Pero Connor

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@aj_geo_analysis I’m not sure I understand this post. Is this a potential weakening of the Russia/Iran alliance? Or is this Putin using his relationship with Iran to get more out of Ukraine from the US? I sense the latter.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@aj_geo_analysis Do you think that the Israeli Prime Minister elections can play a part in this calculation? Looking at the two front-runners it doesn’t look like there’s much difference from the Israeli’s security state perspective - so it would probably be no. Is there something there?

[AJ Signal @aj_geo_analysis]

A PREDICITON:

TRUMP will LIKLEY pursue a mechanism to "BREAK IRAN" without a Ground Invasion, and before resorting to dropping a nuclear bomb...

...but if this mechanism is not used by the Trump Administration, then BOTH a Ground Invasion and nuclear options will likely remain on the table...

Before a single American boot goes in, there is a lever that costs nothing in American blood and does what no airstrike and no sanctions list has managed to do, and I believe American under @POTUS will LIKLEY ACTIVATE THE below Plan within the NEXT 12 months or so as tensions and war escalate...

On a map Iran looks like "one" country, but underneath it is a Persian core governing several large non-Persian nations, each with its own language, its own land, and its own memory of self-rule.

1. The Kurds in the South and West regions.
2. The Ahwazi Arabs in Khuzestan, directly over Iran's oil.
3. The Baluchis in the southeast close to Pakistan.
3. The Azeris in the northwest next to the country of Azerbaijan.

By the standard count the non-Persian share is close to 50% of the total population of Iran's 92 million population, meaning approximately 46 million people in Iran are NOT Persians but other Nations and ethnicities.

Then the lever itself and how it will likely work.

A single resolution from the US Congress or by Executive Order recognising the "sovereign independence" of Iranian Kurdistan, Ahwaz, Baluchistan and Southern Azerbaijan.

No bombing run, no new sanctions package, a piece of paper carrying the full weight of the United States will undermine the entire structure of the Iranian territory... It will be likely that countries like the 5 EYES, UK, France, Germany, and many others may follow suit.

That paper would change the internal maths for EVERY ministry official, every IRGC provincial commander, every Basij unit, and every ordinary Iranian quietly working out whether the government survives the coming years. This is a MAXIMUM pressure at zero kinetic cost.

And it would not be without precedent.

The Kurds of Iran declared their own republic of Kurdistan in the Mahabad region in 1946. It stood for one year, until the Soviets pulled their backing and it fell.

The Ahwazi liberation movement has run for decades. The Baluchi insurgency in Sistan and Baluchistan has never stopped.

The organisations already exists on the ground. Recognition would give it legal standing and a name and would create momentum that America has slowly been building from the Coalition of Unwilling to the Coalition of the Forced, but this will likely bring together another coalition of the willing which is native ground forces against the Iranian Insitutions that America has been trying to undermine and destroy. America is likely exploring this option...

Turkey will object. Iraq will object but the rest of the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia will likely endorse this because it will break the Persian dominated Iran in half, making the further Persian Iran more manageable from the eyes of the Gulf countries...

Recognition forces a choice on Tehran that no bombing campaign has forced.

Halt the nuclear program, fold up the proxy network and the forward defences, stand down in the Strait of Hormuz.

Or risk the country coming apart into smaller states that look toward the Gulf and the West instead of toward Tehran.

This is the part that matters. "Regime change" still assumes "one Iran" on the map with new management at the helm.

Recognition takes the map itself off the table. It tells Tehran the fight has moved past who rules the country to whether it stays one country at all.

This a plan that each of the departments Trump control under @PeteHegseth, @SecRubio are likely already considering...

𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@Bobbythirdway Why would the garbage truck driver want her?

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@aj_geo_analysis It’s tempting, but I wouldn’t trust them to honor their side of the bargain after the war.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@aj_geo_analysis America is putting its people first. It’s people are not Americans though.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@Aviation_Intel I bet you that it was an ethnic Chinese (American citizen). The best security is to have no members of any race (regardless of citizenship) to work in the defense industry that you could be at war with. But that would be racist. 🫤

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@itsadelefr @tragicbirdapp It’s not a plot. Women don’t think about it. They simply feel that way.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@Hadriancro Who is Serbia carpet bombing? Chill dude.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@RealFletch17 You’re looking for a Kamaz. Too bad we don’t get Russian stuff.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@lostodds @beinlibertarian This truck class was around $17k when I was a teenager. $40k for a ranger with no bed is wild.

[Pero Connor @PeroConnorirex]

@EguigurenJose @politicsNpoker The English fans also boo anthems. They did it for their opener against Croatia. The English match the Mexicans in their classlessness.