@_prashantnair Russia has got clean chit to capture areas of Ukraine, they've got the perfect excuse like China (very likely that there was a back door deal, where Russia agreed to not interfere with US Op as quid pro quo)
- Bro became World's top Mathematician
- authored over 70 mathematics textbook
- known as Pillar of Education of India
- provide free education to poor students
Got only 15k votes in Bihar election ๐ญ
Reason why India will not become like China
I once had a Very Bad Negotiation with a founder that eventually led to me not recommending him for an investment. He was furious, absolutely furious with me and called me near tears to say
โI thought it was your job to help founders.โ
Where did this misconception come from? A lot of VCs are super helpful in their individual capacity and genuinely love helping entrepreneurs. Most of us are slight cowards who donโt want to or canโt bring ourselves to start our own businesses so this is a way to get the best of both worlds.
Some VCs *can help founders* but ALL our jobs can boil down to our fiduciary duties to our LPs. We can be the nicest people in the world and it means nothing if we canโt generate returns. Itโs useful to remember this when you go out to fundraise imo- everyone claims to help but everyone has a limit where their want to help will be trumped by their need to generate returns.
To put it simply, โkoi saga nahi hotaโ. If youโre really lucky, youโll make friends who happen to also be funding you. But donโt think everyone whoโs funding you is your friend.
Dil mat dukhao apna. Funding aati jaati rehti hai. Dost kabhi kabhi bante hain.
You spend billions of dollars to build huge retail space to compete against kirana stores, and a few years later, you are opening small kirana shops that aren't open for customer walk ins.
It's amusing to watch small start ups dictate rules of the game to a centi-billion dollar company.
28nm is one of the most used chips across daily use items. The market size is bigger than 3nm and below. It is the sweet spot for cost - performance balance.
So be proud of what you've achieved and can achieve. Consistent Mediocrity will hopefully lead to supremacy
When Taiwan and China are manufacturing 2-3nm chips, we are proud in manufacturing 28 nmโฆ. As a country we are happy with mediocrityโฆ probably thats what we deserve also, an absolute tech which may soon become redundant or be used by poor nations like us
Ironic, new tech is supposed to widen the opportunities and possibilities yet it makes people so blindsided & narrow minded in their imagination. I've multiple counter arguments, but to give you a taste, no tech is innovated in isolation and is never for the benefit of 1 country
The next 10 years are going to be challenging for Indian Stock Markets. Why? SHORT-ANSWER: because India is not needed in the AI race.
Let me explain why:-
1) Economies get shaped & reshaped around technologies.
Right from Dutch Shipbuilding to
UK's Industrial Revolution to
US's factory automation models,
It is the "innovation" which creates new wealth.
Wealth does not appear out of thin air. It is systematically build on the back of technological innovation.
2) Innovation also follows something called: Hub and Spoke model. This means that their will be 1-2 main Hubs. These create prosperity around the world.
Around these hubs, many spokes are created. A current example would be: China (a hub), Vietnam/Thailand (spokes)
This hub and spoke model worked well for India in the last 2 decades: US F-500 required IT backed (Pune, Hyderabad, B'lore became spokes)
3) Every few decades: new technologies pick up, new hub-spokes get formed.
4) So what's the next hub and spoke model? And, what does it have to do with the Indian stock market? (read on...)
It is quite obvious that: AI is big. Very similar to how internet was big in the late 90s.
AI is shaping almost everything as we speak: right from giga-factories, space exploration, energy requirements, compute power, LLMs, personalized learning etc.
In fact: practically speak, if you go back 5 years: you would often hear -- that everyone should learn coding. But, with the advent of AI: anyone can technically reap the benefits of coding, without being a coder.
This is massive.
5) Smartest investors/entrepreneurs/biggest tech firms are all betting big on tech.
China and US: are in a AI race.
China has already built massive energy reserves (US is catching up)
US has already built massive tech reserves (and one could argue China is catching up)
This is the new arms race.
6) It is often seen: that economies that do NOT participate in innovation, end up falling behind the curve. Why?
Now genuinely, try to answer the question: why is India needed in this AI race?
1) Data harvesting? (well, this stage is already done)
2) Can we lower the cost for AI infrastructure? (we have very high cost of energy and poor leakages in infra; so we can't). We can't build giga-factories. This is the reason why our manufacturing sucks.
3) Can we provide a great market for end consumption? (well paying capacity is fairly low; this reflects in per capita GDP). Getting users to pay 20$/month is a challenge for LLMs right now.
So at a broad level: we don't have a cost advantage (like China) for production. Or a high paying customer (like the US). So where does India fit in the AI race?
Now of course: as the world becomes more productive. India will benefit too. That's obvious. Standard of living will improve. But, "compared" to other countries, it will fall.
Also, we will have pockets where our economy will grow. Eg. Zomato might start drone deliveries (huge cost advantage to them), when the world is running on aerial taxis. Startups will come from time-to-time, that will capture your attention.
But, if you go back to the base question: we are nowhere close to becoming a hub of innovation. Decades of regressive economic policies, unnecessary pride and inability to look at things rationally has put us into this situation.
All this will reflect into the stock market.
There is a reason why since 2020: FIIs have been consistently existing our markets.
I donโt care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Letโs keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks heโs still President, to watch his words. Heโs entering very dangerous territory!
(TS: 31 Jul 00:00 ET)โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
@1shankarsharma History teaches us to not predict the future in your present.
Humans have for centuries evolved their way of life with changing environment, sometimes it takes 10K years sometime 10 years - results have been across the spectrum but what's been common is that they've "Survived"
@nsitharaman Conclusion
India Inc isnโt uniformly hoarding cash.
FMCG/Chemicals/Textiles = cautious
Energy/Telecom/Cement/Metals = reinvesting aggressively (often via debt)
FMโs remark fits some sectors, but ignores a capex revival in others.
Is Corporate India really โsitting on idle cashโ?
FM @nsitharaman said India Inc is hoarding โpassive fundsโ instead of investing in growth. Govt capex is driving the cycle but are companies holding back?
I dug into sector-wise data. Hereโs what I found ๐
@nsitharaman 6/ Sector Highlights
Energy & Telecom: 50%+ of total capex
Cement: Highest capex intensity (2.2x), neg FCFF โ aggressive growth
FMCG: Low capex, high FCFF, high dividends โ conservative play