TMAC🚀💣🔥

⚾ MLB Capper @ WeezyProps
🚀 Daily MLB Props • PrizePicks & UnderDog
🔥 30% OFF WeezyProps Discord ⬇️

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

BANNNNGGGGGG!

🚨 DOUBLE CASH DAY 🚨

✅ 10x posted on X CASHES
✅ 25x Main Plays in Discord CASH

Appreciate everyone riding with me! We keep showing up, trusting the process, and cashing tickets. More heat tomorrow. 🚀💣🔥📈

#prizepicks #DFS #MLBBetting

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

🎯 3 mispriced MLB props + the Messi free square = 10x opportunity.

Sometimes you don’t need to overcomplicate it. Pair the free Messi prop with three numbers I think are off and let it ride. 🤝⚾️🐐

Drake Baldwin O 4.5 FS
Carter Jensen O 4.5 FS
Ty France O 4.5 FS
Messi Free Prop ✅

Let’s cash another one. 🚀💣🔥

#PrizePicks #MLB #WorldCup #SportsBetting

[Ballpark Pal @BallparkPal]

There is lots of evidence that the HR environment is different since the All-Star Break, but the exact cause is still unclear (long post, not AI, tldr at the bottom)

Usually when there's a significant change to the baseball, it shows up in distance/flight/drag data. While you can make a case the ball hasn't been flying as far as expected, that *is not* the main reason this time.

The clearest signal is that contact quality has suddenly gotten worse. Take a look at the chart below (14-day moving average). Expected-HRs-per-Ball-in-Play dropped out of normal variation right around the All-Star-Break. So what's in this number, and what does it mean?

It means: "Based on the physical characterstics of how the balls are getting hit (exit velocity, launch angle, direction), we should expect FEWER batted balls to result in home runs."

In other words, if you ONLY look at how the ball is leaving the bat as soon as it's hit, there are fewer batted balls that SHOULD end up going over the fence.

From there the analysis gets really messy. Unlike distance, there are wayyyy more factors that can contribute to worse contact quality (specifically worse HR quality).

- Exit velocity, launch angle & direction
- Pitch location, movement, velocity, shape, spin
- Bat speed, plane, angle
- Batter's approach / skill level

This is why it's hard to say for sure that a ball change occurred. But there are some general assertions that can be made, through analysis not shown here:

- Bat speed has not gone down
- Pitch velocity has not gone down
- Neither pitch quality nor pitch mix has changed in a way that should produce fewer home runs.
- Summer weather is still having a positive HR effect on the balls getting hit

From MLB's Drag Dashboard on Baseball Savant:

"The performance of the baseball is primarily driven by two factors: the coefficient of restitution (“COR”), which impacts the exit velocity of the ball off the bat, and the drag coefficient, which impacts how far a batted ball carries once struck. All else equal, an increase in COR will lead to greater exit velocities, while an increase in drag will decrease the carry distance. Together, these two properties have a significant impact on the run environment in Major League Baseball and on the home run rate, in particular."

Logically, and through analysis not included here, the best guess appears to be that a new ball was introduced around the All-Star Break that caused a decrease in COR, leading to slower exit velocities.

This is only a guess at this point, because of how complicated exit velocity is. But it does seem to be the best guess, and is the assumption Ballpark Pal is operating under in its projections.

TL;DR: The post-All-Star-Break drop in home runs appears to be driven more by worse contact off the bat than by reduced carry. Bat speed, pitch velocity/mix, and weather don’t explain the change. The hypothesis that Ballpark Pal is operating under is that a new baseball with lower COR - and slightly more drag - was introduced around the break, reducing exit velocity and HR-quality contact. That fits the data, but it is not proven.

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

Hate to see it! He has so much potential just keeps getting set back by injuries

[Underdog MLB @UnderdogMLB]

POBO Krall: Hunter Greene to undergo elbow surgery.

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

DINGER PARLAY 💣🔥

Bryce Harper + Shohei Ohtani to leave the yard today 🚀

+2533 on Kalshi 👀
Two superstars. Two bombs. That’s all we need.

#MLB #HomeRunParlay #Kalshi #Gambling𝕏

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

https://t.co/d5JjenSrQ7

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

FLEX FRIDAY 😈🔥

Rolling with a 67X protected flex today. $5 ➡️ $335 — might as well swing with the protection! 🚀💣🔥

And @PrizePicks… can we PLEASE get these Flex Fridays back to at least $20 protected slips again?! 😭 We miss the old days 😂

#PrizePicks #MLB #FlexFriday #DFS #Gambling𝕏

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

Football is all the way back baby! What an electric game!

#NFL #HOFgame

[Action Network @ActionNetworkHQ]

HALL OF FAME GAME WALK OFF!!!!!

Rookie Haynes King brings it home for the Panthers (-1.5) and Dave Canales moves to 1-6 ATS in preseason games 👀

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

PLAY OF THE DAY CASHES! ✅💰

Wilyer Abreu O 5 FS ➡️ 11 FS 🚀
Got the job done and then some. 💣🔥

Another POTD in the books. 🤝

#PrizePicks #MLBProps #GamblingX

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

🎯 PrizePicks Play of the Day 🎯

Wilyer Abreu OVER 5 Fantasy Score 🚀

Abreu matches up well with Luis Castillo’s pitch mix, and Fenway is always a great place to back quality hitters. Warm weather, favorable conditions, and he’s been seeing the ball very well lately. Let’s cash it. 💰🔥

#prizepicks #Gambling𝕏

[Pardon My Take @PardonMyTake]

Haynes King and Carson Beck on a random August night

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

This hall of fame game on one tv and Redsox vs Whitesox game on the other both are absolutely electric!

[Hammer DAHN @HammerDAHN]

FOOTBALL WILL BE PLAYED TONIGHT

[Zach Reger @zachreger18]

“It’s the Hall of Fame Game, there’s no way you’re actually betting on this.”

Me:

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

🎯 PrizePicks Play of the Day 🎯

Wilyer Abreu OVER 5 Fantasy Score 🚀

Abreu matches up well with Luis Castillo’s pitch mix, and Fenway is always a great place to back quality hitters. Warm weather, favorable conditions, and he’s been seeing the ball very well lately. Let’s cash it. 💰🔥

#prizepicks #Gambling𝕏

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

https://t.co/q9sXCDS7M6

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

Let’s get an early slate banger going today!

#prizepicks #DFS #Gambling𝕏

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

@KevinRothWx Awesome, Appreciate you always being a man of the people while also being the best at what you do!

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

@KevinRothWx @PropFinderApp How’re we looking for the hall of fame game tonight? Any weather concerns?

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

@WordzyOG Him in the cleanup spot is gonna be a RBI machine for Philly!

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

Arraez finishing the season with 10+ HR’s in Philly?🤔

[TMAC🚀💣🔥 @PropsByTMAC]

Holy shit this guys amazing😂