đ NFL Film + Analytics | QB Play ⢠Scheme ⢠Protection ⢠Coaching | Looking at WHY plays happenânot just the result. | Beyond the Box Score.
This is bigger than Herbert. Itâs a QB conversation.
Kurt Warner sees it. Russell Wilson has touched on it. Dan has talked about it.
Three QBs with VERY different NFL careers, all recognizing something similar: Herbert doesnât look comfortable.
And that matters.
When a QB who has given you years of tape suddenly starts looking uncharacteristic, the evaluation canât stop at:
âThe QB is playing bad.â
Of course he is. Herbert threw the INTs. Heâs missed throws. He deserves criticism for that.
But evaluating a QB without evaluating what heâs being asked to operate is like blaming a race car driver for slower lap times without asking what changed under the hood.
Maybe the driver made mistakes. Hold him accountable for them.
But if the same driver suddenly canât take corners heâs handled for years, youâd be foolish not to inspect the car tooâŚ.
Scheme dictates what youâre asked to process. Footwork affects timing. Protection affects your internal clock. Route concepts determine where the answers are. And when a QB starts thinking instead of reacting, everything can look a half second slow.
This applies to ANY quarterback.
Good coaching isnât proving your QB can execute your offenseâŚ.
Itâs building an offense that allows your QB to play fast and consistently do what he does best.
When experienced NFL quarterbacks watch the tape and repeatedly say âthis doesnât look like him,â thatâs worth paying attention to.
I know there are a bunch of really smart ppl in the Chargers building, but the tape is leaving me befuddled conceptually! It almost feels like they are trying things bc #Herbert is a freak and they think he can do things others canât, but it makes little sense!
Yes, I felt Herbert was uncomfortable earlier in year & missed some OPPs being tentative, yesterday, he had a couple bad INTs, but so many concepts left me uncomfortable for him watching the tape!
Harbaugh does not have a history of firing coordinators in season, so this is no surprise.
However, if the Chargers offense still looks terrible in the coming weeks after the bye maybe his loyalty could cost him his job.
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker remains on the Chiefsâ 53-man roster. Kansas City had a practice squad spot, and now is bringing in depth and competition.
âYour team lost to a team we beat, so that means weâre better than you!â
Thatâs not how football works.
Matchups matter. Injuries matter. Schemes matter. Coaching adjustments matter. Even when you play a team matters.
A team in Week 3 isnât necessarily the same team in Week 12. Personnel changes, coaches adapt, and strengths against one opponent can become weaknesses against another.
Football isnât a math equation where A beats B, B beats C, therefore A must beat C.
If evaluating teams were that simple, nobody would need to watch film.
Final scores tell you who won. Context helps explain why.
Notable things Alex smith said on his interview with the @BussinWTB that I will never get off my soapbox about.
âAs a Quarterback youâre such a product of the people around you. Youâre such a product of the situation and scheme that youâre running.â
âQuarterbacks playing good are usually in good situations. Itâs a rarity that those guys are just out there doing it themselves.â
Heâs not the only former NFL QB to say this. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Dan Fouts, Eli Manning, and many others have said similar things.
I will say thatâs the paradox of the position: The QB is expected to carry the team while simultaneously needing to be carried.
Context matters.
I never went off-topic. You asked why Herbert was being discussed. I showed you the exact timestamp where the panel brought him up and explained why. Danny was highlighting the difference in how Nick evaluates Mahomes versus other QBs facing adversity. YOU then brought up MVPs, Super Bowls and career accomplishments. I simply addressed the arguments you introduced. đ¤ˇââď¸
For someone whose name is literally âtheQuestion,â you sure ask a lot of questions you donât seem interested in having answered. đ Asking a question, ignoring the explanation, then claiming nobody answered you isnât a rebuttal. Itâs just going in circles.
Tell âem, Danny. đŻ
The hypocrisy in QB evaluation is glaring.
When Mahomes struggles, context matters. When Herbert, Allen or others struggle, suddenly itâs all on the QB.
Same position. Same standards.
Context is not an excuse. Consistency matters. Context matters.
@DannyParkins: âIt was a really tough spot for Mahomes so I wanna dig a little deeper into how it went.â
@getnickwright: âThatâs literally not what he did. Youâre trying to do some funny stupid Justin Herbert or something ridiculous.â
D: âYou nailed it! Itâs Justin Herbert!" đ
Seattle investing in its offensive line is another reminder of how important roster construction is to quarterback success.
A great QB can elevate the players around him, but that doesnât mean the players around him donât matter.đ¤ˇââď¸
Protection, receiving talent, rushing efficiency and coaching all influence how effectively a quarterback can perform.
The best organizations understand that building around their QB is just as important as finding the right one.
A franchise quarterback is a cornerstone, not the entire foundation.
Context matters. So does the right GM.
Trade: Colts have agreed to send eight-time Pro-Bowl guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks, per me and @rapsheet. Nelson is on an expiring contract and the Colts are opting to get back draft capital now before they could lose him in free agency.
But an all-time Colt now moves on to the Seahawks.
I think weâre having two completely different conversations.
Youâre arguing whoâs had the better career. Iâm arguing whether Nick applies the same evaluation standards when assigning responsibility for individual games.
Mahomesâ accomplishments are incredible. Iâve never disputed that. But trophies donât change how offensive-line injuries, receiver play, defensive performance or coaching affect a QB.
This is 2024:
Herbert: 3,870 yards, 23 TD, 3 INT, 101.7 rating.
Mahomes: 3,928 yards, 26 TD, 11 INT, 93.5 rating.
One reached the Super Bowl. The other lost in the Wild Card. Does that automatically tell us who individually performed better? No.
My 2025 extreme-pressure research adds context. In the documented games above 45% pressure:
Herbert: 2â3, 1,143 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT.
Mahomes: 0â2, 439 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT.
Different sample sizes, but adversity affected both.
And this is exactly what Dannyâs comparison was illustrating. Not that Herbert is greater than Mahomes, but how misleading isolated box-score comparisons can be when context is ignored.
If Nick places most of the blame on Herbert despite poor protection and limited support, but gives Mahomes more grace when those circumstances affect him, thatâs the inconsistency Iâm questioning.
I donât excuse Herbertâs mistakes. I wouldnât excuse Mahomesâ either.
Imagine two weightlifters failing a lift. Their previous medals tell you who has accomplished more. They donât tell you how heavy the weight was, what equipment they had or why they struggled.
Past accomplishments establish a resume. They donât replace evaluating present circumstances.
Context isnât excuses. Itâs ALWAYS apart of the evaluation. đ¤ˇââď¸
Youâre asking two different questions now.
Initially, you asked why I brought up Herbert and Allen. I explained that. Now youâre asking why they were brought up in the segment itself.
Hereâs the context.
Danny isnât arguing Herbert is better than Mahomes. Heâs not questioning Mahomesâ accomplishments or greatness.
Heâs challenging the consistency of how quarterbacks are evaluated.
Nick regularly uses statistical graphics and individual performances to criticize Herbert. Danny is demonstrating what happens when that same approach is applied to Mahomes.
When Mahomes struggles, weâre encouraged to examine his protection, receivers, running game and coaching. Especially by Nick Wright.
Which is absolutely reasonable. I agree with doing that.
But why shouldnât those same circumstances matter when evaluating Herbert, Allen, Burrow or Maye?
Thatâs the argument.
And bringing up Mahomesâ MVPs, Super Bowls and career accomplishments doesnât actually address it.
His career accomplishments establishes his greatness. It doesnât change the circumstances of an individual performance or justify applying different evaluation standards to other QBs.
You can believe Mahomes is better than every QB mentioned AND acknowledge inconsistent analysis.
Those positions arenât mutually exclusive.
@ivefewquestions I time stamped it for you.
Based on youâre responses I can assume youâre just reading the headline and not diving into the context of the video.
For contextâŚ
Michael Irvin said on The White House podcast:
âI saw a fear in Patrick Mahomes.â
Thatâs interesting to me, because I wonder how much of what he saw was Mahomes becoming increasingly conscious of the pass rush.
Against Seattle, NFL Next Gen Stats recorded pressure on 38.9% of his dropbacks (14 of 36).
Kenneth Walker III managed just 36 yards on 14 carries. Add injuries along the offensive line and at receiver on top of that.
Thereâs a reason NFL teams invest so heavily in their starters.đ¤ˇââď¸
And hereâs something I think people overlook:
Football is a game of INCHES and MILLISECONDS.
Consider what 0.03 seconds means.
Thatâs just 30 milliseconds.
At 15 mph, a defender travels roughly 8 inches in that time.
A blocker reacting 0.03 seconds sooner could be the difference between a defender reaching the QB and the QB getting his throw away.
Three extra inches of receiver separation could create just enough room for a completion instead of a pass breakup.
These are obviously illustrations, not measured differences between starters and backups. But they demonstrate how small the margins can be.
NFL Next Gen Stats even incorporates receiver separation, pass-rusher proximity and time to throw into its evaluation of passing difficulty for a reason.
So imagine several starters being replaced simultaneously.
One protection assignment is executed slightly slower. A receiver doesnât separate quite as quickly. The QB has to move before his route develops.
Individually, these differences might look insignificant.
Collectively, they can change third-down conversions, sacks, turnovers, touchdowns and ultimately the game.
Does that excuse Mahomes for poor decisions? Absolutely not. I say that for any QB.
But it helps explain why even elite quarterbacks can struggle when the supporting pieces around them arenât performing.
And that standard should apply to Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Dak, Love, Purdy, Lamar and EVERY quarterback.
Context matters.