Raphaël Parent

Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) from @UniversiteLaval.
Pharmacy Owner, Entrepreneur & Investor.
Opinions are my own, not investment advice. RTs ≠ endorsements.

[Financial Times @FT]

Iceland’s prime minister called the map, which showed a US flag covering Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Iceland and other nations, 'an insult to Icelanders, Canadians and Greenlanders'. https://t.co/atqBUCB6tJ

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

This is it.
Everything learned spending millions on longevity.

From: Your Immortal Unc and Auntie.
To: Our Immortal nieces and nephews.

0. Sleep is the world's most powerful drug.
1. Be in your bed for 8 hours
2. Same bedtime every night, any time before midnight
3. Don’t eat right before bed
4. Calm foods for dinner
5. No screens 1 hour before bed
6. Avoid added sugar (be aware it’s in everything)
7. Avoid all things in an American convenience store
8. Avoid fried foods
9. Shoes off at the door
10. Eat whole foods, particularly veggies fruits nuts legumes berries
11. Walk a little after meals or air squats
12. Get your heart rate high routinely
13. Lift heavy things
14. Stretch daily
15. Water pik, floss, brush, tongue scrape, morning and night
16. Make an effort to drink water
17. Get sunlight when you wake up (UV is low)
18. Protect skin in midday sun
19. Stand up straight
20. See at least one friend once a week
21. Avoid plastic where you can (in all things)
22. Circulate air in rooms
23. When stressed, breathe, learn to calm your body
24. Go to the dentist
25. Avoid sitting for long times
26. Protect your hearing, the world is too loud
27. Alcohol is bad for you
28. Finish coffee before noon
29. Avoid bright lights after sunset
30. If obese, look into a GLP
31. Sleep in a cold room
32. Texting while driving is dangerous
33. Turn off all notifications
34. Limit social media use
35. Don’t smoke anything
36. If you struggle to sleep, read a physical book before bed
37. 1 hour before bed have a calm wind down routine: bath, read, light walk, listen to music
38. The body is a clock and loves routine. Have a daily morning and evening schedule.
39. Avoid long distance travel where you can
40. Baby steps first: incorporate new things slowly
41. Do less… most things don’t work.

Bonus points if you get your blood checked.

Start here, it will change your life.

[Jaynit @jaynitx]

In the 1920s, a Stanford psychologist tracked genius children for 50 years.

Malcolm Gladwell breaks down what he discovered:

Rich families → successful. Poor families → failures.

Not average. Failures. Genius-level IQs that produced nothing.

He spent 60 minutes at Microsoft explaining why we're wrong about success:

The psychologist was named Terman. He gave IQ tests to 250,000 California schoolchildren.

He identified the top 0.1%. Kids with IQs of 140 and above.

His hypothesis: these children would become the leaders of academia, industry, and politics.

He tracked them. And tracked them. For decades.

The results split into three groups.

The top 15% achieved real prominence. The middle group had average, moderately successful professional lives.

And the bottom group? By any measure, failures.

The difference wasn't personality. Wasn't habits. Wasn't work ethic.

It was simple: the successful geniuses came from wealthy households. The failures came from poor families.

Poverty is such a powerful constraint that it can reduce a one-in-a-billion brain to a lifetime of worse than mediocrity.

There's a concept called "capitalization rate."

It asks a simple question: what percentage of people who are capable of doing something actually end up doing that thing?

In inner city Memphis, only 1 in 6 kids with athletic scholarships actually go to college.

If our capitalization rate for sports in the inner city is 16%, imagine how low it must be for everything else.

Here's something stranger.

Gladwell read the birth dates of the 2007 Czech Junior Hockey Team:

January 3rd. January 3rd. January 12th. February 8th. February 10th. February 17th. February 20th. February 24th. March 5th. March 10th. March 26th...

11 of the 20 players were born in January, February, or March.

This isn't unique to the Czechs. Every elite hockey team in the world shows the same pattern. Every elite soccer team too.

Why?

The eligibility cutoff for youth leagues is January 1st.

When you're 10 years old, a kid born in January has 10 months of maturity on a kid born in October. That's 3 or 4 inches of height. The difference between clumsy and coordinated.

So we look at a group of 10 year olds, pick the "best" ones, give them special coaching, extra practice, more games.

We think we're identifying talent. We're just identifying the oldest.

Then we give the oldest more opportunities, and 10 years later they really are the best.

Self-fulfilling prophecy.

The capitalization rate for hockey talent born in the second half of the year? Close to zero.

We're leaving half of all potential hockey players on the table because of an arbitrary date on a calendar.

Kids born in the youngest cohort of their school class are 11% less likely to go to college.

11% of human potential squandered because we organize elementary school without reference to biological maturity.

Now here's the part about math.

Asian kids dramatically outperform Western kids in mathematics. The gap is enormous and consistent across decades of testing.

Some people say it's genetic. It's not.

It's attitudinal.

When Asian kids face a math problem, they believe effort will solve it.

When Western kids face a math problem, they believe the answer depends on innate ability they either have or don't.

Here's the proof.

The international math tests include a 120-question survey. It asks about study habits, parental support, attitudes.

It's so long most kids don't finish it.

A researcher named Erling Boe decided to rank countries by what percentage of survey questions their kids completed.

Then he compared it to the ranking of countries by math performance.

The correlation was 0.98.

In the history of social science, there has never been a correlation that high.

If you want to know how good a country is at math, you don't need to ask any math questions. Just make kids sit down and focus on a task for an extended period of time.

If they can do it, they're good at math.

Why do Asian cultures have this attitude?

Gladwell's theory: rice farming.

His European ancestors in medieval England worked about 1,000 hours a year. Dawn to noon, five days a week. Winters off. Lots of holidays.

A peasant in South China or Japan in the same period worked 3,000 hours a year.

Rice farming isn't just harder than wheat farming. It's a completely different relationship with work.

There's a Chinese proverb: "A man who works dawn to dusk 360 days a year will not go hungry."

His English ancestors would have said: "A man who works 175 days a year, dawn to 11, may or may not be hungry."

If your culture does that for a thousand years, it becomes part of your makeup.

When your kids sit down to face a calculus problem, that legacy of persistence translates perfectly.

Now consider distance running.

In Kenya, there are roughly a million schoolboys between 10 and 17 running 10 to 12 miles a day.

In the United States, that number is probably 5,000.

Our capitalization rate for distance running is less than 1%.

Kenya's is probably 95%.

The difference isn't genetic. The difference is what the culture values and where it spends its attention.

Here's the most fascinating finding.

30% of American entrepreneurs have been diagnosed with a profound learning disability.

Richard Branson is dyslexic. Charles Schwab is dyslexic. John Chambers can barely read his own email.

This isn't coincidence. Their entrepreneurialism is a direct function of their disability.

How do you succeed if you can't read or write from early childhood?

You learn to delegate. You become a great oral communicator. You become a problem solver because your entire life is one big problem. You learn to lead.

80% of dyslexic entrepreneurs were captain of a high school sports team. Versus 30% of non-dyslexic entrepreneurs.

By the time they enter the real world, they've spent their whole life practicing the four skills at the core of entrepreneurial success: delegation, oral communication, problem solving, and leadership.

Ask them what role dyslexia played in their success and they don't say it was an obstacle.

They say it's the reason they succeeded.

A disadvantage that became an advantage.

Here's what Gladwell wants you to understand:

When we see differences in success, our default explanation is differences in ability.

We forget how much poverty, stupidity, and attitude constrain what people can become.

We refuse to admit that our own arbitrary rules are leaving talent on the table.

We cling to naive beliefs that our meritocracies are fair.

The capitalization argument is liberating.

It says you don't look at a struggling group and conclude they're incapable. It says problems that look genetic or innate are often just failures of exploitation.

It says we can make a profound difference in how well people turn out.

If we choose to pay attention.

This 60 minute Microsoft talk will teach you more about success than every self-help book you've ever read combined.

Bookmark this & give it an hour today, no matter what.

[FXStreet News @FXStreetNews]

The Iran war dominates headlines.
But the real threat to the US economy? It's hiding in plain sight.
🔴 $2.1 TRILLION in private credit
🔴 9.2% default rates — the highest on record (Fitch) 🔴 $6.5B in redemption requests at Blackstone alone
A liquidity crisis is building inside the shadow banking system — and most investors aren't watching.
Apollo. Blackstone. Ares. Carlyle. KKR.
The giants are under pressure.
📉 What happens when quarterly liquidity promises meet illiquid long-term loans?
Watch the full breakdown 👇
Analysis by Clay Webster | @FXstreetUpdate #LiquidityCrisis #StockMarket #ShadowBanking #USEconomy #Investing #Finance #FinancialRisk #IranWar #CreditCrisis

[Jean Boulet @JeanBoulet10]

PL15 - PHARMACIENS

Je suis heureux d’annoncer qu’une entente de principe est intervenue entre l’AQPP et notre gouvernement afin de se pencher sur la question des coûts des médicaments de spécialités.

Les pharmaciens communautaires jouent un rôle essentiel dans l’accès aux soins et font pleinement partie de la solution.

Des enjeux ont toutefois été soulevés par certains employeurs, syndicats et assureurs concernant les honoraires réclamés par une minorité de pharmaciens et la pression exercée sur les régimes d’assurance collective. C’est pourquoi une disposition permettant l’encadrement de ces honoraires a été intégrée au projet de loi 15.

Nous comprenons les préoccupations exprimées par les pharmaciens. Un amendement sera déposé afin de retirer cette disposition du PL. En contrepartie, l’AQPP participera à des discussions tripartites avec le gouvernement et les assureurs sur la question des honoraires associés aux médicaments de spécialités.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The war is about to end.

step by step.

U.S. officials are openly blaming/distancing from Israel's recent strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure (fuel storage and refineries near Tehran hit in the last few days).

Leaks and statements (including Energy Secretary Chris Wright) make clear no U.S. plans to target Iran's oil sector, with Trump framing it as Israel's moves amid "Operation Epic Fury" successes, while U.S. gas prices spike ahead of midterms.

-> distancing from the war and creating exit

The new Iranian leader was appointed right now: The Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei (56, hardliner with deep IRGC ties) as Supreme Leader on March 8.

This comes amid fuel shortages/blackouts from the oil hits, with regime pushing IRGC loyalty to hold things together under the new leader.

-> Trump openly said the Israeli strike on the oil is pushing Iranians back to the regime. This will likely be twisted into the leader being acceptable due to Israel.

The target has shifted from total destruction to destroying the nuclear capacities: Early strikes hit command, air defenses, navy, missiles, and oil. Recent ones (last 48-72 hours) focused on nuclear, confirmed hits on covert Minzadehei weapons site, Natanz entrances, Isfahan structures, and SPND/Mojdeh labs, to neuter breakout potential.

-> Target narrowed to Nuclear, attacks going straight for them. This will be the propaganda “win”, shifting back to the original plan and reminding people of the successful summer attack. We’ll use the attacks over the last week and reframe them as a win for the safety of the Golf and weakening the regime.

France is repositioning its navy (Charles de Gaulle carrier group to Mediterranean, plus European/UK backing) to support secure shipping lanes amid Hormuz threats. Iran says the strait is open but closed to U.S./Israeli-linked ships, others pass at risk, with traffic near standstill and only handfuls crossing recently.

-> Iran indicated they would let ships through and the president apologized to the Golf countries. The world is getting ready for the straight to reopen.

All of this is pointing towards one thing.

Oil is getting out of control (exports disrupted, prices surging, Hormuz chaos), Trump knows he can’t get involved in a major/prolonged war right into midterms, he's signaled Iran is already calling for a deal ("a bit late") and expects wrap-up in weeks.

My best guess:

We (U.S.) secure or destroy all remaining nuclear storage, enrichment paths, and facilities, declare the program crippled "for the foreseeable future or destroyed", then let Israel enforce it stays gone (overflights, strikes on reconstitution) even as we promise a full U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

For this Israel saves face and full blame as the exit is built.

Iran keeps its regime (now Mojtaba + IRGC-hardened) but loses the bomb option, with conditional sanctions relief for compliance. Trump claims victory, no boots, no endless war, without midterm damage.

Keep in mind the naval and air superiority as well as the decreasing amount of available drones and missiles (both normal and ballistic) which put Iran under major pressure.

The pieces are aligning fast, driven by oil pain, leadership change, and nuclear "mission accomplished" optics.

Escalation risks linger (Iranian missiles, Gulf threats), but endgame pressure is mounting.

This scenario presents Israel with the war mission they require to sustain Bibi’s trajectory, while Trump secures a symbolic victory, and Iran manages to salvage its reputation and retain the IRGC as its leadership.

However, I genuinely hope that all parties involved are rational actors in this situation.

My primary concern is Israel’s potential to escalate the conflict and manipulate the US in this matter. It is undeniable that Israel played a significant role in this escalation.

There is a quick out, will they take it?

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them.

Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck.

UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with.

Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning.

Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities.

Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself.

Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications.

Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating.

Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next.

And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything.

Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself.

One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris.

This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again.

They will not let it happen again.

Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo.

Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.

[Banu Kıvcı Tokalı @Banu_KT]

Following Davos, the restoration of confidence in fiat currencies has created a supportive environment. In 2025, safe havens were focused on precious metals, but in 2026 the trend is shifting back toward more traditional hedging instruments such as bonds. This move is further supported by the expectation that artificial intelligence, through productivity gains, will help ease future inflationary pressures. On the negative side, under the scenario where artificial intelligence exerts a disruptive impact on business and economic models, it could potentially lead to a recession.

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

Over the past five years, the U.S. money supply expanded at an unprecedented pace at roughly a 40% increase from pre‑2020 levels as central banks responded to economic shocks with aggressive monetary easing. This surge in liquidity has raised persistent concerns among bond investors that the currency has been materially diluted, even if official inflation readings have since moderated.

Against this backdrop, many investors remain skeptical of forward‑looking inflation estimates. With government debt at record highs and fiscal trajectories that appear difficult to sustain without continued monetary support, they worry that future inflation will run higher than reported, interpreting the combination of massive money creation and heavy sovereign borrowing as a structural risk to real purchasing power.

The fact that so many financial pundits don’t get this is rather shocking.

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

"My only concern is that Jay Powell was just as resolute as Warsh when he first started in 2018, and he was forced to back down in the face of great market turbulence...," QI Research CIO @DiMartinoBooth says.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/tjmbT5ytUN

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).

These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper (which link is here: https://t.co/uze7XClE5P):

1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:

They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."

They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option"), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival").

2. Accepting coexistence

They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."

3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations

This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."

More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.

When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Fascinating geopolitical analysis by Emmanuel Todd, one of the very few great French intellectuals we have left. I added English subtitles for you.

He believes - as I do - that, fundamentally the US is accepting what he calls "defeat" against not only Russia but China as well, and that Trump is effectively trying - clumsily - to manage this defeat and to adapt the US to multipolarity.

He says that the US's defeat in Ukraine isn't like Afghanistan or Iraq but that it represents what he calls "America's first major strategic defeat of its history."

In the war, he says Russia has become "the shield of all the rest of the world who can't stand US guardianship of global finance [and] the exploitation of the working populations in the rest of the world by Westerners."

As he puts it, Russia has demonstrated "that they were able to face the whole West," and with the rise of BRICS financial systems, this represents nothing less than "the end of the American imperium" - a defeat Trump must now manage.

With regards to China he says that the US have in fact "given up" trying to contain them because the balance of power now makes it impossible. He points to "Chinese naval production that will soon make the US Navy a dwarf navy", "US aircraft carriers [that] are irrelevant facing hypersonic missiles" and the fact that China managed to "put the Americans under embargo" for rare earth exports.

Arguments that undoubtedly will sound very familiar to my readers because I make the same ones in my articles (like this one: https://t.co/VlLUGrAVAR), which I know Todd reads because, full disclosure, we know each others ��

In this picture, Todd characterizes (quite rightly) Europeans as "crazy, we are dealing with crazy people" who think they can act as winners and impose conditions despite being the biggest losers of the war.

He is particularly virulent against the media and the general intellectual climate in Europe, speaking of a "process of intellectual and moral degeneration" where "all notions of truth, of honor, of reflection" are being lost.

He says that the end of the US's global hegemony doesn't mean they won't relinquish control of what they still do control, specifically Europeans 😢

I'll let you watch the whole video for more, including his excellent analogy between Trump and former French 4th Republic President Henri Queuille: quite out-of-the-box comparison but actually not bad!

This is part of a longer video (https://t.co/LUZTAss2Ca).

They actually have an English version of the video here: https://t.co/IM61n8A5kI dubbed with AI if you prefer to watch it in English.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/PUUxSqYIv8

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Canada Is Aggressively Attacking U.S. Trade, Farmers And Workers https://t.co/wlPhGuHYqO

[CNBC International @CNBCi]

Tokenization of the market, from stocks to bonds to real estate is coming, says BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, if we can solve one problem https://t.co/7KqJiri2Jj

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

MY THEORY ON WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING

The United States tripled its money supply over the past two decades. That’s not some abstract economic trivia. That’s the foundational distortion that shaped every asset class, every risk model, every portfolio built since GFC. We spent nearly a decade pretending the cost of capital didn’t matter -- that money could be free, and the consequences deferred. The results? Mortgage rates below inflation, a stock market priced for perfection, and a generation of investors who came to believe gravity no longer applied.

Now we’re just waking up from the dream, and people are treating the hangover like it’s some unexpected injustice. As if 3% mortgage rates were a natural right. As if the $QQQ only ever goes up. But this isn’t some rogue detour. This is the return to reality. And reality hurts.

But here’s where it gets more complex -- and more dangerous. Because what we’re seeing isn’t just the result of delayed normalization. It’s not just the unwinding of pandemic stimulus or rate repression. There’s something else layered beneath the surface. And the signs aren’t subtle.

This isn’t policy drift. It’s a campaign. A strategic, targeted repositioning of America’s role in the global economy. And if you look at the moves -- tariffs, trade threats, the rhetoric around reshoring, the calculated pressure on allies -- the target becomes clear. It’s not inflation. It’s not even the bond market.

It’s China.

You don’t have to believe in conspiracy to see the throughline. Over the last couple years, the tone in Washington has shifted from cooperation to confrontation. Even the doves have turned hawkish. And for the first time in decades, the U.S. is structuring trade and capital policy not around growth -- but around LEVERAGE. Around weaponizing our position as the global buyer of last resort.

And let’s be honest: we are the demand engine. We’re the end market. China might rival us in GDP, but their economy is still built on exports -- not internal demand. Their strength relies on moving goods out, not pulling capital in. And that makes them vulnerable. Because if you want to break an export economy, you don’t just go after their goods directly. You go after EVERYONE. You raise tariffs across the board. You force the world to choose. Us or them.

You don’t get both.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. This isn’t scattershot anymore. It’s a campaign of forced alignment. Vietnam, Mexico, Europe -- they’re all feeling the pressure. Even Israel and Lesotho aren’t spared. Why? Because the point isn’t fairness. The point is forcing a break. If the entire global system orients around the U.S. consumer, then tariffs become a blunt, brutal way of redrawing the map. You want access to our markets? Play by new rules. Choose your team.

And if that’s the game being played -- not economic stewardship, but geopolitical realignment -- then no amount of earnings beats are going to stabilize markets. Because the market doesn’t just price data. It prices direction. And right now, direction is unclear. Volatility isn’t a function of fear -- it’s a function of uncertainty. And uncertainty is policy.

Which is why I’m not being aggressive about buying this dip. It’s not that I’m bearish on innovation -- the 4th industrial revolution is just getting started with names like $PLTR, $CRWD, $SNOW, $AXON, $NET, $AMZN, and $TSLA. It’s not that I doubt the long-term strength of U.S. enterprise. It’s that I don’t know the rules anymore. And neither does the market.

Capital doesn’t rush into ambiguity. It pulls back. It reassesses. It maintains optionality. And that’s what’s happening. Under the surface of every investment and every earnings reaction is the same question: can I even model what comes next?

The truth is, until China blinks -- or Trump backs down -- this is going to be the backdrop. Not because the market is broken. But because it’s working. It’s doing its job. Pricing the regime, not just the risk.

And if there’s no clarity, there’s no bid.

We saw what happened on a rumor -- markets ripped 8% in a single day. That’s how starved this market is for any sign of policy coherence. A real deal with China? The tape wouldn’t just rally. It would melt faces.

But we don’t have that headline. We have noise. We have the sense that something big is happening, but no confirmation of what it is or where it leads. And that’s not a market you trade. That’s a market you survive.

I don’t say that with cynicism. I say it with clarity. Because what we’re witnessing right now isn’t a cycle. It’s a regime shift. One that views the economic playbook as outdated. One that sees disruption not as risk, but as leverage.

So no -- this isn’t the detox we were promised. It’s not a thoughtful recalibration of America’s industrial base. It’s not an orderly unwind of global imbalance. It’s a controlled demolition, with no architectural plan for what gets built next.

And markets, for all their flaws, know better than to bet on blueprints that haven’t been drawn.

[Carl Vallée @carlvallee]

« On va défendre la liberté de choix des femmes. On va jamais changer la loi sur l’avortement. […] Je peux vous garantir qu’un gouvernement conservateur ne va jamais permettre à la loi d’être changée pour restreindre la liberté de choix des femmes. » -@PierrePoilievre

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/Xpdl8fYoBg