🏦 RateStreet Rate Outlook — week of July 2
The Bank of Canada policy rate sits at 2.25%.
Going into the July 15 decision, our engine's call is a hold — hold 66% / cut 13% / hike 21% (medium confidence).
https://t.co/7UH153xsA3
As broadly anticipated, the Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.25%
Next Bank of Canada meeting schedule:
January 28
March 18
April 29
https://t.co/mHT0rk4XGV
Employment declined by 66,000 jobs in August 2025, largely the result of a decline in part-time work. The unemployment rate rose to 7.1%.
Next Bank of Canada meeting, Sep. 17th. %⬇️
#CanadaEmployment#BankOfCanada#PolicyRate#VariableMortgageRates
https://t.co/LappRBULMZ
Canada & US market volatility charts this week
Banks and mortgage investors don't have a crystal ball, but they do like stability. News like 35% Tariffs, and massive (258K) job loss revisions likely lead to increased risk premiums on both sides of the border.
#Mortgages
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.75%
“If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”
https://t.co/w1N9UelB77
The Bank Of Canada is expected to stay put tomorrow, but perhaps what’s more interesting is the difference in predictions from the banks.
Desjardins expects 3 more cuts this year. BMO expects 3 cuts by July 2026, while RBC predicts no changes at all.
https://t.co/9CgzhbKKCt
Great question. On the surface it would appear that Seller's are slightly moderating prices, and pent-up Buyer's have had time to increase their affordability, as wages have increased.
🏡 CREA’s Canadian housing market report for June 2025:
➡️ Home sales up 2.8% May to June
➡️ Non-seasonally adjusted sales up 3.5%
➡️ MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) flat (-0.2%) month-over-month, down 3.7% year-over-year
CREA’s Report 👉 https://t.co/hgvYLq7Trt
#CanadaHousing
Canadian renters are waiting for home prices to drop before buying — they could be disappointed
https://t.co/4IVgyu6RP3
#CanadaHousing#CanadaHomePrices