Peter Penha

Life student of markets..20s in Trsy MM/FX/MBS, 30s in Equities @ TBTF, 40s @ Independents . "The young man knows the rules, the old man knows the exceptions"

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

I am also long the Sugar futures curve - I think it is the diesel that is what will make the trade work and panic the shorts.

Algos & bots trade the gasoline / ethanol ratio (ethanol 70% energy density of gasoline) not programmed to wonder what happens in a diesel shortage.

Diesel cuts the sugar cane and trucks it to the crushing plants and trucks ethanol to the gas stations and sugar to export.

Diesel trucks all food around Brazil and in a shortage the sensible thing is to ration diesel for the domestic delivery use first - sugar can sit in warehouses and wait until this crisis is over. Add that it is financial speculators who are short sugar seeing years of surplus - Brazil can pay for importing and re-routing diesel on the back of HF losses on the sugar shorts - the farmers are who will benefit from higher prices.

Where fuel (and thus sugar) goes may not be set by financiers but by politicians in an election year w/ the population in agreement

Just my working hypothesis on how the front delivery contracts can go to backwardation in a Brazil of surplus came

#sugar #SBN26 #SBV26 $CANE

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@Cluster_6 Pure speculation but could allow Cerberus to backstop the rights offering when final details come out to ensure success & after retail is given additional subscription rights.

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

When Porsche (PAH3 GY) declared they wanted “domination” of Volkswagen (75%) - we had the closest thing we will ever see to the Great Northern corner - Oct 2008 with Bloomberg updating VW market cap every few minutes with a headline (VW passes Microsoft in market cap, VW passes ExxonMobil) as it traded up to be the most valuable company in the world & Porsche which had control of VW had their shares start to crash….we saw a v well known HF lose $400mm+ on the day and a long money PM hearing about the squeeze opened and closed a $40mm intraday gain in a morning trade..
#MOASS

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@bert_gilfoyle #respect for you being everywhere on everything all at once. Thank You

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

There will be a shareholders « as of » date….now if you have your shares lent out I do not know if you are the shareholder of record or your broker is as they lent out your shares….also if you are short EOSE you will be short those rights unless you cover before hand.

You will probably have to contact your broker to exercise and have cash on hand - keep checking you proxy messages in your account - where you need to vote for his to begin with

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

And that moved BE stock up 4x after Oracle moved the stock 4x by giving them a hyperscaler order a Everyone should go back to when Bloom fell to below $3…The equipment delivered was not working / warranties were going to bankrupt the company….no one was going to buy it….EOS is 3 years behind Bloom but the ramp up can be quicker

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

Not for widows and orphans I agree.

IMO Much riskier to be short than long at $10 because the dilution to come will involve rights given to retail longs - shorts will not get liquidity absent a small rump placement.

I agree that the entire old playbook went out the window (red flag) but this is a much more real investment than Softbank’s make believe $64 billion investment in OpenAI & that is the final positive- Joe has no say whatsoever in anything EOS is going to do he is just along for the ride. EOS will be posting investment gains from the valuation of their stake in the Frontier IPP….

Jane Street will decide where this stock and the IV in the options at 100%+ to two years goes & for Jane Street an upside squeeze is far more lucrative than shorting….pain trade is higher.

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

No Cerberus are acting to maximize their investment / that is their incentive.

The larger the EOS entity gets, the more interest it attracts from the larger IBs - who will raise the debt/capital for underwriting fees (they said 5x leverage)

The positive here is that Joe M is just taking marching orders from Cerberus

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@FuzzyPandaShort Do not forget the rights for all to purchase shares below market that the shorts will be short as well.....

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

Do you have any thoughts on the PFJ Deep Dive (out this past week - and I think helped the rally) on three possible paths and that a new solution is needed https://t.co/EGwCWnz5ke

Electricity prices was an issue in the NJ governor race and will be in most races House & Governors this fall…..

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

I am also long the Sugar futures curve - I think it is the diesel that is what will make the trade work and panic the shorts.

Algos & bots trade the gasoline / ethanol ratio (ethanol 70% energy density of gasoline) not programmed to wonder what happens in a diesel shortage.

Diesel cuts the sugar cane and trucks it to the crushing plants and trucks ethanol to the gas stations and sugar to export.

Diesel trucks all food around Brazil and in a shortage the sensible thing is to ration diesel for the domestic delivery use first - sugar can sit in warehouses and wait until this crisis is over. Add that it is financial speculators who are short sugar seeing years of surplus - Brazil can pay for importing and re-routing diesel on the back of HF losses on the sugar shorts - the farmers are who will benefit from higher prices.

Where fuel (and thus sugar) goes may not be set by financiers but by politicians in an election year w/ the population in agreement

Just my working hypothesis on how the front delivery contracts can go to backwardation in a Brazil of surplus came

#sugar #SBN26 #SBV26 $CANE

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

I am also long the Sugar futures curve - I think it is the diesel that is what will make the trade work and panic the shorts.

Algos & bots trade the gasoline / ethanol ratio (ethanol 70% energy density of gasoline) not programmed to wonder what happens in a diesel shortage.

Diesel cuts the sugar cane and trucks it to the crushing plants and trucks ethanol to the gas stations and sugar to export.

Diesel trucks all food around Brazil and in a shortage the sensible thing is to ration diesel for the domestic delivery use first - sugar can sit in warehouses and wait until this crisis is over. Add that it is financial speculators who are short sugar seeing years of surplus - Brazil can pay for importing and re-routing diesel on the back of HF losses on the sugar shorts - the farmers are who will benefit from higher prices.

Where fuel (and thus sugar) goes may not be set by financiers but by politicians in an election year w/ the population in agreement

Just my working hypothesis on how the front delivery contracts can go to backwardation in a Brazil of surplus came

#sugar #SBN26 #SBV26 $CANE

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

The only change in the Reporting Persons' beneficial ownership of securities of the Issuer since Amendment No. 7 to
this Schedule 13D was an increase in the number of shares of Common Stock of the Issuer issuable upon conversion
of the Series B-4 Preferred Stock that resulted solely from an antidilution adjustment made pursuant to the terms of
the Series B-4 Preferred Stock.

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@Ducnghia16 Alizée. https://t.co/tfkzSvGbcY

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@TotemMacro https://t.co/vIuQqdWooF

Some do.....

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@bert_gilfoyle Day 6 I believe this tweet is from @ces921 and should be today’s returns.

Look at bottom two - MS & GS Index swaps

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

$EOSE $FLNC $TE $IREN moving in lockstep yesterday - see the two worst performing Indices in the photo below.

If you trade a GS or MS Index on swap - to get instant exposure to a basket of stocks well you unwind through them as well to close.

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Update to the Factor Baskets: Algos Gone Wild

Correlations are picking up, VVIX is rising. We are getting closer to the Beta move

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

@x_times_1 $EOSE $IREN $TE $BE $FLNC all down -18% or so looks like a liquidation and nothing more - the symmetry is impressive - feel free to add other tickers

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

When $EOSE shares are -10%, Nasdaq Rule 201 kicks in and the algos cannot short to you on the bid.

Never trade at the market - limit buy orders when -10% or more and/or you can write puts (2 days out) and buy at $12 - NFA just pointing out rules + indicative prices

[Peter Penha @PeterPenha]

Chris am I wrong to take it to the limit that this should terrify those wealthy enough to use over funded Life Policies to someday pay the estate taxes so no actual assets get sold.

That would be one way to bring the 0.1 (and above) down to much lower « wealth » as assets being sold to raise cash lower asset values. (Ray Dalio recent comment that wealth is not money and when wealth gets forcibly liquidated society rebalances)

Has a situation like this ever been allowed to happen before ? I mean that a life insurer is not taken over by the others to keep it going.