$RKLB is expected to earn ~$1.7B of cumulative EBITDA over next four years once Neutron starts flying and reusable boosters spread the same build cost across more launches.
The ~$2.4B backlog already shows demand is there so now it really comes down to how quickly Neutron ramps and turns that into higher-margin launch revenue.
$RKLB has already proven it can launch reliably with Electron and HASTE but Neutron is what determines how big launch business can become.
Neutron carries 13,000 kg to LEO versus Electron’s 300 kg (more than 40x the payload) opening door to larger constellation and national security missions Electron was never built to serve.
Customers are already buying into that next phase with a ~$2.4B backlog, 90+ booked launches and more than $1B of additional contracts signed in Q3.