![Domahhhh's tweet photo. The Mis-Anthropic World.
A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own.
In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K.
Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi.
Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth.
Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts."
I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit."
NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process.
That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet.
Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world.
Let's go over the newest example:
The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth.
Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this.
In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released.
The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama.
In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here?
(It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that)
Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world.
Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes."
OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward!
Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast."
OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi!
But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify."
The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product.
Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO.
You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event].
So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes?
Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks.
It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again.
Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc.
This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands.
Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end.
Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market:
"THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO."
You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say.
But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated.
So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality.
Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless.
And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...?
It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans.
That is bad on any planet.
(In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAfdV9JXoAA2ARU.jpg)
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. The Mis-Anthropic World.
A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own.
In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K.
Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi.
Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth.
Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts."
I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit."
NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process.
That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet.
Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world.
Let's go over the newest example:
The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth.
Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this.
In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released.
The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama.
In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here?
(It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that)
Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world.
Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes."
OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward!
Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast."
OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi!
But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify."
The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product.
Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO.
You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event].
So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes?
Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks.
It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again.
Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc.
This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands.
Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end.
Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market:
"THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO."
You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say.
But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated.
So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality.
Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless.
And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...?
It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans.
That is bad on any planet.
(In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAfdV9IWcAA4HJG.png)
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. The Mis-Anthropic World.
A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own.
In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K.
Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi.
Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth.
Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts."
I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit."
NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process.
That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet.
Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world.
Let's go over the newest example:
The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth.
Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this.
In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released.
The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama.
In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here?
(It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that)
Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world.
Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes."
OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward!
Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast."
OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi!
But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify."
The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product.
Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO.
You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event].
So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes?
Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks.
It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again.
Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc.
This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands.
Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end.
Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market:
"THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO."
You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say.
But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated.
So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality.
Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless.
And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...?
It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans.
That is bad on any planet.
(In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAfXb85XQAAeYT1.png)
Olivia
Online
T. Przeczek🛸(✸,✸)
@PrzeczekT
BTC
Gdansk, Poland
Joined May 2016
1.5K Following
221 Followers
1.1K Posts
Two traders just made $20K+ within minutes on a fake story by NPR
Shortly ago NPR published a story claiming Samuel Alito would retire from the Supreme Court.
Traders quickly reacted to the news and sent the price to 99%.
Two traders bought 40,000 shares of NO at 9ct
Minutes later NPR retracted the story without explanation. Claiming it was published in error.
The price immediately fell back to 40%.
Both traders made a combined sum of $22,000+ and are currently selling.
One Polymarket whale just dumped this market from 71% down to 23%.📉
@Domahhhh started buying NO and with that, he flipped the market as many people followed.
5 minutes later he started buying the other side to take some profit. Pretty ironic as he has been criticizing others for pump & dumping markets.
Now UMA will most likely just vote towards the price, making it go P4 (and eventually P1).
I think it's honestly crazy that a market with 500k volume does not get clarified by Polymarket, and is left to go to UMA voting.
I don't have anything against UMA voters but these kind of situations show that for clearly ambigious markets, Polymarket should step in.
If Polymarket clarified this towards NO, I would not have any complaints, this is just not a good look in my honest opinion
Jen malé připomenutí, že podle tradice (od r. 1919) přijíždí v červnu do Versailles podepsat mírovou smlouvu ten, kdo válku prohrál.
This is amazing.
You can now get up to $150K in funding to trade on Polymarket, just like the whales.
You can now get up to $150K in funding to trade on Polymarket.
I know many of you see my 6-figure PNLs and wonder how you can ever get that kind of size, well now you have the opportunity.
Instead of needing $100K+ of your own capital to make real returns on Polymarket, you can pass an evaluation and trade with their capital for as low as $124.
@P_Fiala jaké jsou výsledky té paní? romové už neberou dávky? už nepotřebují sociální byty v centrech historických měst které následně ničí? už nezpůsobují většinu kriminality?
#Elecciones2026 | ONPE 16:00 — Segunda Vuelta Presidencial
94.6% de actas escrutadas
Conteo real: Sanchez Palomino 50.07% / Keiko Fujimori 49.93%
Proyección al 100%: KEIKO 50.12% / Sanchez 49.88%
Por que el modelo da vuelta el resultado:
Quedan 72 unidades sin escrutar. Su promedio histórico es 55.9% para Keiko, calibrado contra el patrón real de la primera vuelta (R2 = 0.93). No es suposición — es el mismo comportamiento que mostraron esas provincias hace semanas en la primera vuelta.
El factor determinante es el voto extranjero. Solo el 3.6% del exterior ha sido contado. El 96.4% restante corresponde a comunidades donde Keiko obtuvo mas del 85% en primera vuelta. Lima/Lima suma otras 886 actas pendientes proyectadas al 64% para Keiko.
Votos adicionales proyectados para Keiko:
Lima/Lima: +124,789
Chile: +46,637
Estados Unidos: +31,777
Argentina: +27,323
España: +20,652
Margen proyectado: 0.24 puntos porcentuales. Estrecho pero consistente con las ultimas cinco corridas del modelo.
Como siempre les comparto los scripts de extracción de data y análisis así como la base de datos de las corridas.https://t.co/meE6jGiZm2
@P_Fiala @MisaPopelky Me teda zradili politici ODS, vy ve vlade a primatorka vankova v Brne. Oba ODS. A kdyz jsme u te bezpecnosti, tak lepsi obranu urcite nezajistite fotkama s nemeckym srotem cemu rikate tank, nebo predrazenyma polnima kuchynema, zatimco vojaci si musi kupovat trenky na decathlonu.
@P_Fiala Alternativa babiše je kdo? jestli tato opozice tak jsem rád za Babiše.
Tomio Okamura prokazující své řídící a vůdcovské schopnosti. 🫡👍
@Amrita_one V Brne na nadrazi typek odstrcil rukou agresivniho bezdomovce, ktery ho obtezoval. Odstrcil, nikoliv uderil. Opily bezdak zavravoral a rozbil si hlavu. Typek taky dostal par let kriminalu jako neprimerena obrana. Asi stejne sjety soudce.
I’m earning +4-5% per day with almost zero risk on Polymarket
And this strategy is stupidly simple
I only trade markets that meet these strict filters:
> Probability >95%
> Spread <5¢
> Liquidity >$10k
> Ends in <1 day
I also exclude sports and crypto events because they can still reverse even at 97-99%
This leaves me with high-certainty setups where I can safely grab 4-5% in 24h or less
My filters are listed below ⬇️
Been using @PredictParity more recently to watch Polymarket trades
Usually it's hard to find interesting trades, whale activity, or suspicious flow across all of these markets
One thing way i actually use it is looking for trades with 70% concentration in one market from traders that are less than 60 days old
Makes unusual activity way easier to spot
🚨 FOR $POLY AIRDROP FARMERS
Nobody is talking about how airdrop should actually be structured.
Here is my honest take and why it matters for every active Polymarket user right now:
The platforms that got airdrops right, had one thing in common.
(Hyperliquid for example)
They rewarded real usage.
Not farming behavior designed specifically to game the criteria.
Here is what a fair $POLY distribution should look like in my opinion:
Core criteria should be three things only.
Total volume traded.
Total trade count.
Number of days active on the platform.
These three metrics together accurately reflect a genuine long-term Polymarket user.
Hard to fake.
Hard to game quickly.
Directly tied to what the platform is actually built for.
LP farming and market sponsorships should be multipliers on top of the base allocation.
Not core criteria.
Something like 1.2x or 1.3x for consistent LP providers.
The platform is a prediction market, not a liquidity farming protocol.
Making LP a core criteria incentivizes behavior that has nothing to do with the actual product.
Plenty of LP farmers already made serious money from daily rewards anyway.
The allocation percentage matters too.
20% minimum with no vesting would send a clear signal that Polymarket is serious about rewarding its community.
Hyperliquid did this and the token pumped hard because holders trusted the distribution was genuine.
$POLY has the same potential if the structure is clean and user-first.
Drag it out with vesting schedules and complex criteria and the narrative shifts fast.
Ship it clean.
Reward real users.
Watch the token react the same way HYPE did.
The formula is not complicated, just requires the right priorities.
What you think about this airdrop structure?
Full guide on how to farm it right is quoted below.
@ArmadaCR Generálové se fotí u předraženého šrotu a vojáci si musí kupovat trenky a batohy v decathlonu. ... To je dnešní AČR
Probablemente la he visto más de 100 veces y el final todavía me mata cada vez 😂😅
Day 501: $POLY is coming sooner than most people think.
This will likely be one of the biggest airdrops ever, and it’s honestly not that hard to become a top wallet.
> $3000+ profit → TOP 1.23%
> $300K all-time volume → TOP 1.73%
> $100 in LP rewards → TOP 0.29%
If you haven’t yet, I would focus on reaching $100 in LP rewards.
Takes a few days and some skill, but it’s still one of the best R/R plays in crypto right now.
Thread of "risk-free" Polymarkets where you can park your capital right now
I handpicked the safest options from arguably the most profitable bond whale on the platform
(from least APY to highest):
The Mis-Anthropic World.
A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own.
In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K.
Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi.
Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth.
Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts."
I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit."
NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process.
That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet.
Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world.
Let's go over the newest example:
The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth.
Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this.
In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released.
The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama.
In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here?
(It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that)
Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world.
Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes."
OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward!
Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast."
OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi!
But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify."
The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product.
Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO.
You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event].
So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes?
Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks.
It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again.
Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc.
This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands.
Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end.
Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market:
"THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO."
You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say.
But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated.
So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality.
Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless.
And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...?
It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans.
That is bad on any planet.
(In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. The Mis-Anthropic World.
A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own.
In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K.
Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi.
Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth.
Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts."
I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit."
NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process.
That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet.
Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world.
Let's go over the newest example:
The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth.
Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this.
In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released.
The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama.
In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here?
(It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that)
Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world.
Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes."
OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward!
Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast."
OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi!
But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify."
The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product.
Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO.
You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event].
So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes?
Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks.
It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again.
Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc.
This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands.
Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end.
Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market:
"THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO."
You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say.
But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated.
So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality.
Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless.
And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...?
It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans.
That is bad on any planet.
(In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAfdV9KXgAAOZ1u.png)
Free money alert on Polymarket 🚨
This market is already resolved with 100% voting NO, claim in 4 hours
You can get a guaranteed +0.5% return on ANY SIZE
0.5% in 4h = 1,095% APR
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