PlusEVBagholder

+EV poker player making +EV stock picks

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

The 9-5 pays the bills. The portfolio buys the freedom.

Disclaimer: Not a CPA/FA. Information may be outdated or incorrect. I may hold positions in any stocks discussed.

Just a guy with a spreadsheet sharing his homework. DYODD.

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

@mathlonning $TMDX is just a matter of when not if

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@NotA_Bull $KSS @ $19

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $32
P/E 8x, P/TB 0.5x, P/FCF 2x

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

base case assumes revenue stays flat, bull case assumes their 5 year revenue growth rate goal is reached +5%

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

Blended IRR vs entry price
$ADT @ $7

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $11
True IRR +27% annual, +142% 5Y total return

Green KPIs: P/E 9x, P/FCF 4x

Latest insider buy: Likosar Jeffrey (Pres Corp Dev & Trans. & CFO), May 29, 2026, +2% vs prior holdings

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@NotA_Bull $KSS

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@hood__house gold card >

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$CMCSA @ $24
5Y DCF - Fair Value $42
Elevator Pitch
78% upside at current price with my dcf assumptions.
Bears focus on Losing Cable TV customers, which is fine. The real money is in broadband. Cable TV you have to pay all the channels/media affiliate fees etc, hurting margins. Broadband is internet cables, once the cable is laid the money printer begins. (3.9b FCF a quarter) Now what stops customers from leaving to go to a cheaper internet provider? It used to be Cable TV bundled with internet, Now it is bundling phone plan, which helps retention. They have a similar playbook as $CHTR but less risk because they print free cashflow and are less leveraged. The other parts of the business are growing topline rapidly and plan to be spun out in a year - Peacock, Epic theme parks, and other media. Wall street has given comcast a conglomerate discount for a long time, and now in a year it'll be a pureplay broadband business, following $T ATT playbook. Remember in 2018 ATT owned Warner brothers, and got rid of it to become a pureplay? Now their operating margin is 19.8% compared to comcast's 15%.
Green KPIs (P/E 5x, P/FCF 5x)
Q2 Earnings before market open July 23rd!

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[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

Blended IRR vs entry price
$KSS @ $17

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $41
True IRR +48% annual, +227% 5Y total return

Green KPIs: P/E 7x, P/TB 0.5x, P/FCF 2x

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

Blended IRR vs entry price
$TMDX @ $76

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $147
True IRR +26% annual, +205% 5Y total return

Green KPIs: 5Y CAGR 88%

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

@DrewCohenMoney $KMX Carvana

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

$162, 1Y +12%, 3Y +26%
$YUM @ $162

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $113
~30% downside

Bought out of the money puts out of the money after earnings. I think the Tacobell diarrhea parasite will cause their Q3 guidance to drop, and itll drop further throughout the year, so will have to check out the longer term puts or shorts. taco bell is nasty! Pizza hut too. I started a tiny position.
Green KPIs: ROIC 44% Q1 Rev growth 15%

https://t.co/9Q7cQlO2AH

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@remarks Yep I'm buying $Yum Puts

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@DudeWhoInvests into Vibe coding

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@ariaradnia $nke is/was one of those high pe "moated" low growth stocks, its a moat full of crap. netflix however, deserves the netflix and chill multiple premium.

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

@InvestingAddict This is why I keep my money in a checkings account so i don't lose anything

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

@NotA_Bull Regulatory pressures are unpredictable

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

@0xtechquity I think a turn around in $LULU is more likely to happen. NIKE is too big to turn around. think about a big boat, its harder to turn around haha. Lulu has growth in other countries, usa just needs to stop the bleed

[PlusEVBagholder @PlusEVBagholder]

$ADBE @ $231

Even weighing the bear, and base case scenario for adobe at 80% it still yields a nice high IRR. I think having a revenue growth rate of 13% in Q2 and a PE of 13 shows it is probably an easy hold. bear case assumptions in the photo below

5Y DCF @ 10% discount rate - Fair Value $308
True IRR +17% annual, +126% 5Y total return

Green KPIs: 5Y CAGR 13%, ROIC 53%

Latest insider buy: Ricks David A (Director), Jun 25, 2026, +131% vs prior holdings

https://t.co/d336eLul0y