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[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

# I backtested the Opening Range Breakout from YouTube on 5.5 years of Nasdaq data

**Video:** [Opening Range Breakout Backtested on 5 Years of Nasdaq](https://t.co/Av348mL5xy)

**The strategy:** The first 15 minutes after the open (9:30–9:45 ET) set a high and a low. Go long when price breaks above, short when it breaks below. The video claims it loses money unless you only trade mornings with a wide opening range.

**How I tested it:**
- 1-minute QQQ data, regular trading hours, Jan 2021 – Jun 2026
- One trade per day: the first breakout
- Stop at the other side of the range, otherwise exit at the close
- Converted to 1 MNQ contract, $2.50 costs per round trip, $10,000 starting capital
- "Wide range" = wider than 70% of the previous 100 days (no look-ahead). "Not wide" = all other days.
- Benchmark: holding 1 MNQ contract the whole time (buy & hold)

1/3

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@FaramirInvests Iran Boots on the Ground? Midterms cancelled?

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

29580 did not hold, took the loss

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Taking a long at MNQ 29620

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@OptionEdgeHQ Family is the most important thing. Spend good time with your parents!

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@StokPix Waiting for qqq 715.x to bounce. Will probably buy there but not options. Futures or stocks

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

(1/2)
QQQ — Intraday Analysis  Friday, October 16, 2026
🔴 Directional Bias: Bearish

QQQ is in a clear intraday downtrend. Price opened at $729.05, sold off continuously through the session, and is currently trading at $722.94 — a decline of -$6.11 (-0.84%) on the day. The structure is a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows from the open. There has been no meaningful bullish reclaim attempt — each bounce has been capped and reversed.

Structure: Price rejected the open high ($729.20) immediately and never recovered it. The entire session has printed lower highs. The intraday low of $721.38 was tested multiple times, with the last 5 bars oscillating between $721.38–$723.63, forming a tight compression near the session low — a bear flag, not a base.

Momentum: RSI on the 3-minute chart sits at 32.51, below its signal MA of 34.94 — deeply in bearish territory and not yet showing oversold reversal intent. The Trend Waves oscillator reads -3.04 / -3.39, confirming sustained downside momentum across multiple wave lengths. The Time Dilation MAs are stacked bearishly: Base Short MA 723.81 < TF1 Short 724.41 < TF2 Short 726.49 < TF3 Short 727.14 — price is trading below all of them.

Volume: Volume has been consistent and elevated on the sell-side, with the heaviest bars occurring during breakdown pushes. No signs of demand absorption.

📊 Options Market Structure

EZPZ Straddle/Strangle Levels (Today):

Expected High: $728.80  Expected Low: $722.30
VWAP: $724.50  Day Average: $726.20

Price is currently below VWAP and pressing against the expected low at $722.30 — this is the options market's implied floor for today's range. A sustained break below this level is statistically meaningful.

Options Flow — Key Prints: The flow today is heavily put-dominated at the $715 strike with multiple large ASK-side prints (bearish) totaling over $800K+ in premium across the Oct 23 and Oct 30 $715 puts. This is the most aggressively traded strike in today's flow and reflects directional bearish positioning, not hedging. Additional large prints include:

$715 Put (Oct 23) — 825 contracts, $337K premium, ASK-side 🔴 Bearish
$715 Put (Oct 23) — 4× repeat prints totaling ~$300K+ 🔴 Bearish
$755 Put (Nov 20) — 144 contracts, $500K premium, ASK-side 🔴 Bearish (large block, longer-dated protection)
$700 Put (Oct 23) — 825 contracts, BID-side (sellers of downside protection — floor acknowledgment near $700)
$750 Call (Nov 20) — 78 contracts, $53K, ASK-side 🟢 (spec call buy, isolated)

Put Wall / Call Wall: The heaviest put OI concentration is clustered at the $715 strike (near-term) and $755 strike (medium-term protective block). The $700 put selling suggests the market views that level as unlikely to be reached this week. The near-term call wall sits at $731 (Nov 20 $731C printed on ASK) and $750 (Nov 20). These overhead strikes act as magnetic resistance.

GEX / DEX Implication: With the dominant put flow concentrated at $715 and the call wall at $731+, the GEX structure is consistent with a dealer short-gamma environment between $715–$730. This amplifies moves — downside breaks accelerate, upside squeezes are capped at $730–$731. Price at $722.94 is sandwiched inside this zone, but directional flow confirms the bias is toward testing $715.

Liquidity Structure: Sweep levels from the LuxAlgo indicator show the nearest overhead liquidity pools at $724.30, $724.68, $725.35, and $727.00. Below, support sweeps exist at $720.61, $720.34, $719.65, and $718.64. A break below $721.38 (session low) would trigger a liquidity hunt through these lower levels.

⚡ Trade Setups
🔴 Highest-Conviction Bearish Setup

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@milspousewealth @HandOfCompound @jbfinancebull @OptionEdgeHQ Sorry, was in the wrong message for the reply.

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@milspousewealth @HandOfCompound @jbfinancebull @OptionEdgeHQ Thank you! That is too kind of you. I will grow some more and then will return this favor! 🍻

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Take the long here or wait for the 715 sweep?

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@HandOfCompound @milspousewealth @jbfinancebull @OptionEdgeHQ Thank you! That is too kind of you. I will grow some more and then will return this favor! 🍻

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@KGInvests_ I heard that once before i think ;) I hope that you are right!

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@KGInvests_ I guess my SOFI position will also soon be red :) Is that what you ment? :)=

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@amanpetr Yes, we live in exponential times. I wonder what we will see in 10 years from now.

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

(2/2)
Thesis: Price is pressing the expected low ($722.30) and the session low ($721.38) simultaneously. The $715 put flow is the most committed directional bet of the day. A clean break and hold below the session low opens a flush to the liquidity cluster near $719.65 and ultimately the $715 put wall.

Entry $721.38 (break + 1-minute close below session low)
Target 1 $719.65
Target 2 $715.00 (put wall / major options magnet)
Invalidation $724.50 (reclaim of VWAP)
🟢 Highest-Conviction Bullish Setup

Thesis: RSI is at 32.51 approaching oversold. The expected low ($722.30) has held multiple tests. The $700 put selling confirms smart money doesn't expect a catastrophic breakdown today. A hold of $721.38 and reclaim of VWAP sets up a mean-reversion snap toward the overhead liquidity cluster at $727.

Entry $724.51 (first 3-minute close above VWAP with momentum confirmation)
Target 1 $727.00 (liquidity sweep level / overhead resistance)
Target 2 $728.80 (expected high / session open zone)
Invalidation $721.37 (break below session low)

Overall Bias: 🔴 Bearish momentum dominates. The options flow is unambiguously positioned for lower — the $715 put wall is the magnet. Only a VWAP reclaim with volume changes the picture intraday. Favor the short side unless $724.50 is cleanly reclaimed and held.

Created with the help of @EzPzTrading.

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

@ColdMorningGrit Yes, some profits before the NQ RTH is always nice and give a good feeling :)

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Closed my FDXM long.

Entry: 25,782
Exit: 25,795 at 12:31 CEST, Oct 16 (target hit)
Result: +13 pts, +€65.00 per contract before fees

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Closed my FDXM long.

Entry: 25,781
Exit: 25,795 at 13:04 CEST, Oct 16 (target hit)
Result: +14 pts, +€70.00 per contract before fees

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Went long Mini DAX futures (FDXM).

Entry: 25,781 at 12:56 CEST, Oct 16
Target: 25,795
Stop: 25,744
Exit: no time exit, flat the same afternoon

Not a recommendation.

[QuantAlpha @QuantAlphaXXX]

Went long Mini DAX futures (FDXM).

Entry: 25,782 at 12:21 CEST, Oct 16
Target: 25,795
Stop: 25,744
Exit: no time exit, flat the same afternoon

Not a recommendation.