Polymarket Wire

Real-time alerts for significant probability shifts on Polymarket

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Probability: 16% to 22% (+6 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $2.1M

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar

Probability (Anna Bondar): 56% to 26% (-31 pts) over ~30 min

24hr volume: $268K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Probability: 80% to 86% (+5 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $2.2M

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia

Probability (Bangladesh): 66% to 55% (-12 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Probability: 38% to 53% (+15 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Probability: 4% to 11% (+7 pts) over ~1h

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability: 64% to 72% (+8 pts) over ~1h

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Who will win: Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics?

Probability (Athletics): 54% to 90% (+37 pts) over ~30 min

24hr volume: $650K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?

Probability: 33% to 15% (-18 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Who will win: Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals?

Probability (Houston Astros): 55% to 12% (-43 pts) over ~30 min

24hr volume: $269K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Who will win: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers?

Probability (Milwaukee Brewers): 46% to 26% (-20 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Probability: 20% to 8% (-11 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Probability: 42% to 53% (+12 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $667K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Probability: 74% to 66% (-8 pts) over ~1h

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Who will win: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals?

Probability (Washington Nationals): 52% to 82% (+30 pts) over ~30 min

24hr volume: $522K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: Who will win: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins?

Probability (St. Louis Cardinals): 52% to 96% (+45 pts) over ~30 min

24hr volume: $353K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Probability: 38% to 29% (-10 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $626K

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Probability: 48% to 38% (-10 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $1.7M

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

FAST MOVE: HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic

Probability (Iva Jovic): 46% to 26% (-21 pts) over ~30 min

[Polymarket Wire @PolymarketWire]

MOVE: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Probability: 52% to 58% (+6 pts) over ~1h

24hr volume: $4.8M