The race is over. The members have spoken. And I feel good.
Congratulations to @KerryLynneFindl on her win and to my fellow contestants @iainblackbc, @yuri_fulmer and @PeterMilobar for their strong campaigns.
Thank you to my incredible team who believed in me, and to everyone who participated in this process.
Now, it’s time to beat the NDP so we can restore hope and prosperity to the province we love.
With Terrebonne potentially determining whether @MarkJCarney gets a majority or not, I thought it would be interesting to peel back the onion a bit.
The Liberals actually have a 3-to-1 spending advantage in that upcoming by-election due to a quirk in the rules.
Today, I joined Prime Minister @MarkJCarney to sign an agreement that will get shovels in the ground on all-season roads to the Ring of Fire this June, three years ahead of schedule.
We’re working together to unlock nation-building projects that will protect Canadian workers and unleash prosperity across Canada.
Find out more: https://t.co/jFry04ABdS
We are investing $4.75 million to rebuild Samuel de Champlain Provincial Park and reopen it as a year-round destination!
This will bring upgraded facilities and new winter activities to ensure visitors can look forward to new ways to enjoy our great outdoors in every season.
Our government is strengthening Ontario’s conservation authorities to ensure faster, more transparent permitting and more front-line services so that we can support economic growth and keep our communities safe from floods and natural hazards.
max scherzer’s wife’s post about their time in toronto is so sweet “out of 18 seasons in mlb none has had an impact on our lives quite like this one” 🥺🥺🥺
Trey Yesavage made $57,204 in MLB this season as a late call-up from the minors.
The Dodgers lineup made over $148M this year.
He set the World Series rookie record for strikeouts against them with 12.
My thanks to Premier Doug Ford of Ontario who called to express his condolences to the Hortman family and the people of Minnesota. In times of tragedy, I’m heartened when people of different views and even different nations can rally together around our shared humanity.
Final Update:
As I said yesterday, there really has been some movement in Ontario in the last week.
The 15-point lead the LPC held in week 1 & week 2, became a 14-point lead in week 3, which became a 13-point lead in week 4 and is now down to 10-points. 👇
N=2001 in Ontario.
I've attached a breakdown by regions that I have been using for years.
Q & A:
Q1. Can your polling be *way wrong*.
A1. My Ontario-wide polling has never been *way wrong*.
Q2. Can your polling be off by 2-points on each of the main party numbers?
A2. Yes it could. In the past it has been 2-points wrong for one party and 1-point wrong for another party (or more).
Q3. But, Nick, this time is different. All the polls will be wrong!?
A3. I hope you're all right about that - and all the polls are wrong. I really would like to see a minority government.
Q4. Whats the seat count?
A4. I don't know because I didn't do riding specific polls.
Points of interest:
- Halton-Peel Region is going to be closer than most people think.
- Momentum is in the CPC's favour and the 10-point lead in Ontario could very well be less by end of day tomorrow.
- I think the numbers shifted in Ontario a bit this week because Pierre and the CPC changed their position on EVs and they also changed their position/ clarified their position on keeping in place retaliatory Tarrifs - both appealing to Ontario voters.
3 weeks ago, I wrote the post below and I wanted to update it with my thoughts today: 🤓
Thank God, Pierre/CPC has recalibrated re: Trump/ Tariffs and that Garbage. **I already see improvement in the numbers in Ontario**. ✅
Again, I will reiterate that Trudeau is gone and everyone is relieved. 🙏
I would add that it is clear the public does not believe Carney is the same as Trudeau - this line of attack DOES NOT work and actually helps Carney. 🤔🤔
Today, *just under* 4 out of 10 people intend to vote CPC. With the new framing, increasing enthusiasm and more than 3 weeks to go - Pierre/CPC can grow to 40+.👍👍
The Carney Liberals now have 4 out of 10 voters committed to them - because Pierre/CPC wasted January-March not doing anything to establish a solid frame against Trump. This cost us seniors. Even some 'hard-Conservative' seniors. But, we can get many of them back. Their concerns re Trump remain, but now add on top, their concerns about retirement - their investments are taking a beating - TRUMP! 🤔🤔
3 weeks ago I said that the NDP would have to be under 15% and the Greens would have to be under 3% for the LPC to be at 40%... Well, that is the case *today*.
We must breathe life into the NDP. My advice remains the same - stop dreaming of seats in Quebec - and get on the fucking obvious wedge: Oil Pipelines thru Quebec. This is how you help the NDP off the mat and also wedge the Liberals and stop them in BC, Alberta, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. 💥💥💥Trump's worst nightmare are oil pipelines to the all the coasts.
3 weeks ago I said: Carney will be vetted over the next 6 weeks by the Canadian public. He's got problems.... Well with more than 3 weeks to go - Carney's double-talk, his word salads and his arrogance are all on display - lots of time to penetrate the market with doubts about him.🤢🤢🤢
But, rightly or wrongly, the super-majority believe Carney is head-and-shoulders better than Trudeau, so STOP comparing him to Trudeau - that doesn't help shake swing voters loose. Compare him to Pierre/CPC/ and the PLATFORM.🤌🤌
Here's a way to consider the problem:
If we know
Pierre > Trudeau (by a lot)
... AND the public believes
Carney>Trudeau (by a lot)
YOU WILL MAKE UP GROUND IF YOU PUSH
Pierre is > Carney
AND YOU WILL MAKE UP GROUND IF PEOPLE BELIEVE
Pierre is at least = Carney
YOU GO BACKWARDS PUSHING
Carney = Trudeau
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Some other thoughts:
Trump's sychophants who are also top BANKERS want Carney to win.... Because they are afraid of Pierre. Pierre will not back down to Trump. Pierre will defend Canada by actually Building Canada and the fucking pipelines. Carney will deal and they know it. You can't trust Carney after BROOKFIELD experience. 👎👎
The CPC has changed the podium visuals and Pierre looks and sounds like a Strong Leader - great! 💪💪
The Boots Not Suits shit is too Trumpian. But for the love of God STOP talking about the size of your rallies by antagonizing media about the size of your rallies - it's fucking TRUMP ALL OVER AGAIN - from the perspective of seniors....this ain't helping.👎👎
Pierre is not Trump. Many of us know this. But the 55+ crowd needs to know this. They want a strong leader who will fight Trump and solve these problems. ✊✊
More than 3 weeks to go is a lifetime in politics and in this campaign - anything can still happen because the crazy Fucker down south is volatile and in-turn, the electorate is volatile. 🙏
Keep working. Keep campaigning at the doors. Every vote counts.💪💪💪
If you don't like my post, my analysis or me, I don't give any fucks. 🤷🤷🤷
Winston Churchill once said “there is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” Advancing US national-security interests and saving our alliances, however imperfect, requires endurance. Americans must know the truth.
https://t.co/cTbMJgomBX
Ford’s PCs comprehensive lead in Ontario election is impressive. Leads all regions, major demos, on almost every issue. Also well ahead on best Premier. Seen as winning debates by a mile. A week to go, but hard to see how PCs get anything less than a third significant majority.
Did we miss this announcement yesterday? Where is Bonnie's full slate of candidates? How many potential candidates changed their mind yesterday?
A serious party must field candidates in every riding.