Peter Zeihan

Geopolitical strategist, speaker, author. Join the Patreon →

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The release of my first fiction novel, Acceptable Range, is fast approaching. Pre-order today and receive one free month of Patreon access!

Order here ➡️ https://t.co/v9rAzVTlln

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Through scale, technology acquisition (more appropriately called theft), government subsidies, and demographics, #China emerged as the world's manufacturer. But it's those same forces that are going to bring China down.

#manufacturing #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

China is the world's premier #manufacturing superpower. There is no argument there. However, that doesn't mean China's industrial dominance is sustainable.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/H05xgzzXzd

#china #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Nvidia's (former) CEO, Jensen Huang, was caught with his hand in the honeypot. His alleged relationship with a Chinese spy has sparked controversy about the sale of restricted #Nvidia chips being funneled through a Singaporean company to #China.

#technology #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Expanding the U.S. electrical grid is one of the great problems of today. Reindustrialization necessitates at least 50% growth, and that's before factoring in the new data centers.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/VwU3BA3Aa2

#powergrid

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Xi Jinping has made it clear he plans to ride this ship all the way down. At the latest CCP Congress, more leaders were removed, but one official was elevated: Zhang Shengmin.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZPTGV38hen

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The European courts have sided with Tusk’s Civic Coalition for now, but Poles will ultimately have to decide for themselves which party is in the right.

#poland #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Poland’s political landscape is in the midst of a constitutional crisis over the issue of judicial appointments, reigniting a similar dispute from 2015.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/yDUuJ2VmNp

#geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

For the first time in the 2026 conflict, the Iranians have placed limpet mines on ships. This represents a fundamentally different sort of sabotage that is functionally impossible for the US Navy to prevent.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/T6IcuBMgOs

#iranwar #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The Chinese never walk away from a sector that they've dominated. They keep it, and just subsidize it more.

So, for example, in the early 2000s, the Chinese moved into textiles in a very big way. But Chinese labor costs have gone up by more than a factor of ten since then, and the Chinese are wildly, wildly noncompetitive in that sector now. Normally, that industry would have been offloaded to a less advanced economy ten years ago. That might have been Vietnam. Today, it might be Laos, Cambodia, or someplace in Africa. But the Chinese don't do that. They keep it all under lockdown.

You get local governments basically allocating 20 to 30% of their budgets to sectors that are noncompetitive because, from their point of view, it's the only way to generate revenue and taxes and keep their people employed. If you saw an outflow based on labor costs and labor productivity, easily half of the industries in China would pick up and leave. But they're basically not allowed to. Money just keeps getting pumped in.

So you get this debt bubble that is conservatively now 400% of GDP, just in the corporate space. And that's before you start considering that local governments have been borrowing money to keep those subsidies going, and the central government is now starting to get into that activity as well.

#china #manufacturing #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Brazil just wrapped up its elections with a presidential victory for Lula over Bolsonaro. And if those names sound familiar, it's because we've seen Lula and the Bolsonaro family duke it out for decades.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/kKjIRi76DD

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The real concern is about impacts on essential digital services. Since Russia only has around 200 facilities, it wouldn't take much to disrupt everyday business operations like transactions, telecommunications, and logistics.

#ukrainewar #datacenter

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

If you thought some Ukrainian strikes on data centers could stop the Russians from interfering with the U.S. midterms, you are sorely mistaken. These strikes pose a much greater threat to the Russian economy than to its online disinformation apparatus.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Fflwl8pMxI

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Faced with Russian threats and dwindling American support, Europe needs to figure out how to protect itself. Conventional forces aren't the right tool for the job, so they're going nuclear.

#nuclear #geopolitics #france #uk

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

It seems that everyone is dead set on banging their drum about the French protests, but here's what is actually happening.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/LYiPXtnToU

#france #protest #geopolitcs

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The Trump administration has issued temporary sanctions relief to allow for shipments of Russian diesel to the U.S. The reliability of the U.S. as a security partner is eroding. U.S. companies are reluctant to accept and distribute Russian diesel given the convoluted sanctions. And the conflict in the Persian Gulf (which is the real cause of the energy shortage) will continue to disrupt global energy flows until a diplomatic agreement is reached.

#crudeoil #iranwar #russia #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The United Kingdom and France are conducting joint nuclear weapons delivery exercises, but they're not the only countries eyeing nukes.

Full Newlsetter: https://t.co/5tAN2rCgl9

#nuke #nuclear #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

El Salvador invades Haiti with help from the Trump administration? Wait, what?

#geopolitics #haiti #elsalvador

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The climate thresholds established in the Paris Accords are looking less and less achievable. While developed economies are reducing emissions, the rest of the industrializing world still depends upon fossil fuels to keep things moving.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/BCg2Suzlgx

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

Fast forward to modern-day, and #China now has a massive strategic vulnerability: they are utterly dependent upon artificially transported water.

#watersupply #geopolitics

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

France isn’t the only one with a protest problem; #India is joining in on the fun, too. With fertilizer shortages, voting reforms, and the educated youth frustrated with limited opportunities, Modi and the government have their hands full.

Full Newsletter: https://t.co/n0G7klCbhE