Perry Sopinsky

Data Scientist @PrizePicks | Writer @VUHoops

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone.

At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense.

Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Same check, one year ago. 11 teams were in the zone 16 days into last season.

7 stayed, including the eventual champion Knicks. 4 fell out: the Bulls, Heat, Sixers and Blazers. 2 broke in late: the Hornets and Cavs.

November's list will change!

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone.

At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense.

Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@sampierat Agree, gotta take into account those kinds of things when using this data. It is the strongest indicator but obviously throw everything out the window for a team like the Sixers or lakers

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Who will actually finish in the Title Zone?

Two numbers do most of the work: how good you are now, and how good you were last season. Hot shooting, efficiency, SOS doesn’t matter.

The Thunder are outside it at +0.4 and still have a 74% chance. The Grizzlies are +10.5 and only have a 19% chance

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone.

At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense.

Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@RatioNChill Yea their shooting just isn’t great

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@durenattorney good call ^

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Here are the probabilities of each team reaching the title zone by the end of the season:

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@gp5346 Two real comps since 2001, and they went opposite ways.

The 2005 Suns never fell off: 62-20. They had just added Steve Nash.

The 2018 Magic collapsed to 25-57 with mostly the same roster.

Memphis remade its roster but has played the softest schedule in the league.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

2014 to 2026. Across all 26 runs, champions went 226-85 in games against other zone teams.

Only three never had to face one: the 2020 Lakers, 2023 Nuggets and 2024 Celtics.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

To win a title since 2001, you've had to go through other title zone teams.

More than half the series every champion won came against a team that was also in the zone. 21 of the 26 Finals were zone vs zone.

Where each champ sat, and its seed:

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

2001 to 2013. Gold = the team they beat was also in the zone.

The Lakers beat four zone teams in a single run three times: 2001, 2002 and 2010. The 2001 team lost one game doing it.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@austxsun Yes it slims down later in the year

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone.

At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense.

Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@IWannaKnowBall Very common especially this early in the season

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@peanut_buttr 04 pistons

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@austxsun Good idea, will get into that in my next tweet

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@automaticnba 🤝🤝🤝

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@JarealSpivey Yes will be updating it every month or so

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@stocks_rod Yes

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@Truthhammer 🤣🤣🤣

[Perry Sopinsky @PerryBrackets]

@tombombadeel Agree, will be updating it every month