*KEVIN WARSH CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR IN SENATE VOTE
The market (red and green) is pointing to Fed HIKES while the Fed (blue) and Warsh's statements are pointing toward CUTS.
Warsh needs to get everyone on the same page.
Warsh starts Friday.
It's official:
Nvidia, $NVDA, has surpassed silver as the second largest asset in the world, worth $5.52 trillion.
Google is less than 4% away from becoming the second company in history to hit $5 trillion in market cap.
We are witnessing a historic technological revolution.
BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially posts its longest win streak since October 2025, now up +8% since the March 30th low.
That's +$4.5 TRILLION in market cap in 8 trading days.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $117/barrel as President Trump's 8 PM ET deadline approaches.
Our models now suggest US CPI inflation will rise to 3.7% if current prices are sustained for ~7 more weeks.
HORMUZ SHUTDOWN RISKS FUEL SUPPLY
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would severely disrupt fuel supply, with about 5 million barrels per day—including LPG—passing through it. Unlike crude oil, there are no alternative pipelines for these products, and strategic reserves are limited outside OECD Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
🇨🇳 CHINESE TRADER MAKES $500M BET AGAINST SILVER
Zhongcai Futures made more than $500 million after shorting silver ahead of its recent price plunge, according to exchange data.
The firm built large bearish positions in late January, equivalent to about 484 tonnes of silver, as prices topped $100 an ounce before falling sharply. Despite the drop, silver remains up about 24% this year.
The gains highlight extreme volatility in precious metals and the growing influence of Asian traders in global markets.
Good Morning from #Germany, where electricity prices have soared this week due to a period of "dark doldrums." With foggy weather & hardly any wind, renewable energy production dropped significantly. As a result, Germany had to import more electricity than ever before.
Scientists have been communicating with Apes via sign language since the 1960s; Apes have never asked one question.
One plausible theory is that apes don't realize other beings possess knowledge they don't. For humans, this understanding comes early. A young child knows that if he can’t find his toy, he can ask his parents. He naturally understands that others might have information he doesn’t have.
Apes might not have this "theory of mind" — the understanding that other entities can have thoughts and knowledge distinct from their own. This cognitive ability allows humans to delve into the minds of others, predict behaviors, and yes, seek knowledge.
It is an Ape Thread!🧵
September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks:
The S&P 500 has fallen -2.3% on average in September over the last 10 years, marking the only month with negative returns.
Since World War II, the average September return has been negative, at -0.8%.
Moreover, the Volatility Index, $VIX, has seen an average spike of ~10% in September over the last 33 years.
Subsequently, in October and November, the S&P 500 has seen a +1.6% and +3.8% rally on average.
Markets are entering their most volatile period of the year.
Global equity supply is now the most negative it has been since 1999.
Year to date, global public equity supply has declined by $120 billion.
This is three times higher than the $40 billion decline that occurred in 2023.
We are also on track for a third straight year of declines for the first time in history.
All as Goldman Sachs expects stock buybacks to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever in 2025.
Bullish sentiment is so strong that corporations want their stock back.
Recent examples.
At the end of 2021, Wall Street strategists expected a bull market for 2022.
We got a slaughterhouse instead.
At the end of 2022, they expected a bear market for 2023.
We got a massive rally instead.
See a pattern here?
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