PredictionEdge

The smarter way to follow elections.

Insights/tools to help you trade and win on the 2026 midterms

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

FINAL LOS ANGELES MAYOR POLL

🔵 Karen Bass 26%
🔵 Nithya Raman 25%
🔴 Spencer Pratt 22%
🔵 Rae Huang 9%
🔵 Adam Miller 5%
Other/Undecided 13%

Source: UC Berkeley–Los Angeles Times Poll

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

California Governor Update

70% reporting, per DDHQ:

🔵 Xavier Becerra - 1,732,755 (26.78%)
🔴 Steve Hilton - 1,704,821 (26.35%)
🔵 Tom Steyer - 1,361,549 (21.04%)

If late ballots continue following recent trends, Hilton holds a slight edge for the second advancing spot.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Xavier Becerra has secured a spot in November. The focus now shifts to whether late ballots from Democratic regions can lift Tom Steyer past Steve Hilton for the second advancing position.

Steyer's odds to advance have climbed to 38%, up from 20% just two days ago.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

California Governor Primary update

Est. 60% reporting, per AP:

🔴 Steve Hilton - 1,536,810 (27.2%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra - 1,471,461 (26.0%)
🔵 Tom Steyer - 1,140,799 (20.2%)
🔴 Chad Bianco - 631,042 (11.2%)

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

LOS ANGELES MAYOR UPDATE: As more late ballots are counted, Spencer Pratt's path to advancing continues to narrow. Prediction markets now give Nithya Raman a 79% chance to advance, while Pratt has fallen to 23%.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

The California Governor's race could become much clearer after today’s expected vote updates. Becerra's opponent remains uncertain, with more ballots still being counted.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

CA Gov Friday Reporting Expectations

Today will likely being the biggest day of counting of the trail. We expect vote updates from roughly 35–40 of California's 58 counties today, including most of the state's largest population centers.

6 PM
Tulare

7 PM
Alameda (first drop since 6/2)
Contra Costa (first drop since 6/2)
San Bernardino
San Francisco

715 PM
Sacramento (first drop since 6/2)
Los Angeles

730 PM
Nevada (first drop since 6/2)
San Mateo

8 PM
Merced (first drop since 6/2)
Monterey (first drop since 6/2)
Napa
Orange
Placer (first drop since 6/2)
Santa Clara

9 PM
Riverside
San Diego
San Luis Obispo

10 PM
San Joaquin (first drop since 6/2)

All times in Eastern and approximate.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Maine Senate poll

🔴 Collins: 46%
🔵 Platner: 46%

(Fabrizio)

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Our latest podcast breaks down the launch of Prediction Edge, how the platform works, and the data and insights powering election forecasts.

[Prediction News @PredictionNews_]

A new episode of Prediction Market Movers is live! @the_ed_silva sits down with @GerlacherC to discuss:

- Ed's decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry

- Prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signals in increasingly complex markets

- The future of Prediction Edge and how it aims to help traders make sense of elections through data-driven insights https://t.co/Rj0niIRgfy

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

BREAKING: Tom Steyer's odds of advancing in California's Governor primary have risen to 47% on prediction markets after a strong performance from late ballots.

Xavier Becerra's opponent remains uncertain as the race for the second spot could take weeks to settle.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Los Angeles Mayor Primary Update

Est. 66% of the vote reporting, per AP:

Karen Bass - 195,449 (35.1%) ✅
Spencer Pratt - 163,549 (29.4%)
Nithya Raman - 130,473 (23.4%)

Pratt maintains a 6-point lead over Raman

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Los Angeles Mayor Primary Update

Est. 62% of the vote reporting, per DDHQ:

Karen Bass - 183,701 (34.97%)
Spencer Pratt - 157,116 (29.91%)
Nithya Raman - 119,809 (22.81%)

More votes are expected to be reported within the next hour

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

California Governor Primary Update

Est. 57% of the vote reporting, per DDHQ:

🔴 Steve Hilton (R) 1,438,086 (27.5%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra (D) 1,344,448 (25.7%)
🔵 Tom Steyer (D) 1,037,049 (19.8%)

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

UPDATE: Spencer Pratt's chances of advancing in the Los Angeles mayoral race have fallen to 37% on prediction markets, while Nithya Raman is now favored to claim the remaining spot in the general election.

[Prediction News @PredictionNews_]

A new episode of Prediction Market Movers is live! @the_ed_silva sits down with @GerlacherC to discuss:

- Ed's decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry

- Prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signals in increasingly complex markets

- The future of Prediction Edge and how it aims to help traders make sense of elections through data-driven insights https://t.co/Rj0niIRgfy

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

NEW: President Trump claims Democrats are trying to “steal” the California governor and Los Angeles mayor primaries as additional mail-in ballots are counted.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

Los Angeles Mayor update

Est. 62% reporting per AP

🔵 Karen Bass (Inc.) 183,701 (35.0%)
🔴 Spencer Pratt 157,116 (29.9%)
🔵 Nithya Raman 119,809 (22.8%)

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

BREAKING: President Trump will reportedly nominate Todd Blanche to serve as the next U.S. Attorney General.

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

California Governor

Los Angeles County

(Est. 62% reporting per NYT)

🔵 Xavier Becerra - 390,154 (29%)
🔴 Steve Hilton - 304,890 (23%)
🔵 Tom Steyer - 302,610 (23%)
🔴 Chad Bianco - 97,640 (7%)

[PredictionEdge @PredictionEdge]

2026 California Governor results:

Est. 58% reporting, per DDHQ

🔴 Steve Hilton 1,400,218 (27.6%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra 1,293,809 (25.5%)
🔵 Tom Steyer (D) 1,001,290 (19.7%)
🔴 Chad Bianco (R) 570,482 (11.3%)