longest: Bryson Stott (PHI) 464 ft
💨 Hardest: Colson Montgomery (CWS) 115.4 mph

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

💣 Longest balls of the night

464 ft — Bryson Stott (PHI)
439 ft — Hao-Yu Lee (DET)
420 ft — Ryan Jeffers (MIN)
419 ft — Tyrone Taylor (CHC)
418 ft — Mark Vientos (NYM)
417 ft — Justin Foscue (TEX)
416 ft — Matt Shaw (CHC)
415 ft — Nelson Velázquez (HOU)

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

👀

[MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline]

The @Mariners are calling up No. 5 prospect Lazaro Montes, who has jaw-dropping power and ranks 2nd in the Minors with 38 homers.

Here's what to expect from the 6-foot-5 slugger in the big leagues: https://t.co/w3TBfYOrup

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

👀

[Talkin' Baseball @TalkinBaseball_]

Padres are calling up 20-year-old catcher Ethan Salas, per @sdutKevinAcee

Salas is San Diego's #1 prospect and MLB's #23 overall prospect

[PayoffBetsMLB @PayoffBetsMLB]

Sheet check-in ⚾

Rafael Devers ✅
Michael Harris II ✅
Mickey Gasper ✅
Jarren Duran 🌙✅
Randy Arozarena 🔄✅
Tyrone Taylor 🔄✅

6/28 sheet picks homered
best 3/15 · 🌙 longshots 1/6 · 🔄 pivots 2/7
…and 9 games still going.

Posted this morning, graded publicly at 7:20:…