Melo Props

NBA Prop Analyst | NBA '23 473-326 +55.42u | NBA '24 423-333 +47.81u

[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA Season Recap (+47.81u) :

Regular season:

Record: 380-298
Profit: +41.53
ROI: 6.12%

Playoffs:

Record: 41-34
Profit: +1.63u
ROI: 2.17%

Futures:

Record: 2-1
Profit: +4.65u
ROI: 132.86%

Total Profit: +47.81u

End of another profitable NBA season. I'm not happy with my playoff performance since I smashed last season post-season but I'm glad we finished the season close to +50u. Thanks for all the support during the process!

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2026-01-14 Knicks vs Kings

Josh Hart Over 11.5 Points (-115 DK, -130 FD) - 1.5u

- Very strange line for Hart. He returned from injury last game and he played 31 minutes. Should play solid minutes once again and I don't think he'll lose his starting role here as well.
- 19/26 hit rate with +26 minutes this season.
- Kings has 3rd worst defensive rating in the league. They don't have many good defenders so I expect Hart to get really terrible defender like LaVine or DeRozan most of the time here.
- 11/13 hit rate vs bottom 10 paint defense with solid minutes this season.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/13 #NBA Recap 2-1 +0.88u (Season: 151-108 +28.11u)

Julian Champagnie Over 6.5 Rebounds ❌

Premium:
Jaden McDaniels Over 7.5 RA ✅
Peyton Watson Over 18.5 Points ✅

Too bad we missed the sweep with the hook. Champagnie got 6 rebounds before the 4th and couldn't get single one in the final quarter.

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2026-01-13 Spurs vs Thunder

Julian Champagnie Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110 MGM, -120 365, -129 CZR) - 1.5u

- Champagnie cooking for us recently, I'm trusting him one more tim here.
- Vassell out. That means we'll see Champagnie starts again and he'll get solid minutes.
- 6/7 hit rate without Vassell.
- Thunder is great matchup for rebounds. They have huge rebounding problems especially without Hartenstein and they play 5 out without him so more rebounding chances for wing players here.
- Champagnie got 5, 10 and 8 rebounds vs OKC this season despite he only played 20, 22 and 27 minutes.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/12 #NBA Recap 0-1 -1.00u (Season: 149-107 +27.23u)

LeBron James Over 22.5 Points ❌

Annoying hook. His 1st no 3 pointer game in L10 games so we were so unlucky there. We have much better slate now so hopefully more plays and more money inc!

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-12 Lakers vs Kings

LeBron James Over 22.5 Points (-125 FD, -137 CZR, -145 MGM) - 1.0u

- Reaves still out. Without him, LeBron had to take extra offensive responsibilities and they really need him score since nothing works for Lakers besides Doncic when it comes to offense.
- 8/9 hit rate without Reaves this season.
- He had 24 points vs Kings 2 weeks ago in only 29 minutes because of the blowout.
- Kings is terrible when it comes to defense. They have 3rd worst defensive rating in the league and they're literally playing without rim protector and elite perimeter defender most of the time.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/11 #NBA Recap 1-0 +1.68u (Season: 149-106 +28.23u)

Premium:
Kel'el Ware Under 9.5 Rebounds ✅

Unfortunately no free play yesterday but we cashed amazing plus odd play here as Ware only finished the game with 1 rebounds. Make sure you join premium to not miss plays like this!

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/10 #NBA Recap 0-1 -1.50u (Season: 148-106 +26.55u)

Victor Wembenyama Over 31.5 PR ❌

NBA's next face barely covered his points line but somehow managed to get less rebounds than 4 other players in the team despite being 7' 4". Not even mentioning their coach's no-sense starting lineup announcement before the game. We move.

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-10 Celtics vs Spurs

Victor Wembenyama Over 31.5 PR (-110 365, -111 DK, -115 FD) - 1.5u

- Spurs coach said Wemby possible rejoining to starting lineup tonight. Of course this doesn't mean his minutes will go up but definitely has a chance to see him playing more minutes tonight.
- But main reason of this play is matchup. Celtics Center Queta is amazing defender but he's actually very undersized for a Center. He's originally PF but Celtics using him as Center because of they don't have any other options to be fair.
- Also Celtics have amazing perimeter defenders that can limit Castle or Fox. Wemby has to play extra tonight offensively vs Celtics.
- Centers with huge size advantage vs Queta recently (PR): Nurkic 34, Clingan 36, Ware 38.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/07-09 #NBA Recap 4-2 +1.05u (Season: 148-105 +28.05u)

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 Rebounds ✅
Aaron Gordon Over 21.5 PRA ❌

Premium:
Ivica Zubac Over 23.5 PR ✅
Peyton Watson Over 17.5 Points ✅
Sandro Mamukelashvili Over 11.5 Points ✅
Justin Champagnie Over 9.5 Points ❌

Sorry for late recap boys. I was pretty busy with the work other day, we were 1 Aaron Gordon bucket away from solid profit that day but bounced back strong this time with 2-0 mini sweep.

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-07 Lakers vs Spurs

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 Rebounds (-111 DK, -115 FD, -120 CZR) - 1.0u

- I couldn't choose between 17.5 PR and 5.5 rebounds but decided to go with rebounds only in the end. Both plays are equally good for me.
- Vassell out. That means we'll see Champagnie starts again and he'll get solid minutes.
- Wemby is questionable and obviously if he's out this line will be much more valuable here.
- 13/18 hit rate with +28 minutes.
- 4/4 hit rate without Vassell.
- Lakers isn't easy matchup when it comes to rebounding but he already got 7 rebounds twice vs Lakers this season and I expect similar numbers from him here.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

It's actually pretty relevant. This guy has 23.6 PRA average with Jokic and 34.6 PRA avg without Jokic. But this could be misleading if he has only 3/7 hit rate and hits were huge numbers like 50-60.

That hit rate means he put consistently above average numbers in each game without him, we can argue about how precise this line with questionable minute range but we can't say it's not relevant because it clearly tells you something.

[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-07 Nuggets vs Celtics

Aaron Gordon Over 21.5 PRA (-102 FD, -107 DK, -107 CZR) - 1.5u

- Gordon returned pretty good from injury and he recorded 28 PRA in 21 minutes. He had 4 day rest so I expect him to play around 25 minutes and even more in best case scenario.
- But even with limited minutes Gordon recorded +20 PRA in 4 games this season with 20-25 minutes range with Jokic.
- His numbers are pretty impressive this season because of MPJ's absence benefited him most. Now without Jokic he's even in better position because that means more usage, rebound and assist chances for him.
- Celtics is tough matchup defensively but their only weakness might be PF spot. They allow 8th most points to opposing PFs because they have huge size disadvantage in that position.
- 7/7 hit rate without Jokic in the last 3 seasons.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/05 #NBA Recap 3-1 +1.74u (Season: 144-101 +29.00u)

Peyton Watson Over 21.5 PA ✅

Premium
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Assists ✅
Collin Gillespie Under 4.5 Assists ✅
Lauri Markkanen Over 26.5 Points ❌

We were so close to have B2B sweeps but blowout ruined Markkanen bet altough he was on track to cash. Still very solid day with sweet profit!

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-05 Nuggets vs 76ers

Peyton Watson Over 21.5 PA (-115 DK, -121 CZR, -125 FD) - 1.0u

- All star players for Nuggets out tonight. Somebody has to take shots tonight and Watson did great job so far without Jokic. I expect him to have high volume here once again without Jokic and carry Nuggets offensively.
- 5/6 hit rate with +14 FGA this season.
- 3/3 hit rate without Jokic.
- I like matchup here because even tho 76ers has much better squad here we know that they have so many defensive issues and their games usually ends with high scores. Their transition defense is problematic so Watson should find good looks tonight.
- Obviously huge blowout expectation here but I think Nuggets can stay competitive a little bit here because they'll play with 5 strong defenders tonight.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/04 #NBA Recap 3-0 +2.73u (Season: 141-100 +27.26u)

Peyton Watson Over 13.5 Points ✅

Premium:
Anthony Black Over 22.5 PR ✅
Paul Reed Over 16.5 PRA ✅

Nice and clean! Love the reads and they all cashed pretty easily.

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-04 Nuggets vs Nets

Peyton Watson Over 13.5 Points (-106 FD, -107 DK, -120 CZR) - 1.0u

- Gordon and Braun listed available tonight but they'll be on minute restriction. Absence of Jokic is huge and we know Nets is problem for ball handlers so I still expect good usage for Watson here.
- 9/12 hit rate with +10 FGA this season.
- Matchup is amazing. Nets is terrible when it comes to transition and spot-up defense which covers more than half of Watson's points this season.
- Blowout is always concern for Nets games but MPJ will play tonight and it's his first game vs Nuggets so I expect them to be somehow competitive here.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

01/03 #NBA Recap 3-2 +0.53u (Season: 138-100 +24.53u)

Matas Buzelis Over 18.5 PA ✅
Tyrese Maxey Over 7.5 Assists ❌

Premium:
Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points ✅
Jaylen Brown Over 27.5 Points ✅
Scottie Barnes Over 9.5 Rebounds ❌

We had nice sweat free cashes but unfortunately both Maxey and Edgecombe had amazing shooting night so they just play lots of ISO balls, Raptors coach decided to change his strat once again and played with Center and completely ruined Barnes rebounds. Still we closed the day with +!

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-03 76ers vs Knicks

Tyrese Maxey Over 7.5 Assists (+114 FD, +114 DK, +112 CZR) - 1.0u

- 76ers finally close to being healthy and atleast they have their starters set for now. Especially Embiid is crucial here because they play so many P&R action together and use Edgecombe, Barlow and George as finishers when opponents brings extra help.
- With Embiid & George, Maxey recored +12 pAST in every game he played this season.
- Maxey's minutes are also insane this season as he's averaging 40 minutes per game.
- Matchup is perfect here. NY allows 5th most assists to opposing PGs. Their high pressure defense cause ball handlers to pass more than usual.
- 5/5 hit rate with Embiid & PG & Edgecombe.
- He had 9 assists from 19 potentials vs Knicks without Embiid this season.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-03 Bulls vs Hornets

Matas Buzelis Over 18.5 PA (-114 FD, -115 365, -118 CZR) - 1.0u

- Giddey and White still out. Bulls made few changes since both these players injured and put Jalen Smith into starting lineup and shifted Buzelis into SF position. Without star players and with correct position Buzelis played great and Bulls won 2 of their games. I expect same usage and role from Buzelis here.
- 21 and 28 PA in this span with 17 & 14 FGA.
- Love the matchup here. He'll most likely guarded by terrible defender Brandon Miller here. Hornets has 5th worst defensive rating in the league and vulnerable to players especially likes to drive a lot.
- 10/14 hit rate with +12 FGA this season.

Research: @propsmadness

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[Melo Props @PropsMelo]

#NBA for 2025-01-03 Bulls vs Hornets

Matas Buzelis Over 18.5 PA (-114 FD, -115 365, -118 CZR) - 1.0u

- Giddey and White still out. Bulls made few changes since both these players injured and put Jalen Smith into starting lineup and shifted Buzelis into SF position. Without star players and with correct position Buzelis played great and Bulls won 2 of their games. I expect same usage and role from Buzelis here.
- 21 and 28 PA in this span with 17 & 14 FGA.
- Love the matchup here. He'll most likely guarded by terrible defender Brandon Miller here. Hornets has 5th worst defensive rating in the league and vulnerable to players especially likes to drive a lot.
- 10/14 hit rate with +12 FGA this season.

Research: @propsmadness

Use code "MELO" for 25% off your subscription.

#GamblingX #PlayerProps