This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

E229: Web browser battle is heating up between Chrome, Perplexity, OpenAI?; Groq is a monster, love the company; Underwriting private market humanoid robotic stocks

00:01 – Web browser battle is heating up between Chrome, Perplexity, OpenAI?
Advancements in AI are driving significant integrations into web browsers, with companies like Google, OpenAI, and Perplexity. There is clear line of site to web browser solutions to capture and utilize data from user activities, including always-on screen recording for employee training and process optimization … aka “personal context”. This trend extends to wearable devices like phones, watches, and glasses that continuously monitor and record user interactions, raising concerns about diminishing data privacy and the emergence of a surveillance state driven by the high value of data for AI development. Enterprise-focused AI applications are more viable due to standardized workflows and easier data collection. Personal AI assistants face challenges in addressing diverse, individualized needs … so there is high potential we’ll see AI App Marketplaces similar to the Apple App Store designed for personal use in the future.

18:59 – Groq is a monster, love the company
Groq raised $750 million in a funding round, achieving a $6.9 billion post-money valuation, which has since increased to $8.1 billion in the secondary market. Investors include Blackrock, Neuberger Berman, and Deutsche Telekom. With 2 million developers using Groq Cloud, the company is experiencing rapid growth and is seen as a leader in the AI inference infrastructure space. The round was at a 13.8x revenue multiple … which some consider low for its potential. There are significant infrastructure bottlenecks (data center construction, access to electricity) and Groq’s low electricity solutions address that issue head on. The company is positioned as a diversifier for investors seeking investments in semiconductors (e.g. Nvidia), with a strong potential for significant returns due to its strategic importance in enabling AI-driven productivity advancements.

24:07 – Underwriting private market humanoid robotic stocks
Figure, a humanoid robotics company, closed $1 billion raise at a $39 billion post-money valuation. Investors included Brookfield Asset Management, Nvidia, and Intel Capital. The company is trading at a discount in the secondary market. Humanoid robotics is viewed as an emerging asset class with companies like 1X, Clone Robotics, and Apptronik, addressing global demographic crises, population decline, and labor shortages. Other applications may include elder care, childcare, surgery, military operations with AI-controlled drones and robots, and household tasks … where robots could offer perfect performance, constant monitoring, and cost savings compared to human alternatives. Skepticism arises from high valuations for capital-intensive hardware, slow adoption timelines, the need for scalable use cases and monetization. Competition from non-humanoid technologies like smart homes or purpose-built robots could also present themselves. Humanoid robotic CEOs predict billions of robots on the planet in 10 to 15 years time that will drive economic productivity. We discuss futuristic ideas like rental robots and robot dogs for security. The underwriting for humanoid robotics companies is certainly long term with 2025 investors standing to win big if the “billions of robots on the planet” predictions play out.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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Will AI/robotics yield a decade long bull market? | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/lr1UmSkamI
Technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, are driving a potential decade-long bull market by fostering a resurgence of high-end manufacturing and trade jobs in the United States. 500,000+ skilled workers, like electricians, will be required to support sophisticated automation systems. These developments, combined with megatrends like globalization, are expected to bolster the private sector, creating a robust middle class by uplifting the bottom 50 to 90% of earners through well-paying trade and manufacturing roles. AI is disrupting high-income white-collar professions like financial advisors, lawyers, and accountants. This convergence of technology and labor is seen as an opportunity to bring manufacturing back to the US, supported by government funding, and presents significant investment opportunities in a tech-driven economy poised for exponential growth.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

OpenAI + Microsoft work out non-profit to for-profit switch | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/lr1UmSkamI
OpenAI and Microsoft have tentatively reached an agreement to transition OpenAI from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure, pending regulatory approval. This will simplify its capital table and enable raising substantial capital, potentially up to $1 trillion, to scale its mission of advancing AI for public benefit. This shift is expected to attract significantly more investors, with an estimated 25% increase in demand from private and institutional investors like pension funds, who were previously hesitant due to the complex nonprofit-for-profit structure. The move to a standard corporate structure could facilitate OpenAI going public, similar to other tech firms, to leverage debt for financing data centers and other infrastructure, enhancing its ability to compete in the AI market while maintaining its mission-driven focus.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

Anduril wins $1.26b of new deals | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/lr1UmSkIcg
Anduril has secured $1.26 billion in new contracts, including a $1.1 billion deal with the Australian Navy for an underwater autonomous submarine and a contract with the US Army for AI-driven night vision and augmented reality helmet technology. Anduril is poised to capture significant market share globally by leveraging AI and technological innovation. This aligns with key macro trends … deglobalization, AI-driven disruption, and fiscal dominance through increased military spending. Anduril may export advanced defense solutions, protect regional trade partnerships, and support the US's position as a global superpower and reserve currency holder, with significant upside potential if it continues to execute effectively. Traditional defense primes have market caps between $50 billion and $200 billion. Where could Anduril settle in 3 to 5 years’ time? Current secondary market valuation is $51 billion. Base-case projection is 3x growth in three years, $150 billion with potential massive upside.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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SpaceX to enter the cell service business | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/lr1UmSkIcg
SpaceX has entered the cell phone connectivity market through a $17 billion deal with EchoStar to acquire bandwidth for satellite-to-cell phone services. The new satellite-to-cell venture aims to provide direct cellular service, potentially competing with carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile while also serving as a carrier overlay, leveraging the 8,000 Starlink satellites to connect underserved and rural areas globally. With mobile data usage surging 35% year-over-year to 132.5 trillion megabytes, this scalable infrastructure could unlock multiple revenue streams, positioning SpaceX as a diversified platform in space logistics and connectivity. The deal is still pending FCC approval. Starlink wifi internet service is also rapidly expanding in regions like Africa, South America, and Asia.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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E228: SpaceX to enter the cell service business; Anduril wins $1.26b of new deals; OpenAI + Microsoft work out non-profit to for-profit switch; Will AI/robotics yield a decade long bull market?

00:02 - SpaceX to enter the cell service business
SpaceX has entered the cell phone connectivity market through a $17 billion deal with EchoStar to acquire bandwidth for satellite-to-cell phone services. The new satellite-to-cell venture aims to provide direct cellular service, potentially competing with carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile while also serving as a carrier overlay, leveraging the 8,000 Starlink satellites to connect underserved and rural areas globally. With mobile data usage surging 35% year-over-year to 132.5 trillion megabytes, this scalable infrastructure could unlock multiple revenue streams, positioning SpaceX as a diversified platform in space logistics and connectivity. The deal is still pending FCC approval. Starlink wifi internet service is also rapidly expanding in regions like Africa, South America, and Asia.

04:26 - Anduril wins $1.26b of new deals
Anduril has secured $1.26 billion in new contracts, including a $1.1 billion deal with the Australian Navy for an underwater autonomous submarine and a contract with the US Army for AI-driven night vision and augmented reality helmet technology. Anduril is poised to capture significant market share globally by leveraging AI and technological innovation. This aligns with key macro trends … deglobalization, AI-driven disruption, and fiscal dominance through increased military spending. Anduril may export advanced defense solutions, protect regional trade partnerships, and support the US's position as a global superpower and reserve currency holder, with significant upside potential if it continues to execute effectively. Traditional defense primes have market caps between $50 billion and $200 billion. Where could Anduril settle in 3 to 5 years’ time? Current secondary market valuation is $51 billion. Base-case projection is 3x growth in three years, $150 billion with potential massive upside.

12:43 - OpenAI + Microsoft work out non-profit to for-profit switch
OpenAI and Microsoft have tentatively reached an agreement to transition OpenAI from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure, pending regulatory approval. This will simplify its capital table and enable raising substantial capital, potentially up to $1 trillion, to scale its mission of advancing AI for public benefit. This shift is expected to attract significantly more investors, with an estimated 25% increase in demand from private and institutional investors like pension funds, who were previously hesitant due to the complex nonprofit-for-profit structure. The move to a standard corporate structure could facilitate OpenAI going public, similar to other tech firms, to leverage debt for financing data centers and other infrastructure, enhancing its ability to compete in the AI market while maintaining its mission-driven focus.

17:33 - Will AI/robotics yield a decade long bull market?
Technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, are driving a potential decade-long bull market by fostering a resurgence of high-end manufacturing and trade jobs in the United States. 500,000+ skilled workers, like electricians, will be required to support sophisticated automation systems. These developments, combined with megatrends like globalization, are expected to bolster the private sector, creating a robust middle class by uplifting the bottom 50 to 90% of earners through well-paying trade and manufacturing roles. AI is disrupting high-income white-collar professions like financial advisors, lawyers, and accountants. This convergence of technology and labor is seen as an opportunity to bring manufacturing back to the US, supported by government funding, and presents significant investment opportunities in a tech-driven economy poised for exponential growth.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

AI App investment cases; Sierra AI Agents and OpenEvidence | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/0IkaMosjDD
Two AI companies, Sierra and OpenEvidence, highlight contrasting approaches in the AI application space. Sierra has a $10 billion valuation and offers AI customer service agents on top of existing models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta. The company leverages a consultative implementation approach with major brands. OpenEvidence, valued at $6 billion, develops its own large language models tailored for medical use, capturing 40% of U.S. doctors as users. Sierra’s model relies on enterprise sales and client-specific solutions, potentially creating a moat through deep integration with client workflows. OpenEvidence’s strength lies in its proprietary models trained on focused medical data, offering a defensible moat through specialization and operational efficiency in healthcare settings. Proprietary data and tailored models provide a stronger competitive edge over building on third-party platforms, as the latter risks disruption by larger players. AI Apps are seen as having significant potential, particularly in specialized fields. Could AI Apps be the next big investment opportunity in the pre-IPO market?

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

Revolut $75b valuation after 72% yoy revenue growth, 35 million customers | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/0IkaMorLO5
Revolut, a fintech company primarily operating online bank accounts in Europe with a presence in the United States, has notched a $75 billion valuation. The company 35% year-over-year growth and 35 million active customers. It generated $4 billion in revenue in 2024, a 72% increase from the previous year, with forecasts of $5.9 billion in 2025 and $9.3 billion in 2026. This is a 12.7x revenue multiple based on 2025F revenue. To maintain liquidity while staying private, the company has implemented structured tender offers, allowing employees and early investors to sell shares, a strategy increasingly adopted by large private firms to provide liquidity to employees and early investors without pursuing an IPO. This approach is seen as beneficial for employee retention and investor confidence, though it may pose challenges in maintaining control and ensuring long-term revenue growth amidst competition and potential talent drain.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

E226: Revolut $75b valuation after 72% yoy revenue growth, 35 million customers; AI App investment cases - Sierra AI Agents and OpenEvidence

00:11 - Revolut $75b valuation after 72% yoy revenue growth, 35 million customers
Revolut, a fintech company primarily operating online bank accounts in Europe with a presence in the United States, has notched a $75 billion valuation. The company 35% year-over-year growth and 35 million active customers. It generated $4 billion in revenue in 2024, a 72% increase from the previous year, with forecasts of $5.9 billion in 2025 and $9.3 billion in 2026. This is a 12.7x revenue multiple based on 2025F revenue. To maintain liquidity while staying private, the company has implemented structured tender offers, allowing employees and early investors to sell shares, a strategy increasingly adopted by large private firms to provide liquidity to employees and early investors without pursuing an IPO. This approach is seen as beneficial for employee retention and investor confidence, though it may pose challenges in maintaining control and ensuring long-term revenue growth amidst competition and potential talent drain.

11:09 - AI App investment cases; Sierra AI Agents and OpenEvidence
Two AI companies, Sierra and OpenEvidence, highlight contrasting approaches in the AI application space. Sierra has a $10 billion valuation and offers AI customer service agents on top of existing models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta. The company leverages a consultative implementation approach with major brands. OpenEvidence, valued at $6 billion, develops its own large language models tailored for medical use, capturing 40% of U.S. doctors as users. Sierra’s model relies on enterprise sales and client-specific solutions, potentially creating a moat through deep integration with client workflows. OpenEvidence’s strength lies in its proprietary models trained on focused medical data, offering a defensible moat through specialization and operational efficiency in healthcare settings. Proprietary data and tailored models provide a stronger competitive edge over building on third-party platforms, as the latter risks disruption by larger players. AI Apps are seen as having significant potential, particularly in specialized fields. Could AI Apps be the next big investment opportunity in the pre-IPO market?

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

Eight Sleep Raises $100m at $1.5b | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/1q3UXXf7mJ
Eight Sleep, a company offering a temperature-controlled mattress and blanket system with AI-driven sleep optimization, raised $100 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, reflecting strong investor interest in health and longevity products. The product, which includes a bedside device to regulate sleep conditions, targets a growing market of biohackers and health-conscious consumers seeking better sleep quality through data-driven solutions. With a user base of half a million and a price range of $3,000 to $4,900, the product appeals to those prioritizing sleep optimization, particularly for couples with differing temperature preferences. Compared to wearables like Whoop or Oura Ring, Eight Sleep provides a proactive feedback loop by actively adjusting conditions to improve sleep, aligning with broader trends in health data tracking and AI integration for personalized wellness solutions.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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Canva Launches Tender at $42b Valuation | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/1q3UXXf7mJ
Canva, a graphic design platform increasingly integrating AI, conducted a tender offer at a $42 billion valuation, closely aligning with its pre-announcement secondary market valuation of $40.6 billion. The tender round includes cornerstone investors like Fidelity and JP Morgan. The company, primarily a SaaS business, reported $2.5 billion in 2024 revenue with 50% year-over-year growth and serves 200 million monthly active users, including 90% of Fortune 500 companies … its freemium model raises questions about the depth of paid engagement. While its large user base and strong brand position it as a potential AI play with significant distribution advantages for everyday users seeking simple, generative AI-driven design solutions, concerns remain about long-term growth sustainability and competitive headwinds in an AI-driven market, particularly as the user interface for AI interaction evolves and competitors leverage generative AI. Employees may find the current valuation attractive for cashing out, but the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and justify the valuation in a potential IPO remains uncertain as it transitions to an AI-first approach.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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Databricks Targets $100b in New Round | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/1q3UXXfFch
Databricks, an AI infrastructure company, is raising $1 billion at a $100 billion valuation, a significant increase from its $81.6 billion secondary market valuation. Thrive, Insight Partners, and a16z are investing. The company, boasting over 10,000 customers and high retention, is growing faster than its competitor Snowflake, with a revenue multiple of 24x compared to Snowflake’s 18x. Despite its strong performance and a valuation 30% higher than Snowflake, the $1 billion raise is relatively small, suggesting it may be a strategic move to establish a clear valuation benchmark or reposition the cap table for a potential IPO. While the company has been considering going public since 2021/2022, the current IPO window and recent success of similar AI infrastructure companies like CoreWeave indicate it could be an opportune time. However, staying private allows flexibility for heavy capital expenditure without public scrutiny. The secondary market shows a wide bid-offer spread, reflecting mixed investor sentiment, with some offers at a discount to the $100 billion valuation, possibly indicating a strategic play for investor bragging rights or portfolio markup.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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E223: Databricks targets $100b in new round; Canva launches tender at $42b valuation; Eight Sleep raises $100m at $1.5b

00:08 - Databricks Targets $100b in New Round
Databricks, an AI infrastructure company, is raising $1 billion at a $100 billion valuation, a significant increase from its $81.6 billion secondary market valuation. Thrive, Insight Partners, and a16z are investing. The company, boasting over 10,000 customers and high retention, is growing faster than its competitor Snowflake, with a revenue multiple of 24x compared to Snowflake’s 18x. Despite its strong performance and a valuation 30% higher than Snowflake, the $1 billion raise is relatively small, suggesting it may be a strategic move to establish a clear valuation benchmark or reposition the cap table for a potential IPO. While the company has been considering going public since 2021/2022, the current IPO window and recent success of similar AI infrastructure companies like CoreWeave indicate it could be an opportune time. However, staying private allows flexibility for heavy capital expenditure without public scrutiny. The secondary market shows a wide bid-offer spread, reflecting mixed investor sentiment, with some offers at a discount to the $100 billion valuation, possibly indicating a strategic play for investor bragging rights or portfolio markup.

08:42 - Canva Launches Tender at $42b Valuation
Canva, a graphic design platform increasingly integrating AI, conducted a tender offer at a $42 billion valuation, closely aligning with its pre-announcement secondary market valuation of $40.6 billion. The tender round includes cornerstone investors like Fidelity and JP Morgan. The company, primarily a SaaS business, reported $2.5 billion in 2024 revenue with 50% year-over-year growth and serves 200 million monthly active users, including 90% of Fortune 500 companies … its freemium model raises questions about the depth of paid engagement. While its large user base and strong brand position it as a potential AI play with significant distribution advantages for everyday users seeking simple, generative AI-driven design solutions, concerns remain about long-term growth sustainability and competitive headwinds in an AI-driven market, particularly as the user interface for AI interaction evolves and competitors leverage generative AI. Employees may find the current valuation attractive for cashing out, but the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and justify the valuation in a potential IPO remains uncertain as it transitions to an AI-first approach.

15:27 - Eight Sleep Raises $100m at $1.5b
Eight Sleep, a company offering a temperature-controlled mattress and blanket system with AI-driven sleep optimization, raised $100 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, reflecting strong investor interest in health and longevity products. The product, which includes a bedside device to regulate sleep conditions, targets a growing market of biohackers and health-conscious consumers seeking better sleep quality through data-driven solutions. With a user base of half a million and a price range of $3,000 to $4,900, the product appeals to those prioritizing sleep optimization, particularly for couples with differing temperature preferences. Compared to wearables like Whoop or Oura Ring, Eight Sleep provides a proactive feedback loop by actively adjusting conditions to improve sleep, aligning with broader trends in health data tracking and AI integration for personalized wellness solutions.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

[This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks Podcasts @PreIPOStocks]

n8n Raises at $2.3b Pre-Money | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/Lo6j1tgY5o
n8n, an AI agent workflow application, facilitate the seamless connection of software solutions to automate tasks. The company experienced significant growth from a $350 million valuation four months ago to a $2.3 billion valuation in a new round led by Accel. n8n has 50,000 customers including Siemens and generated over $40 million in recurring revenue as of Q2 2025. The appeal lies in their ability to assist non-coders in creating tailored workflows. However, general-purpose agents may lack the effectiveness of specialized ones trained for specific tasks like marketing or sales, which benefit from pre-existing knowledge and adapt to personal context over time. AI agent workflows have the potential to reduce 7 hour weekly research task by half or a third using solutions like n8n, for example. This type of AI agent solution opens the potential for AI to enable single-person companies to reach $1 billion valuations by automating business functions.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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Cohere Raises at $6.8b Valuation | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/Lo6j1tgY5o
Cohere … a smaller Canadian large language model business competing with OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI … raised $500 million at a $6.8 billion post-money valuation. The company has a distinct B2B-focused approach. The secondary market valuation stands at $4.4 billion, a discount from the prior $5.5 billion round, offering a potentially attractive entry point if the market adjusts upward to the new round price. Cohere is down 5% in the secondary market over the last year while competitors OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity saw returns of 170%, 344%, and 253% respectively. The company projects revenue growth from $70 million to $200 million by year-end, leveraging a secure, closed ecosystem tailored for B2B.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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OpenAI Tender Eyes $500b Valuation | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/Lo6j1tgY5o
A recent tender announcement valued OpenAI at $500 billion, a 66% increase from its $300 billion valuation earlier this year. The tender will be $6 billion and is rumored to be led by Thrive Capital (…Softbank, Dragoneer to participate as well). OpenAI projects an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $20 billion by December 2025, implying a 25x forward revenue multiple, up from a $150 billion valuation a year and a half to two years ago. Current ARR is $10 billion so the $20 billion Dec 2025 target would be a +100% in 6 months time. A tender offer allows existing shareholder exits or partial sales. OpenAI has forecasted 2029 revenue at $127 billion, 6x their $20 billion Dec 2025 forecast and 12x current ARR (note 2029 is only 4 years from now). This would easily put the company at a $1 trillion valuation or more.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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E221: OpenAI $500b tender valuation; Cohere raises at $6b valuation; n8n raises at $2.3b pre-money

00:00 – OpenAI Tender Eyes $500b Valuation
A recent tender announcement valued OpenAI at $500 billion, a 66% increase from its $300 billion valuation earlier this year. The tender will be $6 billion and is rumored to be led by Thrive Capital (…Softbank, Dragoneer to participate as well). OpenAI projects an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $20 billion by December 2025, implying a 25x forward revenue multiple, up from a $150 billion valuation a year and a half to two years ago. Current ARR is $10 billion so the $20 billion Dec 2025 target would be a +100% in 6 months time. A tender offer allows existing shareholder exits or partial sales. OpenAI has forecasted 2029 revenue at $127 billion, 6x their $20 billion Dec 2025 forecast and 12x current ARR (note 2029 is only 4 years from now). This would easily put the company at a $1 trillion valuation or more.

06:32 – Cohere Raises at $6b Valuation
Cohere … a smaller Canadian large language model business competing with OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI … raised $500 million at a $6.8 billion post-money valuation. The company has a distinct B2B-focused approach. The secondary market valuation stands at $4.4 billion, a discount from the prior $5.5 billion round, offering a potentially attractive entry point if the market adjusts upward to the new round price. Cohere is down 5% in the secondary market over the last year while competitors OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity saw returns of 170%, 344%, and 253% respectively. The company projects revenue growth from $70 million to $200 million by year-end, leveraging a secure, closed ecosystem tailored for B2B.

12:11 – n8n Raises at $2.3b Pre-Money
n8n, an AI agent workflow application, facilitate the seamless connection of software solutions to automate tasks. The company experienced significant growth from a $350 million valuation four months ago to a $2.3 billion valuation in a new round led by Accel. n8n has 50,000 customers including Siemens and generated over $40 million in recurring revenue as of Q2 2025. The appeal lies in their ability to assist non-coders in creating tailored workflows. However, general-purpose agents may lack the effectiveness of specialized ones trained for specific tasks like marketing or sales, which benefit from pre-existing knowledge and adapt to personal context over time. AI agent workflows have the potential to reduce 7 hour weekly research task by half or a third using solutions like n8n, for example. This type of AI agent solution opens the potential for AI to enable single-person companies to reach $1 billion valuations by automating business functions.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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E219: Groq valuation projection; OpenAI $12b ARR; Lovable 100x revenue growth in 8 months

[1] Groq raises $600m at $6b valuation
• 2025F rev = $500m, 2026F rev = $1,200m, 2027F rev = $1,900m
• new round is over-subscribed
• $600m is a 10x revenue multiple
• 10x revenue multiple on $1.9b revenue is a $19.0b valuation … 3.2x in 2 yrs time
• base case path where the company hits a $50b valuation in 5 yrs ($5.0b in revenue)

[2] OpenAI $12b in annualized revenue
• Annualized revenue hits $12B in 7 months of 2025, up from $4B in 2024, with $1B monthly revenue vs. $500M at year-start
• 700M weekly active users, up from 500M in March 2025, +40% growth in 4 months
• 5M biz customers as of Jul 2025 up from 3M in Jun 2025, +66% in 1 month!
• $10b raised in 1H 2025, another $8.5b raised this summer, Softbank to invest $22.5b … $41b total … Softbank dollars tied to becoming for-profit
• $326B secondary market valuation, +8.7% vs. Feb 2025 convertible note … 27x revenue multiple

[3] Lovable massive revenue growth
• $100M ARR in 8 months, up from $1M, fastest global startup growth
• 10M+ projects built, 100,000 created daily.
• Lovable Agent now default, cuts errors by 91% for complex tasks.
• In Jul 2025 raised $200m at a $1.8b valuation, 8 months after launch

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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Figma IPO valuation set at $15-$16b | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/634mCnITcc
Figma's upcoming IPO, targeting a $15-16 billion valuation, reflects a 15x revenue multiple with an estimated $1 billion in annual revenue, down from the $20 billion Adobe offered in a failed 2022 acquisition due to European regulatory hurdles. Despite this, optimism surrounds Figma’s strong business model, with 46-50% year-over-year revenue growth, a sticky product widely adopted by premier tech companies and designers, and potential for AI integration to enhance its collaborative design platform … positioning it well for a successful public market debut amidst a favorable IPO environment.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon

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xAI + Valor for GPUs | Full 🎥 = https://t.co/634mCnJr1K
Valor's strategic $12 billion investment in 350,000 GPUs (estimated), leased to xAI, fuels xAI’s ambitious push to scale to 1 million GPUs for training cutting-edge AI models. This surpasses the 100,000-150,000 GPUs used in its current top-tier Grok 4 model. The move showcases a smart financial structure that minimizes xAI's risk while leveraging Valor's strong partnership to secure vital compute resources. The deal not only positions xAI to outpace competitors by potentially limiting their GPU access but also embraces innovative energy solutions like natural gas generators and battery storage to meet the gigawatt-scale power demands, promising transformative productivity gains, economic growth, and exciting opportunities for AI-driven innovation in education and beyond.

@clint_sorenson @TheFuscoKid @evvcohen @AaronGDillon