Tom Adams

Author of the book "Improving Your NCAA Bracket with Statistics"

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@infochartingho1 No. I use all the basic models, I use all the games of the season, except for when the Vegas spreads are used. Vegas is based on the betting markets that might weigh those, but it is impossible to know.

I sometimes make some injury adjustments, but I did not do that this year

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The final dataload is in. Good luck! #marchmadness #BigDance, #bracketology, #brackets, #NCAAbrackets, #NCAAbracket, #bracketpool

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The second dataload is in. Wednesday play-in games are still estimated.

#marchmadness #BigDance, #bracketology, #brackets, #NCAAbrackets, #NCAAbracket, #bracketpool

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The first dataload is in. #marchmadness #BigDance, #bracketology, #brackets, #NCAAbrackets, #NCAAbracket, #bracketpool

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@CevallosLaw @MSNBC On Monday's @waytooearly, you perhaps left out the mass pardons of Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Johnson of most of the Confederate army. But terms like clemency and amnesty were used in some cases. Wikipedia lists Andrew Johnson as giving the most pardons of all Presidents.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The probabilities are different just because I don't know his exact formula for calculating them.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

Some may have had a lock on being in the money after the Final Four if they used the Kenpomv model. That is the case for the Bloomberg Brackets for a Cause pool https://t.co/WPOua1VQeV. Many of the "titans from business and finance" are not good at bracket strategy.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

My Kenpom model was even better than Kenpomv this year. Note that the probabilities are a little different from KenPom's, see his here: https://t.co/KLswPRjuLZ

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

But if you live near Houston or Florida, then the homer bias might make them the most popular team in your pool. https://t.co/uhEveLAyE2

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

It was a good year for a contrarian champ. I hope you did not assume Duke was a contrarian pick since they were not in the upper left corner of the bracket. The Yahoo pool champ pick distribution and the Vegas champ odds are two ways to find the most popular team.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The Poologic Calculator is doing well in standard scoring pools this year. Perfect on the Elite Eight and Final Four.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

Final data load is up. Good luck!

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

Play-in games are estimated at this point.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The first data load is up. Play-n games are estimated

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

The first data load will probably not be until Monday this year. My source for quickly loading the bracket is no longer available, so it will take longer to get the data loaded.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@matteo_wong Nice article on Stargate. Please say more about MGX, the relatively silent partner may be the biggest funder of Stargate.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@SimoneHCollins @jennykleeman Look at Ross Greene's CPS for kids over 4. It's more cognitive and less behavior-mod than Kazdin. It also performs well in randomized controlled trials.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@SimoneHCollins @jennykleeman Larzelere thinks reasoning is a disciplinary method, but it's positive reinforcement for bad behavior. So, you will be beating your kid for the bad behavior that you caused. Use Alan Kazdin's parenting books or Coursera course instead. Larezelere is appallingly ignorant.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@SimoneHCollins @jennykleeman Your only scientific source (Larzelere) describes slapping in the face as "overly severe corporal punishment" https://t.co/R7de2fizgW
Larzelere only supports customary spanking as a backup for milder methods like time out.

[Tom Adams @Poologic]

@SimoneHCollins @jennykleeman Lots of stuff that you would never do is rooted in cultural practices. Sus.
Make an effort to master the low-effort parenting that scientists have discovered, documented, and verified via randomized controlled trials and other measurements.