Ric Colacito

Professor of Finance at UNC Chapel Hill; Faculty Director Investment Mgmt Center of the Kenan-Flagled Business School; Research Associate NBER; Editor at RAPS

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

@michaelgofman The day our jobs are gone and we are sitting on a beach drinking margaritas?

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

This summer a few junior colleagues asked me for feedback on their discussions. I realized I had a lot to say and nowhere to point them. Discussions are the one skill nobody teaches you in grad school. So I wrote it down. Ten suggestions for young scholars. 🧵

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

@michaelgofman We're not quite there, yet. Currently, AI is very good at giving comments that either end up in Appendix 42 or that are fluent on surface but shallow in content.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

@cesarspa1 @cmatthes_econ thanks!

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

Full guide here, along with every discussion I've given since 2007: https://t.co/CgGZwIIuNs

They've gotten better over time. Yours will too, if you're willing to put in the work.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

10/10 A discussion is not an ambush. Slides to the authors the night before. If you think you've found a fatal flaw, tell them privately first. You might be wrong, and finding that out in front of an audience backfires spectacularly.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

@CheJaleb @mrjahan49 Rates are likely to go up 200 points by the December meeting (i.e. 75/75/50 at the next 3 meetings). I think this will be fully priced in very soon. After that, the implied curve looks pretty flat until June-July.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

A day after the inflation awakening, implied rates keep on climbing. By early 23, the Fed will have hiked rates by an additional 200 points. Rates are expected to stay at that level for at least 6 months. Markets expectations and Fed much needed correction are finally converging.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

Remember those days? We are now on track for 4 consecutive 75bps hikes. The Fed should have seen the writing on the wall and be forthcoming about its policy.
https://t.co/4k3m4PTIID

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

@BobConn33736736 Slowly but surely markets have started factoring in Fed's policy. A bit worrisome that Fed officials took so long to figure out what they needed to do.

[Ric Colacito @RColacito]

Implied rate changes from current level for each of the next 11 FOMC meetings. Two more 75bps hikes are now a lock. Hard to believe that a little over a month ago only half of that was priced in.