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@KobeissiLetter The issue is quite simple: if one truly wants to negotiate, they will not deploy additional troops at the same time;
if one truly intends to deploy more troops, they will not continue negotiating.
At times like this, two types of people are most likely to emerge: one type chases highs and sells lows every day to earn a little pocket money, while the other fails to keep up with the pace and gets left behind entirely.
One thing is spot-on — rebounds in a downward trend are often weak, which is why those who claim "it's already bottomed out, get in quickly" end up losing everything.
Liquidity seems to have returned now, but no one is asking one question:
is this rebound due to improved fundamentals, or is it just a dead cat bounce after the "stock-bond double whammy"?
Gold's current rebound has indeed been rapid, but a fast rebound does not equal accurate forecasting.
No one dared to buy when it was falling earlier, yet now that it has rebounded, people start claiming "I saw this coming long ago"—this is the most common occurrence in the market.
@KobeissiLetter To put it bluntly, words can't control the bond market, but the bond market can dictate policy—soaring oil prices, spiking interest rates, and mortgage rates jumping to seven percent are what really make Trump restless.
@TedPillows To put it simply, BlackRock is not stupid. It knows that what ETH lacks at its current price is a reason.
Rather than waiting for it to rise, it is better to attract institutions with yields first.
Macro bears have been winning easily for so long that no one is following them anymore; they exit automatically as soon as prices move up, which shows the market never bought into that narrative at all.
Whether a genuine new high can be forged will ultimately depend on whether the market can shake off the impulsive long positions and hold that line.
Actually, there are no real safe-haven assets anymore.
The best way to protect yourself right now is "cash + a time horizon" — if you have a time frame of more than 5 years, any asset at its bottom is an opportunity;
but if you need liquid funds within a year, you should just wait patiently — wait for the Fed to change its stance, wait for oil prices to stabilize, and wait for the concentration of power to disperse.
@coingecko As long as that 48.5% doesn't crash, it can theoretically hold.
But once it does, how fast will the remaining 51.5% plummet from $2.64 to $0.5? No one dares to say.
@MerlijnTrader Failing to hold above $70K is indeed a signal, but this signal does not mean an "inevitable drop"—rather, it indicates that "the macroeconomy has not yet recovered," which is the real determining factor.
@TedPillows With such a drop, either there will be a turnaround within 24 hours, or the full impact of this "energy war" will only be truly priced in after the deadline expires tonight.
South Korea's sharpest drop of -5.92% makes it clear: these positions dare not take the gamble.
@TedPillows The probability of breaking below $2,000 depends on whether the macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, not on whether there are "patterns" in the technical aspects.
@honey_xbt $2,600 is not something that comes easily; it is a level that requires accumulated momentum and macroeconomic support to truly hold firm.
The next key focus is Fed Chair Powell's press conference next week, which will be the moment that truly sets the tone.