Prakash Sakpal

Economist

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

A recession in Singapore seems inevitable. That's why we've cut our forecast for 2020 growth to 0.3% from 1.0%. Hopes are pinned on stimulatory policies, including a MAS easing in April to hopefully revive some demand in the second half of the year. https://t.co/b6J8ID2s0x

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

The political crisis in Malaysia throws the imminent fiscal stimulus package into disarray and sends the Malaysian ringgit on a steady depreciation path. https://t.co/oTsaxbLbru

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

As investors continue to assess the economic damage of Covid-19, support for Asian economies from both the fiscal and monetary side is on the rise. For the same reason, Singapore's budget takes centre stage next week. https://t.co/FfgHJ5JDIt

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Supply shock dented Malaysia's GDP growth in 4Q19, though demand wasn’t a problem. It’s not going to be too long before the demand takes a hit from the rapid spread of Covid-19. We cut our 2020 growth forecast to 3.5% from 4.5%. https://t.co/sUpgiaTp8p

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

As Thailand cuts rates, we've added one more 25 basis point rate cut to our forecast this year, as the spread of the coronavirus depresses growth outlook, most likely via tourism. https://t.co/qLiymEL9eu

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Malaysia’s trade ended 2019 on a firmer note, but 2020 is off to a weaker start. If uncontained, the spread of the coronavirus poses a significant threat to the country's trade, tourism, and the overall growth outlook in 2020. https://t.co/T5qWOTcfsP

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

We view 31-33 as a new higher trading range for the USD/THB rate in 2020 and we see it trading close to the top end of this range over the next three months. We are also downgrading our current account and GDP growth forecasts for 2020. https://t.co/MWO7P8nlB3

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Thailand’s activity data points to further dip in growth in 4Q19, while the hit to tourism from the coronavirus is clouding the outlook for 2020. The conditions are ripe for more BoT rate cuts and there could be one as early as next week. https://t.co/g67Y7ddfYD

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

The holiday-related slack in Asian markets kicks off tomorrow and will continue through next week, which with a light data calendar will make it a quite week ahead. Still, there will be things that matter for markets. Find out here what those are...
https://t.co/vV3NMMS36D

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Bank Negara Malaysia’s rate cut today is yet another insurance move to support growth, while inflation remains benign. We believe BNM's brief easing cycle has run its course.
https://t.co/7J4yPC5dDE

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Reduced trade noise should bring some calm to the markets next week, while liquidity gets thin and economic data gets overshadowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. There are few central bank meetings, but we don't expect them to disturb the calm. https://t.co/VzXOE5rBid

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

As elsewhere in Asia, the worst of Malaysia’s trade downturn appears to be over though the recovery could be painfully slow. https://t.co/GmQAtqykSE

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

The Reserve Bank of India’s Governor Shaktikanta Das is determined to ease for as long as it takes, particularly now that weak investment has pushed GDP growth lower. We expect a bigger, 40 basis point rate cut this week (consensus 25bp). https://t.co/lIcR8Txu6W

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

It’s going to be a busy week in Asia dominated by the usual start-of-the-month economic releases as well as India and Australia's central bank meetings. https://t.co/QbsiLww6nR

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Trade data stands out in an otherwise light economic calendar in Asia, while the US-China trade noise will remain a key driver for markets in the week ahead. https://t.co/Q9QBcvITX8

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Central bank meetings, third-quarter GDP releases and October data releases from China and India – all make it a pretty busy week ahead for markets in Asia. https://t.co/gRiRXbQtmL

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Today’s cut takes the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate to its previous all-time low of 1.25% seen during the 2009 global financial crisis. We think this marks an end of a relative short-easing cycle of an otherwise hawkish Asian central bank. https://t.co/sf1dKgeA3v

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Malaysia’s electronic export vigour observed earlier in the year has ended. And with continued external headwinds, downside growth risks are rising. This is why we are bucking the consensus of stable BNM policy. We expect a 25bp BNM rate cut tomorrow. https://t.co/SwrgjsNK6F

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Based on today’s manufacturing data we estimate an upward revision to 3Q GDP growth to 2.1% QoQ annualised from 0.6% in the advance estimate. The economy avoids a recession, but a lack of stimulus will make a recovery difficult to achieve. https://t.co/mA0jqFDYUX

[Prakash Sakpal @prsak]

Stable third-quarter GDP growth of some Asian economies is a promising sign that the cyclical downturn in the region is close to its trough. And so is the central bank easing cycle with some exceptions like the Bank of Japan. https://t.co/GZazzvPou6