@AurelianZiz@JideLambo That TAM itself doesn’t justify the Market Cap, the TAM is largely over indexed towards xAI, which is the biggest money sucker of SpaceX.
Realising Apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue in 1980.
SpaceX wants you to buy at $2 trillion and 100 times revenue in 2026.
That is not getting in early. That is being the exit for venture capitalists who have held this equity for years at a fraction of what you are being asked to pay.
Almost none of the retail investors buying this IPO will read the 300 pages before the book closes on June 11.
That is your entire competitive advantage right there.
At some point it has to hit y’all why is he giving 30 fucking % of the IPO raise to retail. It’s like all of Americans became the walking dead zombies.
SpaceX IPO is a mother of a Ponzi scheme. It’s clear that people analyst with clear conflict of interests are hyping it up, because they need retail investors to bite. I’ve heard so many live air analyst hype it up, and give bullshit excuse why they’re not putting money behind it.
Take your money, and go get you a boring stock that’ll emerge from this clusterfuck.
Are analysts and retail investors only now realizing that giant software incumbents with massive balance sheets were never going to sit on the sidelines and let AI-native startups take their lunch?
I've said this before: many investors have dramatically underestimated the ability of incumbents to defend their turf. Distribution, customer relationships, cash flow, and embedded workflows matter.
A lot of the capital chasing nascent, unproven AI tools is going to learn that lesson the hard way.
SpaceX may ultimately justify its valuation. I genuinely hope it does.
That said, paying what amounts to an extraordinary multiple for a company that remains unprofitable, based largely on ambitious long-term TAM assumptions and massive future market opportunities, is the kind of market optimism (borderline hysteria) that makes me uneasy.
My concern isn't that SpaceX is a bad company. It's that even great companies can become overvalued. When investors become willing to pay almost any price for a compelling narrative, valuation discipline erodes, and markets become increasingly vulnerable to disappointment.
If those assumptions prove wrong, the resulting correction rarely affects only those who bought in.
Does Barry Weis and CBS realize people watch the celebrity and reliable journalist over the unreliable network?
CBS is going to become worthless to Ellison real quickly, when all these newscasters go elsewhere and peel audience away.
Not saying Drake London don’t deserve to be 3rd highest paid receiver in the league. He’s extremely talented and absent injuries, he’s been pretty good 70%+ of the times.
The glaring point is in 4 years he has 0 pro bowls, 0 All pros, never led the league in major statistical categories (came 4th in Rec. Yards 2024), and highest top 100 finish was 97th.
We’ll see if it’s a bargain in a year or two.
BET President Louis Carr is bringing together six cultural and business heavyweights to help shape the next chapter of the 45-year-old media institution. https://t.co/S7OomEbQ2T
It feels like they're going all in for a Super Bowl this year, since they re-signed Matt Stafford for a year as well. It's the only way this move makes sense to me, personally. I am a big fan of both, and I think Jared has the potential to be a tier-1 defensive player in a year or two, and a potential defensive player of the year candidate.
Yes, Myles Garrett is all-world talented, and one of the 2/3 greatest defensive players of the past decade (incl. AD99 and Von Miller). But JV is 5 years younger and cheaper, a 2-time Pro Bowler, 2 years removed from DROY, and has improved every game and in both seasons since entering the league.
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Bombshell: The Browns are finalizing a trade that will send two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, per @rapsheet, @TomPelissero and me.
In exchange for Garrett, the Rams are expected to send Pro-Bowl edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick and other draft-pick compensation still being negotiated to the Browns.
The Minnesota Vikings are an example of how people and organizations can get overwhelmed by their own good fortune.
They struck gold with Sam Darnold. The easiest play that offseason would've been to keep Darnold and have JJ do what Jordan Love did, be an understudy. There were always questions about whether he could be the prime featured QB. He wasn't that at Michigan; he was a winner surrounded by elite talent in every position, not the main gunslinger.
Instead, Minnesota got too giddy and set itself back 3-5 years. Now they're back in the same place they were with Darnold and McCarthy, now with Murray and McCarthy. Makes you wonder at times the level of IQ in these front offices.
https://t.co/G23LpTX5A1