Phil MrOil

Former analyst & PM Oil and Gas advisor. Historian specializing in oil and gas and geopolitical ME affairs. Poli Sci past master.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@Amena__Bakr UAEXIT?

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@HormuzLetter 100+ days after the start of the Iran war and things keep going from bad to worse. Trump should announce how close he is to another imminent deal before the market opens.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

Iran is signaling it is going to accept Longer Pain for more Gain. The closure of the strait of Hormuz is their new nuclear option and they won't trade away this option easily. A summer of discontent beckons at the gas pump.
#oott #IranWar‌

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Iran’s Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad:

“For Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz is more important to us than an atomic bomb.”

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@Osint613 Iran is signally they are willing to accept Long Pain for More Gain using the strait of Hormuz as future leverage.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@StrickerNonpro Iran will still ask for those funds to be returned regardless. This won't change anything except maybe prolonging the negotiations.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@OilHeadlineNews Sounds like all other US war objectives that won't be met.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@KobeissiLetter To put it in perspective Venezuelan oil is higher but way down from 10-15 yrs ago. It's a recovery off the bottom.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@Osint613 'no reason to get Iran nuclear dust'
No point in negotiating a non-deal as all the US original war objectives are also dust. Trump is inching closer and closer to asking Iran nicely to open strait with bags of goodies. While having a perfect dinner with the Ayatollah.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@JavierBlas Inventory buffers only last so long, China is no exception. 5 million bbls of oil substitution from their nebolous, opaque oil inventory is a temporary solution. Sure they wisely built a massive SPR and they will want all that oil back at some point for safety & security. #oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

Perhaps the Iran-US war just fizzles out, all demands and enforcement slowly dissolve away. Strait unofficially opens very slowly as both parties turn a blind eye to real enforcement. The rate of US oil inventory drop that may have to happen. Much like the fake ceasefire.
#oott

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

So the US is now saying to Iran, if you don’t accept this deal, we will strike you?

I mean, what do you think Iran is going to say after Trump already chickened on 3 of his own self imposed deadlines?

To me, the diplomacy path is DOA. Escalate or capitulate. Pick.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@AJENews Maybe by design US oil inventory is plunging at unprecedented rates.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@Polymarket So nothing has changed. Non story.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@annmarie Consider? He has considered running for three terms. Meaningless rhetoric.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

Changing his tune with plunging oil inventories. 60% to 80% oil price rise? Can't even say summer of $100 plus oil.
#oil #oott

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

@PolemicTMM Very interesting. The inventory drawdown is a big deal and I can see how we go from currently 60 percent to 80 percent for the oil price rise. But - then again - a peace deal will bring prices right back down and that's also a real possibility (though admittedly unpredictable)...

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

"currently no message exchange with the U.S."

And...Iran takes 6 days or more to respond and when it does it refuses to discuss the main reason Trump started the war concerning Iran's nuclear program.

#oott #Iran

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN SAYS U.S. MESSAGE EXCHANGE HALTED

An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last communication with Washington concerned Lebanon and drew international attention, despite President Trump stating negotiations are advancing rapidly.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

6 days to hear back from Iran with Rubio admitting the Iranians have refused to discuss their nuclear ambitions or uranium enrichment. This is where the world stands after 3 months of the strait of Hormuz being closed with oil inventory plunging at record levels. #oott #Iran

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

RUBIO SAYS IT COULD TAKE MORE THAN 6 DAYS TO HEAR BACK FROM IRAN.

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

'may negotiate over some aspects of nuclear file 'for the first time'

Botched war and after 3 months still no discussion about the US main concern regarding Iran's nuclear program. Contradicting numerous Trump tweets.
#oott #IranWar‌

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Rubio says Tehran may negotiate over some aspects of nuclear file 'for the first time'

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/Mnm6iiX7I6

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@AJENews 'for the first time'
After 3 months nothing!
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

Rubio admits the first priority is to open the strait of Hormuz. Botched war has left prior US war objectives an afterthought. Sounds desperate.
#IranWar #oott

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

RUBIO SAYS CONDITION NO 1 IN IRAN TALKS IS THAT IRAN OPENS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

RUBIO: IRAN HAS TO ANNOUNCE VERY CLEARLY HORMUZ STRAIT IS NOW OPEN

RUBIO: IRAN ALSO HAS TO COMMIT TO SPECIFIC NEGOTIATIONS ON DISPOSITION OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@DeItaone NO 1 condition? Was open before the war started. All the original US war objects are now relics of a botched war.
#oott

[Phil MrOil @PMroil]

@BRICSinfo On the other hand Iran closed the strait of Hormuz which is causing fits, especially during Trump's public phone call with Bibi.
#oott