Pollitik

[Ryan E Carlin @RyanECarlin1]

Just out in @poqjournal! H/t to Philip Warncke, my amazing co-author & methods wiz. Thx to all those who engaged critically w/this work at any point, start to finish.

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

ELECTORAL ANALYSIS: COSTA RICA

https://t.co/5PJ28d4MjN

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

@bloggingsbyboz agrees w/our first-round projection but not w/our second-round projection per his S*bst@ck today. Fair enough! Let's pop some popcorn and watch this intriguing @LatAmerElection

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

New forecast report for upcoming elections in Colombia 🇨🇴 incl. fundamentals model, horse-race & prediction mrkts. 📈📉
Collab w/@USanSebastian's Laboratorio Democracia y Gobierno. #colombiadecide2026

[Austin @AuCl1776]

Some really great work I’ve had the opportunity to contribute to over the past couple months. Check it out!

[Executive Approval Project @ExecApproval]

Colombia's election is wide open. Compare prognostications via @PollitikLab S<bst@ck https://t.co/OtXJYyqnh9

[Ryan E Carlin @RyanECarlin1]

I've enjoyed a COIL "virtual exchange" pairing my @PollitikLab w/@kennethbunker's LabDemGob this spring! Full report here: https://t.co/iDqaMS8XzW

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

https://t.co/qO4xFnUzXp

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

New forecast report for upcoming elections in Colombia 🇨🇴 incl. fundamentals model, horse-race & prediction mrkts. 📈📉
Collab w/@USanSebastian's Laboratorio Democracia y Gobierno. #colombiadecide2026

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Happy to have supported this research!

[Executive Approval Project @ExecApproval]

🚨NEW ARTICLE FROM EAP 📉📊📈
First fruits of our Varieties of Crises project, which tries to unite disparate literatures on economic, security, public health & natural disaster criese. More to come!
https://t.co/7OORGXbtvx

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

The data is in: the #EpsteinFiles fallout is directly impacting executive approval ratings in the US and UK. What are your thoughts on the political instability? 🇺🇸🇬🇧
https://t.co/FI7eS0vi89

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Urime! Breaking trends, Kosovar Prime Minister @AlbinKurti has managed something special. Following a 2020 no-confidence vote and returning in 2021 has maintained strong approval ratings to become Kosovo’s most popular, and potentially longest-serving, PM since independence.

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

📊Approval of Orpo’s govt sits at a higher floor than pre-Covid govts, but it is still not as high as the Covid-fueled Marin govt 🇫🇮 💉😷
#Finland #COVID #Marin #Orpo #ApprovalRatings #RallyAroundTheFlag
@mkujanen

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Argentinian President Javier Milei's approval ratings rise following his party's, La Libertad Avanza, decisive victory in midterm elections. Could this victory be contributed to the peso stabilizing following the $40-billion bailout from President Trump? #Milei #40billionbailout

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Data shows that the most self-incriminating scandals don't compare to the weight of unpopular public policy. Johnson: COVID Parties (55% → 24%), Sunak: D-Day early exit, Truss: Policy proposal shock, Starmer: 2026 Policy Low (15%)
Public trust hits a historic floor. 🚨
#Starmer

[Executive Approval Project @ExecApproval]

Fascinating data, great questions. H/t Enya Wong @PollitikLab! Please follow the lab on this new acct.🙏

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Approval ratings for Hong Kong’s government has declined since 2019📉.First under Carrie Lam with protests and COVID😷, and now reaching a new low of 20.1% in 2025 under John Lee. What explains the decrease? Does Beijing’s backing play a role?🤔
#HongKong #China #JohnLeeCarrieLam

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

What keeps a president popular? Ask @luisabinader.
A dip, then a reelection honeymoon, to a normal rate of decay.
But the real headline: approval stayed unusually high for most of the term.
Strong economy
Anti-corruption rep
Honeymoons fade. Fundamentals last.
#RD #Ratings 📷

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

As Gabriel Boric wraps up his final year, how will his service as Chile’s youngest president be remembered? Addressing organized crime and electricity rates remained a challenge throughout his presidency.
#GabrielBoric #Chile #Actualidad

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Anthony Albanese’s approval has slipped from ~60% in early 2023 to the mid-40s by early 2026. Key political moments produced short bumps — but no lasting recovery. #AnthonyAlbanese #Albanese #AustralianPolitics #AusPol #ApprovalRatings #PoliticalData #Polling #PublicOpinion

[Pollitik @PollitikLab]

Event-driven shocks matter. Pakistan’s executive approval exhibits structural breaks in 2007 (Bhutto assassination) and 2022 (no-confidence vote), each followed by sharp and persistent declines.
#PakistanPolitics #ComparativePolitics #Democracy #BenazirBhutto #VoteOfNoConfidence