Pratik Karmakar

Portfolio Manager, East Green Quant PMS | Rules-based. Follow for data backed market insights.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

2 years ago we launched a fully systematic PMS. This period was a testing ground for equities. Markets fell, recovered, drifted.

Returns came from equity selection and rotation in gold/silver/foreign ETFs/cash.

1Y: 33.2%;SI CAGR: 9.1%

Detailed strategy doc available on request

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

Miles to go before we accept that low labour cost is not a flex.

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

We built Delhi metro -271 stations with 8 million daily riders ( amongst top 10 globally) for just $8Bn

Our moon mission costed us just $75 Million

Built Largest biometric system in world for 1.4 Bn people -aadhar built with just $1bn

Worlds tallest railway bridge Chenab for $175 Mn

Codeveloped BrahMos missile-unique in the global arms market, combining a high top speed (Mach3)multi-platform launch versatility (air, ship, sub, land), and supersonic cruising, which sets it apart from both legacy subsonic cruise missiles and newer, more expensive hypersonic weapons for $4 million.

Our precision engineering, technology usage and frugality is unmatched.

Foreign media & brokerages claiming India has no technology, precision engineering play are biased and spreading propaganda…

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

Full article: https://t.co/mrnCoP4tS2

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

Stop looking for unbiased financial advice.

It doesn't exist. Never has.

Start asking whose bias runs in your direction.

That one question knocks out almost everything sold on commission and forces an honest look at the structures that survive.

Full breakdown in next tweet ↓

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

Metros don't make any sense over long distances and from centre to suburbs. Trains with spaced out stops can only compete with cars on the highway. Even the airport metro will have poor ridership because the time taken by metro to reach the airport would be similar to a car, door to door.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

@zhr_jafri It does change the fact because AIFF does not allow OCI to play for India.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

India's largest listed optical fibre cable maker out-returned US listed memory stocks as well as Samsung and SK Hynix this year. Today, it is falling with them, while the Nifty is down only 1%.

Contrary to narrative, India has a few AI proxies which have run up 100 to 450% in a few months: fibre, power and grid equipment, electronics. They run on hyperscaler orders and the same capex narrative that prices global chip makers. Kind of Indian listed global AI betas.

Friday's Broadcom guidance took the Philadelphia chip index (SOX) down 10%. Today, Korea halted trading at -8%. The Nifty holds no chips, so it fell less. The Indian AI names are not priced by the Nifty, but are correlated with global moves.

What ran on the global AI capex cycle also falls with it, which started on Friday.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

The cultural reason is stronger than the financial or bureaucratic reason for low risk taking, although all contribute. USA never had cheap capital all the time in the past century but always had risk takers and a regulatory structure to back it up. Same for Europe since the industrial revolution. Also, R&D investments are a function of margin as well which comes from pathbreaking products with high demand after R&D, which again sets the flywheel in motion.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

The hand that caps India's speed, caps its catastrophe as well.

The Nifty isn't the India growth story. It's the India stability story wearing the growth story's clothes.

Want the explosive, growth version of Nifty? It moved down to the smaller names. You might pay in volatility though.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/mzBljIQLAm

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

Last week, Samsung and SK Hynix became worth more than half of Korea's entire stock market. TSMC, on its own, made Taiwan's market bigger than India's.

Indian economy is much large than Korea or Taiwan. But then what is going wrong with Nifty?

🧵

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

The fragility is live. On Korea's record-breaking day this month, the KOSPI hit an ATH while 826 of 920 stocks fell. Only 77 advanced.

Index and real market have come apart. Two names carrying everything.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

So, banks cannot melt-up the way a semiconductor index does. But should 35% in banks should worry you?

Enter the RBI.

Its main tool: risk weights. Raise them on overheating loans → banks have to hold more capital → lending gets less profitable → segment cools. It did exactly this to personal loans and NBFC exposure in Nov 2023.

[Pratik Karmakar @PratKar]

@vpj25 @pvsubramanyam Some ideas on how to select a fund, but by no means exhaustive - https://t.co/0xuuZfdkFi