submarineguy

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

For investers who are panic selling power semi related equities because of misleading technical reports, just ask yourself a simple question, are we using more electricity building and running the AI infra?
Guess who are manufacturing these LV components for the current AC/DC systems?
The answer is also simple, the same batch of companies.

Does the potential delay of a new flavour ice cream influence the entire ice cream business?
Probably not.
Does the potential delay of the new flavour ice cream stops future customer buying it when it's available? Definitely not!

The 800V DC distribution system has some pending issues such as DC protection, isolation and standerdization. This will take more time than expected. So does the adoption of the WBG power SiC/GaN devices. Again, the same batch of companies manufacture the Silicon MOSFET/IGBT components and they are the mainstream as a matter of fact for today's power eletronics systems.

Now that the power semiconductor industry is recovering from the EV hangover and embracing the rising AI infra, it's undergoing a re-evaluation. And this time window won't last long.
$IFX, $STM

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment 不论是CPO还是NPO都需要laser啊，这些人怎么想不明白，集成封装和光源不是一回事儿。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 那就是挣一波短期缺货的钱。功率半导体器件技术相对成熟，市场少有绝对寡头垄断，availability premium我觉得是远低于InP。而且这个公司现在还在切产能，EV>>AI, CSP。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 既然是availability premium，我觉得更重要的还是了解xfab的核心产品对应的市场D/S，产能bottleneck，customer ecosystem。或许有其他更了解的同行能披露一些信息。在800V供电相关的我觉得竞争对手很多，而且大部分都有自己的fab(STM, IFX, Wolf)。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Jackhe0812He @ShanghaoJin power semi欧洲龙头Infineon也在EU Chip Act，他们业务已经垂直整合了。之前合作的公司用的器件基本都是IFX, Wolf, STMicro。CPO那个封装技术我不是很懂，但是明显还在验证阶段，我觉得仅仅是这个理由只能纳入观察仓。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment 美国和瑞典从上世纪起就有各种国防、科研相关的互惠协议了。2026 MOU里提到的主要还是Defense projects，对应的是RF, SATCOM sector。对于InP substrate的valuation, 我个人觉得Market S/D >> Political factor。就算有政治背书，Sive的Glasgow fab产能跟不上就不能解决这个bottleneck，提升很有限

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

This is the guy who tried to educate the public on the semiconductor industry and short Sive while himself cannot tell the difference between MLCC and electrolytic caps. He judges the values based on the size of the components. The caps are probably the cheapest components here.

[Jason's Chips @jasonschips]

800VDC

Look at how big those MLCCs are!

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Ren_aramb you can just tap screenshot check this. Cost like nothing.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment @NingiResearch 散户赚的钱可以众筹一下让他给SIVE唱赞歌了。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@cherryPayment @NingiResearch 大家一起来嘲笑他哈哈。和X上的老哥一起做多真是有意思。What a ride!

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@NingiResearch Took the money, gotta do your job, huh?

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@ShanghaoJin 感谢分享！金老师的意思是警惕模型的performance和御三家营收不及预期，这个可能是市场泡沫破裂的信号。因为投资者大都不了解前沿LLM的发展。究竟是Agentic AI带来新一轮的boost还是bust。因为我们也不知道会不会再有GPT2>3的质变。所以最好的策略还是入局，走一步看一步，时刻保持警惕。

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@NlTR0_ @Million_Sancet That's more accurate about the GPU/CPU solutions. What I gathered is that if SHT is able to provide a scalable solutions for GPU as well, then the upside potential is much greater. For the capacity/scalability, I think it's just a matter of time for the CN Mfrs. to find a way out

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@PepInvestStocks Thanks for sharing. I am curious about their technological moat and actual qualified partnership except Sive. Now it only seems to benefit from the sive ecosystem hype. Looks like a trade>investment. Need to dig deeper.

[submarineguy @RayJohn886]

@Ren_aramb Can you share how you got to these buying power numbers? Saw them everywhere but no clarification.