Macro point of view

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

🇮🇷 🇺🇸Trump & Pezeshkian just signed the Iran peace deal. Hormuz reopens, sanctions ⏸️ but demining alone could take 50 days, one Gulf gas terminal isn't fixed until '32. My beakdown on oil, OPEC, IEA's 2027 surplus call & Equinor's bigger buyback:
▶️ https://t.co/GOYZ3jDUs3 ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

Peace in the Middle East looks closer than at any point since Feb 28.
Brent's heading toward closing the gap that opened in March: pre-war levels under $72/🛢️

I'd be careful chasing it: the US announced a 200m-barrel SPR rebuild by 2027.

What do you think?

#ChartOfTheDay

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(2/2) Full breakdown:⬇️
▶️ https://t.co/68AyzHsMeQ ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(1/2) 9 central banks. 4 days. 1 new #Fed Chair.
Just mapped out the full timetable: #BoJ, Fed (#Warsh's first meeting), #BoE, #CBR and more...
Plus why the same #Middle #East #peace talks are pulling these banks in opposite directions.

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(2/2) read full article for free🆓 on Substack:⬇️
▶️ https://t.co/zofFqt4byJ ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(1/2)🛢️☮️Brent just dropped ~5% on the new US-Iran peace memorandum, lowest since March 10.

Good news?
Israel didn't sign it, and Iran just proved it can shut the Strait of Hormuz on demand.

My take on oil, gold, the Fed & grains this week in the comment:👇️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

When peace is signed in the Gulf, don't expect a market reset. 📉

Extinguished inventories (-20% in 2 mn) & US SPR at a '84 low mean energy prices stay up. And a structural 0.5% inflation tax is now baked in. The final part of my series is LIVE:
▶️ https://t.co/hM9B2XqdCx ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

Paper crude markets are deadlocked, but physical assets are screaming. OPEC output hits a multi-decade low (16.13M bpd), while weekly US commercial stocks + SPR plunge again. Brent remains tightly coiled inside a key Fibonacci window. Full macro brief:👇️
https://t.co/4pvSVscaoV

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

read now:
▶️ https://t.co/N76UBq2yty ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

The market is high on ceasefire headlines, but physical oil metrics are flashing red. Weekly US crude stocks + SPR suffered a brutal 16M barrel draw. Vitol warns: the street is underpricing the Iran war and a physical molecule crunch is coming. Full analysis & charts 👇

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

Metal markets are in a structural squeeze. Goldman lifts copper target to $13,735, Citi eyes $15K. Huge for KGHM. Middle East friction & El Niño threaten an ag crunch, pushing food crops to biofuels.

Full macro breakdown + a look at the Warsh Fed:👇
https://t.co/e8I1TVLPuK

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(2/2) Meanwhile, Middle East friction & El Niño threaten an ag crunch, pushing food crops to biofuels. Full macro breakdown + a look at the Warsh Fed: 🧵👇 https://t.co/wSvWRgCLBN

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(1/2) Metal markets are in a structural squeeze. Goldman lifts copper target to $13,735, Citi eyes $15K. Huge for KGHM.

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

check here: ▶️ https://t.co/VunFJRCjFs ◀️

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

Wall Street trades on fake peace hopes, but crude oil is a ticking time bomb. Inside my latest macro brief:
• Secret $150k Ormuz transit tolls
• Historic SPR draw for California
• Corporate chaos at BP
• 6B PLN windfall tax threat for Orlen

Link in the next tweet! 👇

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

But beware: not all defense-related stocks are a blind buy.
Transactional windfalls for shipping and trade intermediaries will cool down as peace terms are negotiated. The real race is fixing the $5 deficit.

Read the full deep dive with data on MacroPov:
https://t.co/p0afxLo5K5

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(1/7)
We just witnessed the definitive end of an era in military strategy.

The Q1 2026 economic data reveals a terrifying mathematical trap inside G20 defense budgets.

It’s called the "$5 Deficit," and it’s rewriting global macro trends. 🧵 👇

[Macro point of view @PovMacro]

(7/7) For macro-investors, capital is already flowing. Look at the expanding order books for the secular trend:
• Lockheed Martin ($LMT) & Rheinmetall ($RHM)
• Hanwha Aerospace
• Rafael Advanced Defense Systems
• Thales Group ($HO)