William Bowe

Editor of the Australian elections and polling site Does a bit of work for @climate200 and @9NewsAus. Also at

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Republicans don't just admire different people from Democrats. They have lower opinions of almost everyone.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

To be a news consumer right now is to be constantly bombarded with this sort of crap: "One Nation’s stance would tackle Labor’s war on investors ... (but) allow all Australians to continue to take advantage of the scheme, which set so many up for a life of financial stability."

[The West Australian @westaustralian]

One Nation has revealed for the first time its stance on negative gearing and capital gains tax, with Pauline Hanson making the announcement.
https://t.co/W3xxthxFfz

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

https://t.co/cNaUGrj4mF

[JWS Research @jwsresearch]

With the backing of @CCI_WA, we conducted research across WA capturing community sentiment on the importance of maintaining the current GST arrangements & the broader economic implications for the state. The West Australian reported on the findings: https://t.co/SvexBHlzco

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Constantly throughout 2024: "Labor’s only chance now is with anyone but Albo, as soon as possible." 4/4 https://t.co/KUHg7ZkpR8

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Cameron Milner has his crystal ball out again. Let's see how well it's served him in the past.

[The West Australian @westaustralian]

The Federal Budget has destroyed Jim Chalmers’ chance to ever be prime minister. https://t.co/91SOrIahnZ

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Three weeks out: "Labor still looks the far more likely to regain minority government that will itself be a particularly cruel political purgatory in the next term." 3/4
https://t.co/j9L8wrmz7G

[Emmett Stinson @EmmettStinson]

When you complete your PhD in literature, you are given the actual list of the 100 greatest books, which are kept secret from normal people. Unfortunately, I am not allowed to tell you what they are and, even if I did, you wouldn't understand them.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

@marschoc Some mysteries are beyond the power of science to explain

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

*Maybe* because Greens voters less favourably disposed to Labor switched to Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis, who didn't run in 2024?

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

For other readers befuddled by this detail, here's the headline -- despite the Greens depriving Labor of an HTV card recommendation, there was a non-trivial increase in their flow of preferences to Labor at yesterday's Stafford by-election.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

@marschoc *One* of the reasons

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Cheers - yes, to be clear, those are direct preference flow figures, and not from the preference distribution

[Leo Puglisi @Leo_Puglisi6]

@PollBludger The 2024 figure? Antony Green's website had it https://t.co/ONMxkh0PvU

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

For other readers befuddled by this detail, here's the headline -- despite the Greens depriving Labor of an HTV card recommendation, there was a non-trivial increase in their flow of preferences to Labor at yesterday's Stafford by-election.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

I'd be interested to know where you got it from though, because I had to retrieve it from the depths of the media feed archive.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

I'd be interested to know where you got it from though, because I had to retrieve it from the depths of the media feed archive.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

I actually think you were right, @Leo_Puglisi6 - 83.7% is the GRN-to-ALP flow the ECQ was showing in 2024 before it withdrew the data, which I think it does when it moves to the check count. The result from the preference exclusion was 81.5%.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

I actually think you were right, @Leo_Puglisi6 - 83.7% is the GRN-to-ALP flow the ECQ was showing in 2024 before it withdrew the data, which I think it does when it moves to the check count. The result from the preference exclusion was 81.5%.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

The headline is bullshit though. Rowland's office said the Libs were "choosing to demonise migrants and focus on this matter", not choosing to demonise migrants *by* focusing on this matter.

[Julie Szego @JulieSzego]

Right. Seems Labor is happy to be a party of the elites pushing radical ideologies. Good luck with that.

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. https://t.co/d9DmsB5HR3

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): https://t.co/4srYD7sHNM

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. https://t.co/d9DmsB5HR3

[William Bowe @PollBludger]

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. https://t.co/d9DmsB5HR3