Prop Prizm

Find every +EV bet with PropPrizm EV+. Free player prop research for MLB & WNBA underneath it all. NBA & NFL coming soon.

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PropPrizm EV+ is live.

Every +EV bet on the board, pulled from real sportsbook prices and ranked by edge. Research any pick with our matchup breakdowns and player cards, then bet the ones with a real edge.

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Bryce Miller o5.5 Ks vs New York

The Yankees strike out at the third-highest rate in baseball (28th of 30), and their lineup is loaded with whiff-prone bats: Spencer Jones (37% K), Ryan McMahon (29%) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (28%).

Miller has an elite splitter he throws 24% of the time that suppresses contact (.180 xba) and misses bats (37% K rate and a 33% whiff rate). If he goes 6 innings he clears his line. He has cleared 5.5 in 6 of his last 10.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/LDXcj7APuc

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Zack Wheeler o5.5 Ks vs St. Louis

Wheeler is pitching like a true ace, he's got a 30.6% strikeout rate (94th percentile), a 27.8% whiff rate and a 2.73 xERA. His four-seamer misses bats at a 30% clip and his splitter is a genuine put-away pitch (42% K, 46% whiff).

He has cleared 5.5 in 8 of his last 10 starts. St. Louis is a contact-first lineup, but Crooks (30% K) and Walker (26%) are there to attack, and for a 30%-plus strikeout arm, 5.5 is a low bar.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/LDXcj7APuc

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Bryan Woo u17.5 Outs vs New York

As much as this pick pains me as a Mariner fan, Woo is a completely different pitcher on the road. At home he owns a 1.96 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Away, it balloons to a 6.71 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, and tonight he's on the road.

In his last five away outings he has stayed under 17.5 outs every single time, topping out at 15. Away from home he simply has not been pitching deep enough to get there, now facing a dangerous Yankees lineup that can knock him out early.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/0owMc6wNZU

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Paul Skenes o6.5 Ks vs Miami

Skenes is one of the best strikeout arms in baseball. He has a 30.3% strikeout rate (93rd percentile) and a 26.5% whiff rate. His entire arsenal misses bats, a 34% K four-seamer, a 34% K sweeper and a 38% K changeup.

Although he's been beaten up the last few outings, he's still hit over 6.5 in 4 of his last 5 with an 11-strikeout game mixed in. Miami's lineup gives him whiff-prone bats to attack in Owen Caissie (35% K), Griffin Conine (32%) and Kyle Stowers (31%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/0owMc6wNZU

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MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks vs the Angels

Gore misses bats with a 25.6% strikeout rate (74th percentile) and a 23.4% whiff rate, headlined by a changeup that gets a 42% K rate and 40% whiff, plus a curveball at 32% whiff.

The matchup is elite. The Angels own the highest team strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching (30th of 30), and Gore is a lefty. Their lineup is full of swing-and-miss bats: Siri (37% K), Guzman (33%), Neto (29%) and Trout (24%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/6i273e4w2Z

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Reid Detmers o6.5 Ks vs Texas

Detmers misses bats at an elite clip: a 28.3% strikeout rate (87th percentile) paired with a 25.4% whiff rate. His slider is a genuine put-away pitch (38% K, 36% whiff) and his curveball misses just as often (35% K, 36% whiff).

The matchup sets up perfectly. Texas owns one of the highest team strikeout rates in baseball against left-handed pitching (26th of 30), and Detmers is a lefty. Their lineup is loaded with strikeout targets: Cameron Cauley (30% K), Jake Burger (29%), Wyatt Langford (28%), Ezequiel Duran (26%) and Justin Foscue (25%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/6i273e4w2Z

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WNBA research is now live on PropPrizm.

Every player card, matchup breakdown and hit rate you already use for MLB is now available for the WNBA, and it is free.

NBA and NFL are next, each going live when its season starts.

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Bryce Harper o1.5 H+R+RBI vs Washington

Model projects 2.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs and gives him a 56% probability to clear the over.

Harper is mashing: a .389 xwOBA (99th percentile), a 90th-percentile xBA and an 11.8% barrel rate, and he's cleared 1.5 in 7 of his last 10. Against right-handers he carries a .994 OPS and a .425 xwOBA over 295 plate appearances.

He draws Jake Irvin, a right-hander who gets hit hard, a .358 xwOBA and 45.9% hard-hit rate allowed. Irvin's four-seam fastball, 27% of his pitches, is getting tagged for a .422 xwOBA, and he averages under 5 innings a start, so Harper likely sees the bullpen too.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/6i273e4w2Z

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Andrew Painter u4.5 Ks vs Washington

Model projects 3.8 Ks and gives him a 70% probability to stay under.

Painter has stayed under 4.5 in 8 of his last 9 starts while averaging under 5 innings a night. He popped for 6 last time out, but that was against one of the highest K rate teams in the league (BAL 27/30) His K rate (18.3%) and whiff rate (20.8%) are both below average, and his most-used pitch, a four-seam fastball he throws a third of the time, is getting tagged for a .429 xwOBA and just an 8% strikeout rate.

Washington does not help the over either. Their projected lineup runs just a 19% strikeout rate, a contact-first group that puts the ball in play instead of chasing.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/6i273e4w2Z

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Jared Jones o5.5 Ks vs Milwaukee

Model projects 6.5 Ks and gives him a 59% probability to clear the over.

The underlying stuff is genuinely very good. Jones sits in the 85th percentile in both strikeout rate (27.8%) and whiff rate (28.1%), backed by a 3.02 xERA and a .203 xBA against. This is real, top-tier swing-and-miss stuff.

He's cleared 5.5 in 3 of his last 5. Milwaukee doesn't strike out much as a team, but the lineup still gives him whiff-prone bats to target in Garrett Mitchell (32% K), Christian Yelich (27%) and Jake Bauers (27%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/pKYWpJK9IX

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Emerson Hancock o4.5 Ks vs Detroit

Model projects 5.3 Ks and gives him a 58% probability to clear the over.

Hancock has cleared 4.5 in 3 of his last 5 and averages 5.5 innings a start, enough length to get there. His four-seam fastball is the primary at a 27% strikeout rate, and his sweeper is a legit put-away weapon (43% K, 37% whiff).

Detroit's lineup projects to a 23% strikeout rate tonight, led by a very whiff-prone Outman (44% K), with Spencer Torkelson (32%) and Riley Greene (25%) behind him.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/pKYWpJK9IX

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Ian Seymour o4.5 Ks vs Colorado

Model has this at a near-even 51%, but the underlying metrics look very good here.

Seymour is a lefty with real swing-and-miss: a 27.8% K rate (86th percentile) and a 26.7% whiff rate, and he has been even sharper lately at a 30% K rate over his last 10 starts. His changeup (36% K, 37% whiff) and sweeper (31% K, 33% whiff) are both plus put-away pitches.

The matchup is also very good. Colorado has the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching (28th of 30), and tonight's lineup is stacked with swing-and-miss bats like Hunter Goodman (37% K), Mickey Moniak (35%) and Ezequiel Tovar (33%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/chSNsTHVru

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Yordan Alvarez o1.5 TB vs Toronto

Model projects 2.6 total bases and gives him a 57% probability to clear the over.

Alvarez is red hot, over 1.5 bases in 4 of his last 5 including a 7-total-base night his last time out. The contact quality behind it is elite: a .470 xwOBA, an 18.4% barrel rate and a 53.9% hard-hit rate, all in the top 3% of baseball. Against right-handers he is slugging .690 over 364 plate appearances.

He draws Shane Bieber, who has been very hittable this year at a .406 xwOBA allowed. Bieber leans on a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time, and it is getting tagged for a .450 xwOBA.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/chSNsTHVru

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🔥🔥 Jax only needs 3 innings to hit his over. Easy work ✅

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Griffin Jax o5.5 Ks vs Chicago

Model projects 8.3 Ks and gives him a 79% probability to clear the over.

Jax works off two elite swing-and-miss pitches, a sweeper at 25.5% usage with a 37.8% whiff rate, and a changeup at 23.5% usage with a 42.6% whiff rate. Both grade as plus bat-missers.

Chicago's confirmed lineup strikes out 24.3% of the time and is loaded with high-K bats, led by Colson Montgomery (33%), Everson Pereira (32%) and Drew Romo (26%).

Free research and stats at https://t.co/k8X07dMMoZ

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Munetaka Murakami o1.5 H+R+RBI vs Tampa Bay

Model projects 2.4 combined hits, runs and RBIs and gives him a 56% probability to clear the over.

The contact quality is very good, a 20.1% barrel rate, a 60.4% hard-hit rate and a .625 slug. He's gone deep twice in his last five games.

He draws right-hander Griffin Jax, and Murakami crushes righties, a .401 xwOBA over 226 plate appearances.

Free research and stats at https://t.co/k8X07dMMoZ