#GenX business owner, President of @MainStResearch & @MainStUSAPolls, Chairman @politicalintel . Founder @asterocoin_ASTR I play defense. #onpoli#cdnpoli
BREAKING: Nate Erskine-Smith says he will not run for Liberal leader, making the announcement to supporters at his farewell party moments ago.
“I am not,” he said.
More to come: https://t.co/729aN5dTWf
🆕 Join Kyla and Gabe in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question":
Is Toronto done with Olivia Chow? Featuring @pollingcanada.
Subscribe to the pod and join our guest, President of @MainStResearch, for a conversation about @oliviachow v @BradMBradford and the state of the Toronto Mayoral Race, including a snapshot look at support for the Toronto Island airport expansion⬇️
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I don't normally publish my internal polling for the party unless I'm directed to by Kory or Premier Ford.
My work can be corroborated by other campaign team members, other pollsters I worked with throughout that campaign, certain journalists that I shared weekly and nightly results with - who know exactly what I was predicting.
Obviously, I still have a job with the PCCS and the PC Party.... so.... I must be doing something right. 🤷
Stay positive Quito. Keep punching. Your life is so shit right now that I don't think it could get worse. Things can only get better!
😘
LISTEN: How close is the race right now between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford? @millandmaitmom breaks down the numbers with @pollingcanada https://t.co/UC01uqBn6Q
lol, oh your final poll was close, I guess you can make that claim 18 months later when you don’t publish anything
Here’s mine, it was actually published https://t.co/on2WwbBcaq
In January, you showed PCs 36 - OLP 30.
My internal polling never showed a 25 point lead for the PCs over the Liberals. The most I ever had was a 19-point lead and it lasted for about 10 days before it tightened up to 15 points.
In the end, I had a 15-point lead for the PCs and the PCs won by 13-points.
You had Crombie ahead by more than 10-points.
You had Gasparro ahead by more than 10-points.
You had other large/significant errors as well.
Anyways, hope you're having a great summer Quito 😘😘😘
Revisionist history aside, here is the poll he is referring to, it showed a 10 point margin for the PCs
https://t.co/iTFlnkedFM
At that time, the “internals” showed a massive 25 point lead with the OLP/NDP in a statistical tie
The internals were wrong
I remember when (Jan 2025) 2 pollsters - 1 after the other - released polling showing the Ontario Liberals within a few points of the Ontario PCs, just before the election.
And, those who wanted that to be true, got their Vaseline out 🤔
I literally just completed 3 separate polls in Ontario (over the last 10 days) where the the combined sample size was over 4000 surveys completes with unique respondents.
Here were the combined results:
41 - PCs
28 - OLP
20 - ONDP
6 - OGRN
5 - Other Party
But, okay.... Fun times 🤔🤷 🎉🎊🙏
A reminder that @Polymarket had Elliott at 92% in the BC Conservative leadership race 24 hours before she lost
Being at a 77% chance as an incumbent, 4 months away from an election…is actually pretty bad…
The most important detail in this poll is the Mayoral approval among undecided voters
The undecided voters aren’t undecided, they are deciding who they want instead of Sutcliffe
Every year the budget goes up. Every year you get less for it.
You don't fix a leaky bucket by pouring in more water. You fix the bucket.
We've got a lot of work to do. Ottawa deserves better.
#ottawa
Ottawa, it's time for real change. I spoke with @helmera about why I'm running for Mayor as a builder, not a politician. This election is about quality of life. Getting around the city, affordable living, feeling safe, and value for your tax dollars. Read the full story: https://t.co/dxqQtrE2A0
It took over a year and an election for the city auditor to look at transit routes. People don’t care about transit plans. They care about getting where they need to go - and getting home - on time in Ottawa.