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Things

[q @Quinbeetroot]

This account will go into hibernation in November

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@aldrin_smith1 Realistically it's just bc they are so not really ideological that a lot of media fails to give it a strong label, the ones that did called it conservative & it's stuck

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@GelidPlateau Genuinely no clue lmao, they might just hide amongst the state apparatus waiting for reprieve or Orbán to return

[q @Quinbeetroot]

Final polling graphs for the election in Hungary just gone!

Left: Independent- / opposition-aligned pollsters. On average, extremely accurate findings compared to the election

Right: Government aligned pollsters. Shamefully inaccurate, even up to the day before the election

[q @Quinbeetroot]

The overall picture looked like there was a substantial polling miss, with Tisza outperforming expectations. However, this is only because the government-aligned pollsters massively skewed the average in Fidesz's favour

Government pollsters *never* showed Tisza ahead

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@LoeveTristan Which polls do you think will be most right (and also most wrong lol)

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@MyArrse This is not Senedd polling, nor is it a full Welsh sample.

This is the crossbreak data for Wales from YouGov's last Voting Intention, with a sample of 108. This size is too small to draw conclusions from. Not only that, it's not asking about the Senedd elections lol

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@zjermitania The foreign office has some weird arabist obsession it's strange I don't understand anything they do around MENA, and govs usually go along with it

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@caibyy It's so funny and on brand for the UK that there's just a railcard anyone can get if they live in the south east

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@ThatGarthGuy Nah

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@RealAlbanianPat Ok good good

Regional subsamples in the UK generally are whack icl

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@GelidPlateau British Polling Council

And I guess so? Tbf it's actually better that more pollsters are on it, as it keeps them all honest and forces them to publish tables etc

[q @Quinbeetroot]

Complete sidenote but this poll puts the SNP at 1% among those living in the East Midlands

[Find Out Now @FindoutnowUK]

Find Out Now voting intention:
🟦 Reform UK: 32% (-)
🟢 Greens: 17% (+2)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1)
🔴 Labour: 16% (-)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-)

Changes from 22nd October
[Find Out Now, 29th October, N=3,065]

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@d_niel0nline Something I'd be v interested in seeing is whether especially people on the left (and esp green considering voters) consider themselves to be opposed to "simple solutions opposed by experts", bc Polanski has been clear that his policies don't add up by any stretch it's just vibes

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@JoshHousden @LordAPolls i mean i think it's worth also noting how Ashcroft generates his numbers. It's not a normal VI, it's rating likelihood of voting for all parties out of 100, and putting people down as their highest choice (as long as the likelihood is >50)

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@torchicperson i mean surprisingly yes

[q @Quinbeetroot]

i want my ministers to be sat on the floor, no chair, no desk, using a biro they found on the floor which barely works on toilet paper they stole from the parliament toilets

[q @Quinbeetroot]

But I thought "[taxing the wealthy] isn't about creating public investment"

[The Green Party @TheGreenParty]

Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering raising income tax next month.

Of course Labour are planning on going after working people while conveniently ignoring the super-rich who are hoarding this country's wealth.

The Green Party is clear - time to tax wealth, not work.

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@llwtydeer @rchieyes It'll make up much more, total voters are 900k+ and membership will be ~250-300k

[q @Quinbeetroot]

@JoshHousden In 2007 it was roughly between 100k & 200k who voted (~half the membership, and 8% of affiliates)