QuantNomad

Quant Trader | Futures & Options Analytics
Teaching AI-Powered Trading Systems
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[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Most divergence signals are inconsistent.

Price → highs/lows
Indicators → closes
That mismatch matters, especially on large candles.

I built an indicator to align both:

Source-Aligned Oscillators
Check divergence the right way.

https://t.co/IBpy3vxZL8

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Soybean oil quietly breaking out.

4Y highs + one of the steepest backwardation curves we’ve seen in a while.

After the Iran shock lit up energy, ags look like the next leg.

Tight nearby supply, curve steepening = market pulling demand forward.

Watch this space.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

TradingView just dropped an AI Copilot… so I had to test it 👀

Can it actually analyze charts and help traders — or is it just hype?

I ran it on real setups, indicators, and trends.
Some results surprised me…
🎥 Full review: https://t.co/cU1qXB9fei

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Brent is flashing a rare signal.

F1–F2 ≈ -$9.6
Roll yield ≈ -110% (record low)

This is not normal backwardation.
This is market stress.
Driven by Iran escalation + Hormuz risk →

The market is scrambling for barrels now

Longs get crushed by carry.
Physical wins.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

ETF inflows resuming = institutions stepping back in.

The recent outflows? Likely a shakeout, not a shift in narrative.

https://t.co/DXbLS3cGTu

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VIX curve back to extreme compression again.

We’ve now seen the same pattern twice in ~2 weeks:

→ prolonged compression
→ sharp vol expansion
→ rapid re-compression

The market keeps “resetting” risk instead of repricing it.
That usually means uncertainty isn’t resolved — just postponed.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VRP is rolling over after a spike �� historically a strong signal that fear is fading and equities may rebound. Positioning reset = bullish tailwind for SPX.

https://t.co/evIC2irUsa

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

The ‘one tech trade’ is clearly breaking apart — dispersion is back. This is where passive flows struggle and stock-picking starts to matter again.

https://t.co/zapEYMCow5

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VIX curve shifted slightly lower, but structure hasn’t changed.

Still extremely flat:
• Compression 0.83 (0.3 ex-front)
Market isn’t pricing a clear path — uncertainty is spread evenly across maturities.

Not calm. Just no conviction.

This kind of compression rarely lasts.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Ex-front month, the VIX curve is basically flat.

Compression across the term structure is extreme — the market has no conviction on what comes next.

This isn’t calm. It’s uncertainty.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VIX curve flattening again after Trump’s announcement.
Market still not pricing a clear path forward — hesitation > conviction.
Curve compression at 0.6 (high–low), which is very unusual for VIX.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Perpetual futures are not what you think.

They’re not just “futures without expiry” — they’re driven by funding, leverage, and positioning.

If you’re only trading price, you’re missing the real mechanics.

Full breakdown:
https://t.co/PUaMtL3sKe

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Heating Oil pushing higher, but internals are weakening:

OI down ~30% in a month → short covering

Curve still backwardated, but front deteriorating fast

Back holding → bearish steepening

Even with ongoing geopolitical risk, prompt tightness is fading.

That’s not a market pricing escalation.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Key idea:

Compression → Expansion is a regime shift

The move started
Now it’s about how far it goes next

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VIX just broke out of a rare compression regime

Curve range was ~0.6
(<2% of cases since 2004)
That’s not calm — that’s stored energy

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Scenarios:

🟢 22–25 → stabilization
🟡 28–32 → continuation
🔴 35+ → acceleration

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Final thought:

When volatility stops differentiating across time…

It usually means the market is about to
start differentiating again.
Fast.

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

VIX is doing something rare right now.

The futures curve is extremely flat —
only ~0.6 difference from front to back.
That’s not normal.

Here’s why it matters 👇

[QuantNomad @QuantNomad]

Important:

This is not a signal on its own.

But it is a condition where:

➡️ Risk becomes asymmetric
➡️ Calm can break quickly