leveragedlong

trader STIRS ES MACRO CREDIT.
investor if it goes against me.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Its Taco tuesday already?

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

it's like they are creating something like United Nations. what an idea!

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

NATO official: UK leading coalition of more than 40 nations to reopen Hormuz - MS Now

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Won't be surprising is USA starts taking a toll to let traffic through the strait of hormuz. Trump can say it will be used to pay for war.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

As a observer of April 1st, I am going to fade every headline out today.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Looking at all the comments by Trump and all the denials by Iran, I am 95% sure he is not speaking about the correct middle eastern country like most of the western world. #IranWar

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Right now most of the world is sympathetic to Iran but soon the prices will go up and supply will be hit for everyday goods . Crops also are time sensitive. Perception will change very quickly.. Iran has to take the best possible deal before that inflection point. #IranWar‌

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

@EffMktHype Algos are the new dumb money!

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks about a credit bubble that has started to deflate. There's more than a few credit cockroaches. But nobody thinks the US economy is sliding into recession. The Maestro urges stoicism. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the Middle East, central banks cant really alter the outcome, so its best to provide stability – by doing nothing.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

GOLD is selling off because it has lost the marginal buyer, central banks defending currencies to sell dollars, and using reserves to procure crude supplies at any cost. #Gold #IranWar‌

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Powell could have hiked rates last week to put an end to this war. #fomc #IranWar

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

To be fair: India equity over a genuine 7–10 year horizon is probably fine even at 21x. But "probably fine in 10 years" and "great entry point right now" are completely different claims. This chart conflates the two. Intentionally or not, that's dangerous for retail investors

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

Edelweiss just put out a chart that every finfluencer and their cat is sharing. "Nifty stagnated for 18 months before → huge returns followed." It's one of the most misleading pieces of market research I've seen this year. Let me explain why. 🧵

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

And to every finfluencer, sell-side analyst, and "wealth manager"sharing this without reading past the headline: You are doing your followers a disservice.Valuation context isn't optional footnote material. It's THE variable that explains 80% of 5yr forward returns. Do better.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

@connectgurmeet @SunilBSinghania 13 rows = 5 distinct episodes. The dot-com recovery, GFC crash, and 2011 stagnation each appear 3 times. This makes the sample look large and "scientific" while disproportionately anchoring the reader on the cheapest (and highest-returning) period.

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

@connectgurmeet @SunilBSinghania absolute nonsense analysis , does not account for starting PE and valuations, many finfluencers have been sharing this "study" . Here's what happens if you buy at current PE

[leveragedlong @purplesect0r]

@connectgurmeet @SunilBSinghania The three rows showing 72–81% next-12M returns (Jul/Aug/Oct 01 starts) had Nifty forward PE at 10–12x — when the dot-com crash equities genuinely cheap. That's less than half of today's ~20–21x. returns came from valuation re-rating+earnings recovery. Neither tailwind exists now