Phil Birnbaum

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

In the top of the final inning of a deciding game, the Dodgers take the lead when #16 hits a solo HR off a fine veteran SP appearing in relief.
In the bottom half, their Canadian opponents put 2 men on but can't score. Rogers winds up deeply disappointed.

(2025; also, 1981.)

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@barstoolsports @spittinchiclets It's so Canadian I didn't even find it unusual.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@PayPal Hi, PayPal! You converted my currency instead of letting my credit card do it, but that's not what I wanted and you charge much more than the credit card,
over 4% of the total. How do I reverse that after the transaction? Couldn't find it on your website.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@DownGoesBrown Isn't an accidental high stick that doesn't affect the play with time running out in regulation of a tied playoff Game 6 the archetype of "penalty that refs don't normally call and everyone knows it"? Or have the standards changed?

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

The goal will become a touchstone in the lives of young Leaf fans who had never seen their team advance in a best-of-seven series, but had had their hearts broken and hopes dashed by the near misses of the preceding years.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

Saturday, April 29: The Toronto Maple Leafs score in the fifth-minute of OT for a 2-1 victory on the road. The goal, scored by a future hall-of-famer, wins the best-of-seven series and ends a long playoff drought.

1978. (Also, 2023.)

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@tangotiger Sean Smith has posted a couple of comments.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

I think the usual WAR calculation for a pitcher winds up double-counting home fielding. I think that's why Whitey Ford's 1961 season comes out so low -- his fielders turned a lot more balls into outs at Yankee Stadium than they did on the road.

New post: https://t.co/N3kReKfLN0

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@EddyElfenbein Isn't that always true?

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@manforoneseason If 10% of games are drawn, the SD of luck equals about .524/root(games). Var(luck)=.274375/games.

Is that the calculation you needed? Just treat a draw as half a win.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

Home field advantage in baseball appears to naturally increase as run scoring goes up (as, for instance, in Coors Field).
My new post: https://t.co/n0K013TpCq

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@manforoneseason @tangotiger Just saw this! Will think about it.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@EddyElfenbein Where are the customers' yachts?

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@EddyElfenbein That's only 18% a year. That's the best you can do for a retroactive pick? :)

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@tangotiger If I'm trying to pick a word that's hard to guess, and you choose the best strategy given that I'm trying to pick a word that's hard to guess, what's your best strategy?

Also, is there a strategy that will guess any word in six moves, even at the expense of the average score?

[Bill James Online @billjamesonline]

Very sorry to hear of the passing of Mark Pankin. Dr. Pankin devoted many thousands of hours to helping create baseball resources which are used by everybody, and did it just because he wanted to. God bless you, Mark.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@EddyElfenbein Whom

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@EddyElfenbein Savings account, credit card account, Google account, IR account.

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@thorn_john I am disappointed that everyone talks about the famous Romer study on the fourth down issue, but barely anyone mentions The Hidden Game, even though that was many years earlier and came to largely the same conclusions. (Romer does cite the book and mention it in two footnotes.)

[Phil Birnbaum @PhilBirnbaum]

@StatsbyLopez @tangotiger Do kickers try long distances in practice? You'd think coaches would want to have an estimate in hand for situations like these ...