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[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

NOTE: Prices are about $1.25 lower (17%) than May 13
(the report built in), so how will the market react to
whatever number USDA has today???

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The Iran-US war continues, with both sides firing missiles/etc at each other the past 24 hrs. Yet, there seems to be hope that peace might break out (crude went from $2 gains last night to negative this
AM).

Will oil flow out of the Middle East? Or will crude
prices soar again?

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

We get USDA's June guesses today, with winter wheat
production estimates probably of the most interest.

Can USDA reduce winter wheat yields more than they
already cut it (47.6 bu)?

This extremely low level & 25% abandonment estimate
in May was a shocker & topped the market

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

@SoybeansRus We agree. Most are.

The very few good ones won't give their info for free (for very long). We certainly don't - and our customers have managed their risk a lot better.

The guys interviewed on TV/writing for free are behind the ball on everything. Drives us nuts.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The USDA June report is tomorrow, and one update
likely is #winterwheat yields, with our yield model
declining every week since the May report.

Since USDA started with such a low number, will they
simply leave it there at 47.6 bu or drop it even more?

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

Is the trade wrong to have taken grain prices sharply
lower last week???

Actions are being taken by our customers every week,
to manage their risk better.

We don't know what the market is doing, but there's
always ways to protect yourself & your grain prices.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

It is quite clear that the market has WAY overestimated
the potential improvement in '26 spring planted crops.

The only crops that improved were HRS wheat (+5% to
52% G/E) & barley (+2% to 40% G/E), but both still
below last year's rating (also a poor crop).

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

@CVDmarkets It's very clear the market was WYA overestimated the potential for improvement in spring crops.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

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[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The market has assumed the corn belt will be healed up
with generous rains by July 1 and have big spring
planted crops, as July corn has gone to a new yearly
low yesterday.

Dec corn is within 12c of its yearly low, &
wheat/soybeans are headed lower as well.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The best rains in weeks are forecast to fall in the corn belt/HRW wht belt Wed night - Fri night. Will they fall, or disappoint as they have the past month in most of US?

The 6-10 & 8-14 are leaning drier recently, with below normal precip now forecast in the NE corn belt.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

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[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

Grain markets are still trying to build in the $17B China
trade deal Trump made last week, which basically is
an additional billion bu of corn sold & 500 mb of both
wheat/soybeans - a HUGE sale if it happens.

Do we have the stocks to sell to China the next 3 years??

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

#winterwheat is currently losing about 10-15 mil bu/week.

Unless rain falls quickly & excessively (not likely once drought begins), it'll continue to deteriorate & prices
continue to rise.

The descent is increasing in speed & so is the price rise
to allocate the shortage.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

Also affecting grains is market anticipation of the US
ending its role in the Iran war - essentially telling NATO
countries starved for crude oil to open the Hormuz
Strait themselves.

We'll see where this goes.

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

Increased rain in long-term forecasts pressured wheat
prices overnight after a rather bullish USDA March 31
report.

In it, stocks were 5 mb less than expected, & intended
acreage nearly 1 million acres lower than expected
- bullish!!!

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The report was slightly bearish #corn but bullish #soybeans.

Overall, the report had little impact on grains by the
close, perhaps indicating the trade understands
w/higher N fertilizer prices, this is the high estimate of
corn acres & the low estimate of soybean acres???

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

Today we get the intended acres report from USDA,
which might be less important than normal as
we still don't know if farmers reaction to higher
priced/potentially unavailable nitrogen fertilizer
supplies will be (less corn, more soys?)

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

The impact is similar for metals (higher when peace breaks out),
stock market (higher with peace), and the US dollar
(lower with peace, higher when we flex our military muscle).

[Progressive Ag @Progressive_Ag]

In grains, when peace occurs #soybeans rally since
fertilizer is more likely to float to US in time for the '26
corn/wheat season - less acres switched to soys
(no fert).

Soys also benefit from peace as China, our biggest
export customer, is Iran's biggest oil customer.