Most insane chart in markets right now?
Hyperscalers are no longer free cash flow machines like they were as they led the market higher in 22-25 as a safety trade (with huge net interest income due to higher rates)
12mo forward FCF estimates for AMZN, GOOG, META & ORCL have plummeted:
~$300B peak -> ~$0 today
Every dollar now goes to SMH, DRAM:
Semi’s FCF estimates: $450B (and vertical)
@Brad_Setser Trump is happy with China right now as they are keeping a lid on Brent with lower Chinese crude imports and SPR releases. Since they are helping Trump out during the US-Iran War, he’s in kind relaxing the Tariff policy against them.
After a few months of waiting finally in the green with my significant Food Sector investment KHC CAG GIS CPB. Was contemplating selling, but someone sent me this today and now there is hope!
A global unwind of the crowded "Magnificent 7" trade could spark capital flight from the U.S., weakening the dollar while simultaneously pressuring both U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds.
Learn more: https://t.co/RCfLh8HD33
#stock#gold#economy#finance@DanielaCambone@pboockvar
Gold Miners' Earnings Season: The quarter after "Peak Margins" 💰⛏️
The eagerly anticipated earnings season in the gold mining sector will begin again in just a few days.
It is already certain that gold producers' margins reached their preliminary high in the first quarter of 2026. The average gold price in the first quarter was approximately $4,900 per ounce. For the second quarter, the estimated selling price of gold from mines is around $4,400 per ounce.
However, even with a gold price of $4,000 and ongoing cost inflation and rising energy costs (assuming AISC of $2,000), most gold producers will continue to generate substantial profits and excellent AISC margins of $2k+/oz.
Now, let's take a look at the AISC margin leaders in the gold mining sector for the first quarter of 2026. 🪙👇
Gold Miners: AISC/Profit Margin Leaders Q1/2026 ($/oz)
1. Thor Explorations: 3,884 👑 $THX.v
2. Lundin Gold: 3,837 👑
3. Artemis Gold: 3,705 👑
Own the best assets and let time take care of the rest. Who owns the best assets in the precious metals space? $NEM, or $B, and where does $SBSW rank? Compared to 2011, asset quality of the whole group below is much better today.