PermCap Investment Office

The Full-Service Investment Office for Families, Endowments & Foundations.

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

One question keeps coming up in client portfolio reviews: “Are you going to sell gold?” The rally shows no sign of slowing, with prices nearing $5,000 an ounce amid a “debasement trade.” Gold should continue to see support as central banks remain major buyers, fiscal laxity persists and a weakening dollar continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets.

https://t.co/rPFw0ZusRy

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

U.S. stocks are seeing a late-December rebound as optimism over economic strength, corporate profits, and the potential for interest-rate cuts fuels a possible Santa Claus rally. With bonds, stock markets and metals all hovering near all-time highs, some market participants are pointing to heavy equity inflows, a mountain of retail cash on the sidelines and some friendly late-December seasonality trends to keep this rally alive.

https://t.co/ILWd0xSq4S

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Tufts alum and PermCap CIO John Regan came across a fascinating article last week from his alma mater's magazine and wrote to our clients and friends of the firm:

"This week's interesting article profiles the extensive career of another Tufts alum, Vannevar Bush. After a fifteen-minute meeting in 1940, Bush was hired on the spot by FDR at the outset of World War II to coordinate all science research for the government during wartime. He became the champion of the science-government-academia tripartite known as the U.S. Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD). OSRD would oversee all scientific research aligned with U.S. war efforts, including projects like the development of radar, the early administration of the Manhattan Project and mass production of penicillin.

Most importantly, Bush convinced FDR to funnel funding to universities, rather than employ government scientists. This structure flourished, carried the U.S. through the Cold War, and remains in place today. As we see increased involvement of government with science and technology, this piece is a reminder that this has been underway for nearly ninety years."

https://t.co/1hC2QvQD7p

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

In last week’s featured read, Jeff Currie of Carlyle draws a provocative parallel between today’s AI capex boom and the shale investment cycle of the 2010s, arguing that “asset-light” Big Tech is increasingly behaving like an “asset-heavy” commodity producer, now selling AI compute in dollars per hour much like barrels of oil. Previous capex surges in energy ended in price wars and multiple compression, and this spending binge may very well end up looking more like a commodity cycle, not just a growth story.

https://t.co/vVAhch0x1T

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

The impact of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s major oil producers is rippling through global energy markets, lowering Russian oil prices and disrupting supply chains. International buyers like China and India are seeking alternative sources as stricter enforcement has increased the risk of trading Russian crude. Russia is beginning to feel the pressure as oil revenues have declined, adding pressure to its economy and defense funding.

https://t.co/moxxKvira3

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

PermCap CIO John Regan wrote to clients and friends of the firm last week:

"Private markets are now more readily available to retail investors than ever before. This appears to be a tide that cannot be held back. Schwab made certain direct private investments available through its newly acquired Forge Global, a marketplace for private shares of companies. Private direct investments will find their way down to accounts with $1mm in investable assets. What could go wrong?

Is this a sign of the apocalypse or is this good for America? The number of publicly traded companies has significantly declined over the last ten years. There are less companies to invest in and concentration in the top 7-10 companies in the S&P 500 is at a dangerous high. So why not diversify into unpriced securities? Pre-IPO shares do not guarantee an IPO or a positive IPO price. Public securities do not guarantee gains either, and public financial disclosures often go unread, as will most private disclosures. We view this development as a natural evolution of the capital markets, though it may put some less sophisticated investors at risk."

https://t.co/C3C1fdadRx

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

The WSJ highlights that while President Javier Milei’s coalition performed strongly, Argentina’s currency challenges persist: inflation has fallen sharply from 200%+ to ~30% and the fiscal balance has improved, yet capital controls remain, dollar reserves are thin, and further peso adjustment is possible.

For the first time in our firm's history, we are actively researching dedicated opportunities in Latin America given what we believe to be newfound interest by the U.S. Government in response to China's growing influence in the Eastern Hemisphere. The coupling of LatAm's policy progress and reforms and the emergence of AI increasing productivity abroad, has made the investment set up interesting.

https://t.co/ilaKjHhX4Y

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

We are now frequently asked if bitcoin is the new digital gold. Last week's featured article caught our eye with some interesting comparisons regarding ownership, price correlations, and respective place in the financial system.

https://t.co/4JN2ptCuGp

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

As AI growth accelerates, tech giants from OpenAI to xAI are fueling a new “bring your own power” era by building on-site natural gas generation to meet the soaring electricity demands that U.S. infrastructure can’t yet deliver. With the hyperscalers trading at nosebleed multiples, we are actively looking for derivative ways to take advantage of the proliferation of AI through power, infrastructure and supply chain.

https://t.co/S3qgdIk5pc

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled early last week that the Fed may be nearing the end of its balance sheet reduction, noting recent signs of tighter liquidity and declining use of its reverse repo program. Powell emphasized that maintaining control over short-term interest rates and overall financial stability will guide decisions on when to pause the process.

https://t.co/nX0F8EsZPo

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

We know we’ve probably talked about gold enough this year but given the latest Wall Street Journal piece on the so-called “debasement trade,” it’s hard not to revisit it. As Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, recently remarked, it’s “slightly concerning” when gold begins to assume the role the dollar once held as the world’s safe harbor.

While we’re pleased to see portfolios benefiting from this move, our skeptical caps remind us that the rally reflects deeper structural imbalances, chief among them runaway deficit spending, persistent debt expansion, accelerating central-bank purchases, and now a new accelerant out of Japan’s decision to run the economy “hot.” In short, this isn’t just a gold story; it’s a monetary one.

https://t.co/T8TIb0F20W

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

The AI race may be flirting with “jump-the-shark” territory. If that Happy Days reference lands, you likely remember the first tech wreck (2001–2003): the internet didn’t fail, the capex cycle did.

Today’s massive AI build-out is reminiscent of the 1990s dark-fiber boom. The dream was built, but ownership changed hands along the way. The dollar amounts are far larger this time, and inevitably, there will be winners and losers.

https://t.co/5YTpRjwgT4

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Last week, PermCap CIO John Regan wrote to our clients and friends of the firm:

"We remain at record market highs, with record deals, and as we picked our Friday note, this story threatens another record. The potential buyout of Electronic Arts would be the biggest leveraged buyout of all time.

In 1989, RJR Nabisco was acquired in a bruising competitive auction that led to a $25 billion price tag and a mountain of debt. It’s interesting to note that the target is no longer a cookie company, but rather a money-printing video game maker. Thirty-five years later, a new industry with massively profitable cash flows are the most prized targets."

https://t.co/1yvgtyT1ln

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Last week’s featured article (linked below) explores how the Genius Act’s new stablecoin framework draws parallels to the 1980s, when money‑market funds reshaped the banking landscape. It emphasizes the need for careful oversight to ensure stablecoins contribute to innovation in a way that complements, rather than disrupts, the broader financial system.

https://t.co/gxtOVjGtxe

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Last week's article hit a personal nerve with CIO John Regan as it summarized his 2009 "trial by fire" introduction to Ivy League endowment allocations. Seventeen years post the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the endowment thought leaders are once again experiencing a miscalculation with regard to overall liquidity.

We frequently participate in private investments. We love experienced private equity managers who can access and structure deals not available in the public markets. However, we wince when investors ignore overall liquidity needs beyond the obvious unfunded LP commitments. Liquidity scenario planning for a rainy day should be at the core of asset allocation, not NACUBO league table allocation. Keeping up with Jones’ can lead you off the cliff.

https://t.co/ekAhssVJal

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Tariffs are typically associated with trade tensions and higher consumer prices, but S&P Global highlights a less obvious angle: their potential role in reducing the U.S. debt burden.

The article linked below discusses the impact of tariff-generated revenue on the U.S. deficit and the world’s biggest economy’s credit rating.

https://t.co/D6ft4a2LYj

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Last week’s interesting article regarding Intel and the U.S. government’s desire to invest in and create a national chip champion is a new twist on capitalism. In fact, you could say that Trump is taking a page from China. Realistically, there is already the heavy, but unseen, hand of government in industry. However, this will firmly put the U.S. in the business of picking winners.

To read the full piece, click here: https://t.co/wdvFnmWNhx

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

On Friday, news broke regarding a subject we have discussed at length, gold.

Markets were blindsided by tariffs on the importation of 100oz and one-kilo gold bars, leading to gold futures soaring to all-time highs.

While the White House has pledged to release an executive order clearing up confusion, this episode was another reminder that the tariff headlines aren’t slowing down anytime soon.

Click here to read the full article: https://t.co/pvllBSWOiA

[PermCap Investment Office @PermCapital]

Tonight, PermCap Founding Partner & CIO @jjrpermcap will join @BillAckman, CEO of @PershingSquare, at the Tommy & Victoria Baker School of Business (@Citadel1842) for the Finance Speaker Series.

The discussion will span Bill’s career, market insights, and his advice for the next generation of leaders.

Attached are the slides for tonight's event (https://t.co/CSfJPwr1KH)