I received several reactions to the discussion I hosted about how nuclear weapons may be used against Europe to restore deterrence. To be clear, this is not a normative argument about what I think should happen or what I think is just. My argument is what I think will happen. European leaders have become so deeply involved in the attacks on Russia that the Kremlin is under great pressure to restore its deterrence.
Once Russia retaliates with conventional weapons against European targets (weapons facilities, logistics centres), the Europeans will more forcefully attack Russia. At this point, I believe that it is more likely than not that Russia could launch a limited nuclear strike (with tactical nuclear weapons, not strategic). This should not be a controversial prediction. NATO countries are doing the war planning; their intelligence agencies are doing the targeting; their contractors are pulling the trigger; they are supplying the long-range weapons; and they are also using NATO territory to strike Russia. This will only escalate as the Europeans are talking about mass-producing long-range weapons for "Ukraine" to strike deeper and deeper inside Russia, and are setting dates for when Europe will directly attack.
Our political leaders are obsessed with defeating the world's largest nuclear power, which considers itself to be fighting in a war for its existence. It should worry us that our political leaders did not define what a NATO victory looks like in this scenario, and we should also be worried that our political leaders have incrementally become so directly involved in attacks on Russia and still pretend it is merely a war between Russia and Ukraine. Our political leaders sabotaged both the Minsk peace agreement and the Istanbul agreement, and then shut down all diplomacy for more than 4 years while declaring that "weapons are the path to peace". It is obligatory in Europe to pretend this is about "helping Ukraine", but this is dangerous self-delusion.
Where exactly did we think this was heading? Is nuclear war not the obvious end? Can anyone imagine it ending in any different ways if we had done this during the Cold War or if Russia were now similarly attacking the US through a proxy? Biden once said that sending F-16s meant World War 3, yet now it has become controversial to point out that NATO clearly crossing the line between proxy war and direct war will trigger a nuclear war. I see no morality in such self-delusion. NATO escalations are now out of control, we are heading to war, and that war will not be limited to conventional weapons. The fact that this is dismissed as a "pro-Russian" argument demonstrates how completely lost we have become in mindless war propaganda.
https://t.co/6q1ZzNOkkp
It has taken a great deal to arrive at this point…
For those of us who have been awake for years, this was never a dramatic overnight awakening or a single defining moment that changed everything. It was a gradual erosion of illusion, a slow dismantling of narratives we were raised to trust, and a very painful confrontation with truths that we would have preferred not to see.
We did not swallow the darkness in one overwhelming gulp, we absorbed it in stages, as each layer of deception revealed itself, forcing us to completely recalibrate our understanding of the world and reality.
There was shock, disbelief, disgust, anger, frustration and eventually that awful sense of unease and uncertainty that comes when you realise you were lied to about everything.
Alongside that internal reckoning came the external consequences; labels, ridicule and relationships that faded because confronting what we were seeing would have required them to question their own foundations.
We paid a social and emotional price for asking questions, but we remained steady because we understood that truth, however destabilising, is the only path to freedom.
We had years to process what is now breaking open in real time. We had time to research, to reflect, to argue internally, to despair and then to rebuild our inner footing. We developed emotional resilience because we were forced to, but those waking up now do not have that gradual unfolding.
They are not being introduced to uncomfortable truths one at a time; they are being confronted with a convergence of revelations all at once. What many of us processed over many years, they are having to digest in a matter of weeks.
That process is destabilising, and deeply frightening. If we have been awake longer, this is not the moment for superiority or quiet vindication. We can all remember what it felt like when the veil first lifted and the ground beneath us seemed to move. We’ve all been there at some stage.
Awakening is not a competition over who saw it first. It is a collective psychological and moral transition that requires strength, clarity, and a measure of compassion.
If the goal is genuine freedom rather than merely being correct, then we must recognise that not everyone had the same timeline. Some needed to see more evidence, others needed to experience the consequences personally, and some are only now finding the courage to look.
The storm is no longer something on the horizon; it is unfolding in full view. Millions are encountering truths that once isolated a small minority, and they are doing so without the gradual preparation that many of us had.
It took years for many of us to integrate what we know today. Allow others the space to do the same, because if this awakening is to lead anywhere meaningful, it will require not just exposure, but the rebuilding of resilience, discernment, unity and moral courage across society.