Raphael Bettin

30 years in financial markets across research, trading, advisory and investment banking. Licensed by FCA (UK) & CVM (BR)

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@robin_j_brooks Devaluing of the yen will stoke more inflation pressures (still at low levels), that will eat up debts, increase exports, cheaper YEN allows more foreigners to move in, fix labour shortages and balancing price pressures down the road, Japan's productivity improving with AI.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

#brazil #brasil #invest #economy #economia #ewz #ibov #b3 #latam

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Os bancos com as regras da Basel III terao que colocar capital adicional para poderem manter Ouro (papel e não fisico) no balance sheet.
Esse hawkish payroll pode forçar a baixa desses ativos e liberação de margem para outras outras operações. A double-whammy hit !

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Então o Ouro deveria subir se for preocupação de lockdown e panico.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Acho que com o payroll alto na sexta sinalizando o tapering provavelmente a ser anunciado am Jackson Hole, eleva para cima as expectativas para o USD, afetando negativamente o metal.
Caso houver algum evento geopolitico preocupante (Iran, North Korea,..) Ouro e USD sobem juntos

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Ouro pra baixo, USD pra cima.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@MrMBrown Perhaps any change to the ON RRP?

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@TaviCosta @CrescatMax Agree. Latam might get a kick out of this.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@TaviCosta Besides tapering MBS to cool it down, the MCU chip shortage is done, TSMC has propped up production to the point of oversupply until the end of the year, removing a big % of inflation+OPEC deal sees that oil stays in check. Banks ON RRP removes credit to lending. Stealth tapering

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@TaviCosta Perhaps partially on MBS to prevent extreme overheating. That'll be phase 1 and sounds prudent. BS could grow again even with MBS wind-down. There is no commitment to anything, but to prevent further imbalances. The MBS taper could provide room for increase BS with other assets

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@TaviCosta They are underpriced. Agree.
As the gov new spending stimulus kicks in, treasuries will issue more short term bills to finance it, that could push yields up and balance its act for now. As for runaway inflation, there may not be elements enough for that yet. USD down might do it

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@jsblokland

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@bopinion Credit is due to Sergio Ermotti's decade-long overhaul of the lender. Hamers barely stepped in.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@themotleyfool In which currency? Purchasing-Parity-Power might be compromised depending on your time frame. Commodity-linked Sector allocation can differ greatly from others.
A more expansive answer will be greatly appreciated.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@dlacalle_IA EU debt-to-gdp stands ~90% and ~98% for the Eurozone. In contrast to ~110% for the USA, ~268% for China and Japan. EU seems fine + Elections in Germany will pave the way for a pro-EU govmnt, Macron likely to win 2nd term w/ Italy's Dragui high approval, the Union seems fine.

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Green party tera mais eleitores, Annalena Baerbock tera chance de ter voz mais ativa. O ocorrido fortalece o discurso dos Greens. Poderão influenciar adopção do ESG, relaxamento fiscal sera alvo como motivo do desastre.
Schwarze Null / Debt Breaks serao revisados. Postura dovish

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@Denise_Alemanha Nord Stream 2

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@anasalhajji Agree. Oil prices are not a source of concern. Aside from your notes, the shale industry can always act as a lid to oil prices like it did back in 2014. For now their rig counts are low, they're also hedged at least ~50bbl. But if it breaks above 100 , they will step in to drill

[Raphael Bettin @RaphaelAranha_]

@mhewson_CMC Goldilocks scenatio in UK as well as in the US.
Seems like synchronized economies growing..
This could be an interesting set up going forward.