A rally from here would likely be hated with so many underexposed and an avalanche of bad news dominating the headlines.
Those are usually the best rallies.
One thing is obvious to anyone paying attention, the rest of the world isn’t going to stop pushing AI all because a few American companies said to slow down.
Talk is cheap. Action could prove catastrophic for these AI labs.
Slowing down sounds responsible until your competitors don’t. I have a feeling their actions won’t match the strong rhetoric.
$DELL A day late is still acceptable right? Signs of a short term bottom? Breadth has been fantastic today, War appears to be a short term thing, maybe this is the catalyst we need to go higher into labour day.
$AVGO earnings is important tonight.
Nobody tells you this when you start trading:
The hardest part isn't necessarily understanding charts/setups. It's the version of you that shows up when you're down.
If you look back to your most disappointing stretches, you will realize that somewhere in there, usually after a phase of market that tired you out, you broke your composure, and then your rules.. which led to mistakes.
If you really think about it, the market isn't always testing your analytical skills ie how well you can see setups, or rotations or what have you. Sometimes it's testing your temperament. Can you take 10 red days in a row and still show up on the 11th relatively unfazed and neutral? Can you remain in a positive spirit even when nothing is going your way? Can you maintain your focus on yourself even when others around you are outperforming you?
The traders who make it aren't always the ones who are smarter. They aren't the ones who are the most fearless. They just stopped treating every loss or disappointment as a verdict on who they are. Your P&L is not your identity. Your last ten trades should have no vote on your next one.
You're going to have stretches where nothing works. Everyone does. Those stretches aren't the market rejecting you. Learn how to lose well first, and part of losing well is learning how to lose less. The winning comes later, and it comes quicker than you expect once you become a better loser.
If you're in the middle of it right now, still here, still trying: that's the whole game. Keep going. Persistence always pays in the end.
Yesterday I was on a run, the sun was shining, nice podcast on.
I ran past a local special needs school that was preparing to take a class for a walk. I couldn’t help but think of these kids that will not get to experience many of the things that I do.
In that moment, I was overwhelmed with gratitude. That I can move my body, work hard at whatever I want. That myself and my family are healthy.
Life and health is such a gift.
I cannot be around people that complain or take for granted what they have. It’s always been an issue for me. People that are constantly negative, cynical or complaining about great lives that they have is a huge void.
Thank you @RealSimpleAriel for highlighting the NAAIM number, since many people talk about a high NAAIM in a super bearish way, without real data I backtested the signal.
Here we buy when NAAIM crosses above 100.
Short term choppy but hardly anything too worrying when looking at the complete dataset.
But the sharp will notice when looking at the chart, that during the last couple of years It has coincided with some dangerous spots for the market.
Chart courtesy of https://t.co/QeqFbdby0e
A re-rate is when a stock stops being priced like a slowing company and starts getting priced like a growth company again.
The returns can be insane.
$MU. $INTC. $TEAM. And today, $CRM.
Same movie every time: written off as mature, multiple compresses, growth comes back, multiple expands. You don’t just get earnings. You get earnings and a higher multiple.
That’s why these moves look too fast. The market isn’t just reacting to the quarter. It’s changing the category the stock lives in.
If software and semis can rally together tomorrow into the weekend, that could add a lot of fuel to push this market much much higher. $IGV $SOXX
Do remember Warsh speaks on Friday, but watching action tomorrow to understand how market wants to behave could be a big tell.
$QQQ closed below the open 8 days in a row into $NVDA tonight.
Do semis finally lead from here, or do we break with midterm seasonality?
Either way the job is the same. Find what's the leader if we break out, and what's weak if we don't. React, don't predict.
$QQQ closed below the open 8 days in a row into $NVDA tonight.
Do semis finally lead from here, or do we break with midterm seasonality?
Either way the job is the same. Find what's the leader if we break out, and what's weak if we don't. React, don't predict.
Trading and investing reveal all of your qualities, good or bad.
Impatience, impulsiveness, fear, greed, ego, overconfidence, insecurity, indecision, stubbornness, discipline, humility, patience, self control, adaptability.
Markets have a way of exposing all of it.