ProdigiousStack

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[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@MooneyMillions @FantasyTopHuds Team America

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@blknoiz06 it works until it doesn't

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Khallid4397 @PacmanBlur @fantasy_top_ We need another vote soon, it's time

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@PacmanBlur @travisbickle0x @fantasy_top_ should be getting a significantly higher gold distribution moving forward, this makes the prior months distribution even more ludicrous than I even imagined

@Khallid4397 @thecarpenter @thegolden_eel @Degen__Ape__ @wals_eth @icobeast

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@MooneyMillions is doing the lord's work to increase your alphas. Take the time to read through this if you're a @fantasy_top_ or considering getting into it. One of the best follows in the entire space.

[Clayton Mooney @MooneyMillions]

Alrighty, I have a lot of people asking me about the new @fantasy_top_ in-game auto deck builder.

While I’m an (indoor & outdoor) farmer IRL, I’m a fragment farmer in Fantasy Top.

TLDR: If the auto deck builder shows you have the chance for a top 10 score, go for it. If not, don't be lazy. Use it as a tool to learn from, not a crutch.

1. I think auto-deck building will get more casual and everyday players excited by Fantasy Top, as they should expect better results from at least one deck.

2. My worry about any auto-deck builder out there (and I’ve been saying this since before @FantasyTopHuds even launched) is that it’s only as good as its absolute algorithm.

3. While we are experimenting with an auto deck builder in the HUD, which pulls picks and logic from our own algorithms, I wanted to do a side-by-side comparison between Fantasy Top’s auto complete deck EV and the HUD’s True and Trending EVs.

Step 1: I went to register for Elite 30, and I chose to automatically build a deck, based upon my collection (114 cards). I was given this result (no other cards were in any other deck).
Based upon the average of the past 4 tournaments, FT tells me that this deck’s EV for points is 5,507.

Step 2: I built this same deck in the HUD.
According to our HUD, the True EV of this deck is 5,247. That’s the EV of the heroes, long term.

According to our HUD, the Trending EV of this deck is 5,448. That’s the volatile, short term EV of the heroes.

FT’s 5,507 is 5% (260 points) higher than our True EV. FT’s 55,07 is 1% (59 points) higher than our Trending EV.

I originally translated this to there being 5% more risk than relying on the HUD EV.

But is there really any risk in this deck?

No, because the auto deck builder in FT seems to weigh taking my 5 best cards, and putting them into 1 deck.

Whether the deck scores 5,247 or 5,507, it should easily be ITM.

Our Main 30 Elite ITM (100 fragments) point target (799th place) is 3,950.

So my conclusion is that anyone can/will instantly find out their best deck choice, for any league, by using the auto deck builder. That's powerful, but don't be lazy.

I think you should reference @0xthemolt's https://t.co/epWaM3y8iN for what it takes to be on top of any league, when it comes to total points--such as a top 10 score.

If the auto deck builder shows you have the right cards for a potential top 10 score, go for it.

If you're like the majority of us players and don’t have the right cards for a top 10 score, but you want to get better and better at the game, do not be lazy with the auto deck builder.

Here’s why:

I should preface like I did above, that auto deck builders are only as good as their absolute algorithm.

That means the logic is mostly something like:

Give me my highest scoring 5 cards, which adhere to the league’s rules (i.e. Bronze. Must total 5 cards. Must total 18 stars (or less).

No Auto deck builder (including our experimental ones for the HUD) take into account the following logic.

Maximize the number of fragments I can win, from my current collection, in whichever league(s) make the most sense. And now weigh heroes by real world scenarios, such as AFK, Suspended, Private, Product Launch, et. al.
-------
Way back, just after Blast TGE, and right when we started the FT Hivemind group in the @NewBlastCity Discord, I shared how I had been printing packs, every week in Elite.

Instead of going for the highest placing deck (which requires a lot more capital), I was building all common decks and placing them into Elite.

First principles thinking brought me to the realization that the Elite ITM (2 packs at the time, 799th place) meant I only had to get in the top 2/3s of decks (usually ~1,200 decks in total). So I built decks just focused on scoring in the 600-799 place range.

My 5 common lineups did just that (now it's mostly 1 rare/4 common lineups).

Today, I still focus on farming packs (now 100+ fragment positions) through minimum ITM targets.

That means the logic of the HUD’s ITM (100+ fragment positions) is also built around this farming method.

Here’s how HUD users can stay ahead of auto completed deck players.

Example A: You have a player with a 30 card collection. That player auto builds 6 decks in Elite, and it comes out like this for score EV.
5,800
5,000
3,700
3,500
3,200
2,500

23,700 total EV of cards. Of course the first deck includes the best 5 cards. The last deck is their worst 5 cards.

Past tournaments aren’t showing in V2 beyond 30th place, but from my past notes for scores and placings, I’d expect the player in example A to end up with
550 fragments and .01 ETH.

If we convert that ETH to fragments, with the current floor bids of .005, that’s a total of 650 fragments. They cash with 4/6, or 66% of decks they entered.

But what if we built decks using the HUD, with farming maximum Fragments as the deliverable? That’d mean we’re wasting points in example A. AKA putting too many good cards from the auto deck builder together, when we won’t actually benefit from it (1/3 of our collection above, made us $0).

Instead, we take those 30 cards, with a total EV of 23,700, and divide them as evenly as we can, over 6 decks. 790 EV per card x 5 cards = 3,950 EV per deck.

That means we stand a 0% chance of any deck scoring ETH. I think that’s fine, because we’re focusing on fragment farming.

Now we end up with
3,950
3,950
3,950
3,950
3,950
3,950
Every deck is aiming for the 600th through 799th place, good for 150 fragments. Instead of 650 fragment equivalent, we put ourselves in the 900 fragment equivalent.

Obviously everyone needs to view their collection’s True EV and build out as close to even as possible.

As the game evolves, so will the strategies. I’m almost certain there will come a time (likely within the next 2-3 months) when I have to switch away from this strategy.

As FT becomes more and more robust, it’s doing the right thing by helping everyday players through features such as auto deck builders. We all want more players playing the game.

But for us consistent, competitive players, we’re only ever as good as our laziest decision around our data. Don't be lazy.🤠

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@KookCapitalLLC @frankdegods @truth_terminal Until @_Mizuki_exe comes for it

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Degen__Ape__ @trustme_bros @fantasy_top_ Worth at least 200 eth though

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@icobeast @PacmanBlur @fantasy_top_ @dragonfly_xyz @ManifoldTrading This but with 100,000 more likes.

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Vader_AI_ @ai16zdao @TurboToadToken @truth_terminal @0xzerebro @ACTICOMMUNITY @FartCoinOfSOL still missing $TRUST

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Degen__Ape__ @trustme_bros He will get there very soon. Just a few bugs to work out.

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@edgeville More like 204 or 89

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@boldleonidas its always 'lofi hip hop radio 📚 beats to relax/study to' iykyk

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Degen__Ape__ @trustme_bros He makes it so simple, you just have to $TRUST the process and follow the outputs

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@pmarca Glorious, it's going to be a shame when they both retire in three decades.

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

Those that were liquidated would've benefited from this advice. Unfortunately, they fell victim to FUD, specifically:

Yearly trend of quantum computing updates tricking weak hands in the space that all encryption in the world is on the verge of being broken (note: this severely impacts everything, not just crypto).

MSFT deciding not to ape into BTC via a @saylor sails pitch (note: they still could easily decide to add BTC to their coffers later, its in their best interest to initially decline this request to create a dip and corresponding buying opportunity, and the most important first step is to plant the seed - trees take a while to reach maturity).

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@Degen__Ape__ @pirate_cheetah @trustme_bros Ultra bullish

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@trustme_bros @frogleader_eth Consider selling heroes who have seen a large single day gain in scoring due to a single tweet and buying floorfluencers who have previously been top 50-75 heroes but have fallen below rank 150 due to multiple weeks of inactivity / low scoring.

[ProdigiousStack @ProdigiousStack]

@rasmr_eth You look more like gainzy